覆盖中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮模型的研究及适用

精细化风暴潮预报是目前风暴潮预报重点发展方向之一,本文首次建立起了一个覆盖整个中国沿海地区的精细化台风风暴潮数值模型,克服了以往分区域数值模型的不足,该模型在中国沿海地区的分辨率达到300m左右。模型采用了并行计算,并对2012年和2013年灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了数值检验,计算精度和计算所用时间都能够满足业务化运行的要求。本文同时还根据中国气象局、美国国家气象局等5家主要台风预报机构给出的24h台风预报,对2013年度灾害性台风风暴潮过程进行了24h数值预报检验,检验结果表明:根据中国气象局台风登陆前24h预报可以得到更准确的风暴潮预报结果,其预报结果优于其他各家预报结果。该结论可以为今后的台风风暴潮预报中台风路径的选取提供重要的参考。     

Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change

This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment.     

Geophysical exploration on the subsurface geology of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field (NE Iberian Peninsula)

We applied self-potential (SP) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to the exploration of the uppermost part of the substrate geology and shallow structure of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field, part of the European Neogene–Quaternary volcanic province. The aim of the study was to improve knowledge of the shallowest part of the feeding system of these monogenetic volcanoes and of its relationship with the subsurface geology. This study complements previous geophysical studies carried out at a less detailed scale and aimed at identifying deeper structures, and together will constitute the basis to establish volcanic susceptibility in La Garrotxa. SP study complemented previous smaller-scale studies and targeted key areas where ERT could be conducted. The main new results include the generation of resistivity models identifying dykes and faults associated with several monogenetic cones. The combined results confirm that shallow tectonics controlling the distribution of the foci of eruptive activity in this volcanic zone mainly correspond to NNW–SSE and accessorily by NNE–SSW Neogene extensional fissures and faults and concretely show the associated magmatic intrusions. These structures coincide with the deeper ones identified in previous studies, and show that previous Alpine tectonic structures played no apparent role in controlling the loci of this volcanism. Moreover, the results obtained show that the changes in eruption dynamics occurring at different vents located at relatively short distances in this volcanic area are controlled by shallow stratigraphical, structural and hydrogeological differences underneath these monogenetic volcanoes.     

Tertiary alkaline Roztoky Intrusive Complex, České středohoří Mts., Czech Republic: petrogenetic characteristics

The ?eské st?edoho?í Mts. is the dominant volcanic center of the Oh?e (Eger) rift zone. It hosts the Roztoky Intrusive Complex (RIC), which is made up of a caldera vent and intrusions of 33–28-Ma-old hypabyssal bodies of essexite–monzodiorite–sodalite syenite series accompanied by a radially oriented 30–25-Ma-old dike swarm comprising about 1,000 dikes. The hypabyssal rocks are mildly alkaline mostly foid-bearing types of mafic to intermediate compositions. The dike swarm consists of chemically mildly alkaline and rare strongly alkaline rocks (tinguaites). The geochemical signatures of the mildly alkaline hypabyssal and associated dike rocks of the RIC are consistent with HIMU mantle sources and contributions from lithospheric mantle. The compositional variations of essexite and monzodiorite can be best explained by fractional crystallization of parent magma without significant contributions of crustal material. On the other hand, the composition of monzosyenite, leuco-monzodiorite and sodalite syenite reflects fractional crystallization coupled with variable degrees of crustal assimilation. It is suggested that the parent magmas in the Oh?e rift were produced by an adiabatic decompression melting of ambient upper mantle in response to lithospheric extension associated with the Alpine Orogeny.     

Catastrophic,rainfall-induced debris flows in Andean villages of Tarapacá, Atacama Desert,northern Chile

In March 2012, during the rainy season in the Altiplano plateau, a >100-year return period rainfall event affected the deeply incised valleys of the Precordillera of the Tarapacá Region, northern Chile. This extreme event in a very arid region triggered a number of debris and mud flows that caused severe damage and destruction in several small villages along the Camiña and Tarapacá valleys. The highly vulnerable location of the villages on top of alluvial fans due to socioeconomic and cultural reasons is a key factor to explain the level of destruction in most villages. In this paper, this unusual, remarkable landslide event is described, and the hazard faced by these settlements for future rainfall episodes and possible mitigation measures are discussed.     

Relationship between Hypoxia and Macrobenthic Production in Chesapeake Bay

Human development has degraded Chesapeake Bay's health, resulting in an increase in the extent and severity of hypoxia (≤2 mg O₂ l^-1). The Bay's hypoxic zones have an adverse effect on both community structure and secondary production of macrobenthos. From 1996 to 2004, the effect of hypoxia on macrobenthic production was assessed in Chesapeake Bay and its three main tributaries (Potomac, Rappahannock, and York Rivers). Each year, in the summer (late July???early September), 25 random samples of the benthic macrofauna were collected from each system, and macrobenthic production in the polyhaline and mesohaline regions was estimated using Edgar's allometric equation. Fluctuations in macrobenthic production were significantly correlated with dissolved oxygen. Macrobenthic production was 90 % lower during hypoxia relative to normoxia. As a result, there was a biomass loss of ~7,320–13,200 metric tons C over an area of 7,720 km², which is estimated to equate to a 20 % to 35 % displacement of the Bay's macrobenthic productivity during the summer. While higher consumers may benefit from easy access to stressed prey in some areas, the large spatial and temporal extent of seasonal hypoxia limits higher trophic level transfer, via the inhibition of macrobenthic production. Such a massive loss of macrobenthic production would be detrimental to the overall health of the Bay, as it comes at a time when epibenthic and demersal predators have high-energy demands.     

The ICL Network on “Landslides and Cultural & Natural Heritage (LACUNHEN)”

In recent decades, the concept of cultural heritage has evolved into one that encompasses an understanding of the history of humanity, together with scientific knowledge and intellectual attitudes. This changing concept has prompted a subsequent re-evaluation of what constitutes the outstanding universal values of World Heritage sites and the operational methods for implementing the UNESCO World Heritage Convention. The scope has broadened from studying a single monument in isolation to one that values a multidimensional, multiregional, and inter-disciplinary approach and encapsulates vast spans of human history. Within this broader view, landslides and more generally slope instabilities are an important factor endangering cultural heritage sites, especially prehistoric sites, earth/rock monuments, and archaeological sites affected by environmental processes and degradation. Natural and cultural heritage sites, as well as cultural landscapes, are then tied into a common framework that the Geological Society of America has defined “Men’s legacy to Earth and Earth’s legacy to Man”. On the other hand, not too much effort has been expended in the past to develop conservation policies systematically integrating geological, geomorphological, and engineering geological aspects into daily practices. The purpose of the “LAndslides and CUltural & Natural HEritage” thematic Network (LACUNHEN) is to create a platform for scientists and practitioners who are ready to jointly contribute to safeguarding relevant endangered Natural and Cultural Heritage sites (e.g., Machu Picchu). They will share and disseminate their respective experience, demonstrating how these special “objects” require approaches, techniques, and solutions that go far beyond traditional civil engineering perspectives.     

Comparison of response of moss,lichens and attic dust to geology and atmospheric pollution from copper mine

Different sampling media (moss, lichen and attic dust) were used for monitoring the distribution of 15 elements, including certain trace elements, in the vicinity of an intensively exploited copper mine in the east of the Republic of Macedonia. Moss species (Hypnum cupressiforme and Campothecium lutescens), epiphytic lichens (Hypogymnia physodes and Evernia prunastri) and attic dust were collected for comparative analysis for monitoring air pollution. In both cases (lithological and anthropogenic affected areas) for the distribution of elements, the sampling media follows the expression capabilities: attic dust > moss > lichens. Enrichment factors M/L—moss vs. lichen, for plant response to elements distribution and D/L—attic dust vs. lichen, for historical response of elements distribution were significant for Cu and Ni, which were singled out as the main markers for anthropogenic and geogenic distribution. The factor analysis highlighted geogenic (F1: Ni-Cr-Cd-Fe-Al-K-Mn-Zn) and anthropogenic (F2: As-Cu-Pb) association of elements from three types of media samples. For anthropogenic affected areas, T value and F value for Cu content were significant at p < 0.05 and higher enrichment factors were obtained for lichen, moss and attic dust media (3.8, 5.0 and 5.7, respectively). Spatial distribution for element deposition (with emphasis on Cu and Ni) is not disturbed by the significant differences in the sampling media matrix. Treated sample materials (attic dust, moss, lichen) are shown to be useful in determining an anthropogenic impact, as well as the chemical properties or geological background on orographic diverse terrain in the presence of complex geological structure.