Tropical response to the Atlantic Equatorial mode: AGCM multimodel approach

On the frame of the AMMA-EU project, sensitivity experiments for an Atlantic Equatorial mode (AEM) which origin, development and damping resembles the observed one during the last decades of the 20th century, has been analysed in order to investigate the influence on the anomalous summer West African rainfall. Recent studies raise the matter of the AEM influence on the next Pacific ENSO episodes and also on the Indian Monsoon. This paper evaluates the response of four different atmospheric global circulation models, using the above-mentioned AEM sensitivity experiments, to study the tropical forcing associated with the Atlantic Niño mode. The results show a remote signal in both the Pacific and Indian basins. For a warm phase of the AEM the associated southward location of the ITCZ, with rising motions over the Equatorial Atlantic, leads to a global subsidence over the rest of the tropics, weakening the Asian Monsoon and favouring the La Niña conditions in the central Pacific. Although ocean–atmosphere coupled experiments are required to test the latter hypothesis, the present studies shows how the AEM is able to influence the rest of the tropics, a result with important implications on ENSO seasonal predictability.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of dry spell lengths in the Iberian Peninsula for the second half of the twentieth century

Summary Daily pluviometric records of 43 meteorological stations across the Iberian Peninsula have permitted a detailed analysis of dry spell patterns for the period 1951–2000 by distinguishing daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. The analyses are based on three annual series, namely the number of dry spells, N, the average dry spell length, L, and the extreme dry spell length, L _max. First, the statistical significance of local trends for the annual series of N, L and L _max has been investigated by means of the Mann-Kendall test and significant field trends have been established by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Clear signs of negative field trends are detected for N (1.0 and 10.0 mm/day) and L (0.1 mm/day). Second, the Weibull model fits well the empirical distributions of dry spell lengths for all the rain gauges, whatever the daily amount threshold, with a well ranged spatial distribution of their parameters u and k. On the basis of the Weibull distribution, return period maps for 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years have been obtained for dry spell lengths with respect to the four daily threshold levels. While for 0.1 and 1.0 mm/day the longest dry spells are expected at the south of the Iberian Peninsula, for 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day they are mostly detected at the southeast. Finally, the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells has been analysed by considering the same rain amount thresholds and different dry spell lengths at increasing intervals of 10 days. This analysis makes evident a significant negative field trend of the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells of lengths ranging from 10 to 20 days for daily amount thresholds of 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. Authors’ addresses: X. Lana, C. Serra, Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, ETSEIB, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Av. Diagonal 647 planta 11, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; M. D. Marínez, Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; A. Burgue?o, Departament de Meteorologia i Astronomia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; J. Martín-Vide, L. Gómez, Grup de Climatologia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.     

Investigation of regional climate models’ internal variability with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations over a large domain

Previous investigations on regional climate models’ (RCM) internal variability (IV) were limited owing to small ensembles, short simulations and small domains. The present work extends previous studies with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations performed with the Canadian Regional Climate Model over a large domain covering North America. The results show that the IV has no long-term tendency but rather fluctuates in time following the synoptic situation within the domain. The IV of mean-sea-level pressure (MSLP) and screen temperature (ST) show a small annual cycle with larger values in spring, which differs from previous studies. For precipitation (PCP), the IV shows a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer, as previously reported. The 10-year climatology of the IV for MSLP and ST shows a well-defined spatial distribution with larger values in the northeast of the domain, near the outflow boundary. A comparison of the IV of MSLP and ST in summer with the transient-eddy variance reveals that the IV is close to its maximum in a small region near the outflow boundary. Same analysis for PCP in summer shows that the IV reaches its maximum in most parts of the domain, except for a small region on the western side near the inflow boundary. Finally, a comparison of the 10-year climate of each simulation of the ensemble showed that the IV may have a significant impact on the climatology of some variables.     

Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. I: present climate

We present an analysis of a regional simulation of present-day climate (1981–1990) over southern South America. The regional model MM5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model. We evaluate the capability of the model in simulating the observed climate with emphasis on low-level circulation patterns and surface variables, such as precipitation and surface air mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. The regional model performance was evaluated in terms of seasonal means, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and extreme events. Overall, the regional model is able to capture the main features of the observed mean surface climate over South America, its seasonal evolution and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. The observed regional patterns of surface air temperatures (mean, maxima and minima) are well reproduced. Biases are mostly within 3°C, temperature being overestimated over central Argentina and underestimated in mountainous regions during all seasons. Biases in northeastern Argentina and southeastern Brazil are positive during austral spring season and negative in other seasons. In general, maximum temperatures are better represented than minimum temperatures. Warm bias is larger during austral summer for maximum temperature and during austral winter for minimum temperature, mainly over central Argentina. The broad spatial pattern of precipitation and its seasonal evolution are well captured; however, the regional model overestimates the precipitation over the Andes region in all seasons and in southern Brazil during summer. Precipitation amounts are underestimated over the La Plata basin from fall to spring. Extremes of precipitation are better reproduced by the regional model compared with the driving model. Interannual variability is well reproduced too, but strongly regulated by boundary conditions, particularly during summer months. Overall, taking into account the quality of the simulation, we can conclude that the regional model is capable in reproducing the main regional patterns and seasonal cycle of surface variables. The present reference simulation constitutes the basis to examine the climate change simulations resulting from the A2 and B2 forcing scenarios which are being reported in a separate study.     

Influence of Thermal Effects on the Wind Field Within the Urban Environment

Micrometeorological conditions in the vicinity of urban buildings strongly influence the requirements that are imposed on building heating and cooling. The goal of the present study, carried out within the Advance Tools for Rational Energy Use towards Sustainability (ATREUS) European research network, is the evaluation of the wind field around buildings with walls heated by solar radiation. Two computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes were validated against extensive wind-tunnel observations to assess the influence of thermal effects on model performance. The code selected from this validation was used to simulate the wind and temperature fields for a summer day in a specific region of the city of Lisbon. For this study, the meteorological data produced by a non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) were used as boundary conditions for a CFD code, which was further applied to analyze the effects of local roughness elements and thermodynamic conditions on the air flow around buildings. The CFD modelling can also provide the inflow parameters for a Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, used to evaluate the building energy budgets and to predict performance of the air-conditioning system. The main finding of the present three-dimensional analyses is that thermal forcing associated with the heating of buildings can significantly modify local properties of the air flow.     

Spatial trends in heavy metals and nitrogen deposition in Navarra (Northern Spain) based on moss analysis

A biomonitoring survey using the moss species Hypnum cupressiforme Hedw. was performed in the North of Navarra (Spain) in 2006. The levels of V, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Zr, Cd, Hg and Pb, and the total nitrogen content were determined in the samples by means of ICP-MS, CV-AA, and the Kjeldahl method. PCA analysis showed a differentiation between lithogenic (V, Cr, Mn, Ni, As and Zr) and anthropogenic elements (Mn, Cu, Zn, Cd, Hg and Pb). Spatial distribution maps were drawn using the kriging method, in order to identify the most affected areas and the main pollution sources. A similar spatial distribution was observed for the elements belonging to each group separated by the PCA, showing an important contribution from metal industries located in the Basque Country, as well as influence of long-range transboundary pollution processes. Background levels were also determined for the study area, along with the contamination factor for the different elements analysed. Mosses seemed to be good biomonitors of N deposition in areas of accumulation.     

Gas kinematics in the halo of the warm ULIRG PKS1345+12

We use long-slit spectra taken with the William Herschel Telescope on La Palma and high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging to study the gas kinematic in the halo of the ultraluminous infrared/radio galaxy PKS1345+12 (z=0.122). Our long-slit spectra show line splitting at the locations of massive star clusters ( $10^{6}<M_{\mathrm{SSC}}^{\mathrm{YSP}}<10^{7}$ M_⊙), indicating that they are moving at up to 450 km?s^?1 with respect to the local ambient gas. Given their kinematics, it is plausible that these super star clusters have been formed either in fast-moving gas streams or tidal tails that are falling back into the nuclear regions as part of the merger process, or as a consequence of jet-induced star formation linked to the extended, diffuse radio emission detected in the halo of the galaxy.     

Stellar dynamics in young clusters: the formation of massive runaways and very massive runaway mergers

In the present paper we combine an N-body code that simulates the dynamics of young dense stellar systems with a massive star evolution handler that accounts in a realistic way for the effects of stellar wind mass loss. We discuss two topics.

1. The formation and the evolution of very massive stars (with masses >120 M_⊙) is followed in detail. These very massive stars are formed in the cluster core as a consequence of the successive (physical) collisions of the 10–20 most massive stars in the cluster (this process is known as ‘runaway merging’). The further evolution is governed by stellar wind mass loss during core hydrogen and core helium burning (the WR phase of very massive stars). Our simulations reveal that, as a consequence of runaway merging in clusters with solar and supersolar values, massive black holes can be formed, but with a maximum mass ≈70 M_⊙. In low-metallicity clusters, however, it cannot be excluded that the runaway-merging process is responsible for pair-instability supernovae or for the formation of intermediate-mass black holes with a mass of several 100 M_⊙.
2. Massive runaways can be formed via the supernova explosion of one of the components in a binary system (the Blaauw scenario), or via dynamical interaction of a single star and a binary or between two binaries in a star cluster. We explore the possibility that the most massive runaways (e.g. ζ Pup, λ Cep, BD+43°3654) are the product of the collision and merger of two or three massive stars.

     

The interior structure of Mercury and its core sulfur content

Depth-dependent interior structure models of Mercury are calculated for several plausible chemical compositions of the core and of the mantle. For those models, we compute the associated libration amplitude, obliquity, tidal deformation, and tidal changes in the external potential. In particular we study the relation between the interior structure parameters for five different mantle mineralogies and two different temperature profiles together with two extreme crust density values. We investigate the influence of the core light element concentration, temperature, and melting law on core state and inner and outer core size. We show that a sulfur concentration above 10 wt% is unlikely if the temperature at the core-mantle boundary is above 1850 K and the silicate shell at least 240 km thick. The interior models can only have an inner core if the sulfur weight fraction is below 5 wt% for core-mantle boundary temperature in the 1850-2200 K range. Within our modeling hypotheses, we show that with the expected precision on the moment of inertia the core size can be estimated to a precision of about 50 km and the core sulfur concentration with an error of about 2 wt%. This uncertainty can only be reduced when more information on the mantle mineralogy of Mercury becomes available. However, we show that the uncertainty on the core size estimation can be greatly reduced, to about 25 km, if tidal surface displacements and tidal variations in the external potential are considered.