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991.
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An assessment of the likely benefits of assimilating in situ temperature (T) and salinity (S) observations from repeat glider transects and surface velocity observations from high-frequency radar arrays into an eddy-resolving ocean model is presented. The deployment of new shelf observation platforms around Australia is being undertaken through the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System program. In this study, various options for an observing system along the coast of New South Wales, Australia, are assessed for their benefits to an ocean forecast and reanalysis system. The forecast system considered here uses ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) for data assimilation. Using error estimates from the EnOI scheme, estimates of the theoretical analysis errors are calculated for different observing systems that include a range of remotely sensed and in situ observations. The results demonstrate that if HF radar observations are assimilated along with the standard components of the global ocean observing system, the analysis errors are likely to reduce by as much as 80% for velocity and 60% for T, S and sea-level in the vicinity of the observations. Owing to the relatively short along-shore decorrelation length-scales for T and S near the shelf, the glider observations are likely to provide the forecast system with a more modest gain.  相似文献   
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994.
    
By using high-resolution, low-scan-rate, all-sky CCD cameras, the SPanish Meteor Network (SPMN) is currently monitoring meteor and fireball activity on a year round basis. Here are presented just a sampling of the accurate trajectory, radiant and orbital data obtained for meteors imaged simultaneously from two SPMN stations during the continuous 2006–2007 coverage of meteor and fireball monitoring. Typical astrometric uncertainty is 1–2 arc min, while velocity determination errors are of the order of 0.1–0.5 km/s, which is dependent on the distance of each event to the station and its particular viewing geometry. The cameras have demonstrated excellent performance for detecting meteor outbursts. The recent development of automatic detection software is also providing real-time information on the global meteor activity. Finally, some examples of the all-sky CCD cameras applications for detecting unexpected meteor activity are given.  相似文献   
995.
The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.  相似文献   
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An ever increasing variety of electronic instrumentation is being brought to bear in meteor studies and analysis, with unique meteor detection challenges arising from the attempt to do automated and near real-time processing of the imagery. Recent algorithm developments in the literature have been applied and implemented in software to provide reliable meteor detection in all-sky imagers, wide-field intensified video, and narrow field-of-view telescopic systems. The algorithms that have been employed for meteor streak detection include Hough transforms with phase coded disk, localized Hough transforms with matched filtering, and fast moving cluster detection. They have found application in identifying meteor tracks in the Spanish Fireball Network all-sky images, detailed analysis of video recordings during the recent Leonid meteor storms, and development of a detection/cueing technology system for rapid slew and tracking of meteors.  相似文献   
998.
    
Flooding on the German Rhine during the 20th century was tested for trends and assessed to identify causal mechanisms driving worsening of flooding. A review of previous research outlines the range of impacts due to climate change, land‐use shifts, and river regulation. Analysis of hydrologic data, especially of the long record at Cologne, documents statistically significant increases in both flood magnitudes and frequencies. Specific‐gauge analysis, which isolates the effects of channel modification, documents that 20th century river engineering has caused little of the observed increase in flooding on the German Rhine. Precipitation records from the Rhine basin confirm that flood magnification has been driven by upstream factors, including an increase in flood‐producing precipitation of roughly 25% during the past 100 years and increases in runoff yields. In addition, agricultural land‐use records suggest that flood magnification can be partially explained by 20th century trends documenting intensification and industrialization of German agriculture. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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