土地利用变化空间模拟的进展--CLUE-S模型及其应用

土地利用变化的空间模拟是进行土地利用情景分析的重要基础。本文在介绍了国际上常用的细胞自控模型(CA)、土地利用变化及效应模型(CLUE)的基础上,重点分析了小尺度土地利用变化及效应模型(CLUE-S)的方法,并以邯郸地区为例进行了案例研究。认为CLUE-S模型采取经验模型的方法,通过建立土地利用空间分配和驱动因子之间的统计关系模拟近期土地利用变化的情景。同时也考虑了不同土地利用方式之间的竞争关系,因此可以较好地模拟小尺度地区的近期土地利用变化情景;考虑到短期或近期土地利用变化的因子主要与人类的社会经济活动有关,而社会经济因子的空间化尚存在一定难度。因此,突破这一瓶颈成为CLUE-S模型发展和应用的关键;CLUE-S模型主要解决的是不同空间尺度上的土地利用空间分配问题,在土地生产潜力评价、土地利用规划等方面具有广阔的应用前景。     

Seeing Conditions at Sutherland. Results of the 1992/93 seeing campaign

In order to decide whether the seeing conditions at SAAO/Sutherland justify the erection of a 3.5 m telescope and also to compare Sutherland with the Gamsberg/Namibia site, a seeing campaign covering 15 months has been carried out. For direct comparison with the results of the seeing campaign at Gamsberg twenty years before the same QUESTAR telescope was employed. The seeing is determined by the scattering of the star-trail exposed on a film in the focal plane of the telescope. The campaign commenced in February 1992. Up to May 1993, data for 204 nights, that is 47.3% of the total number of nights, were collected. Due to wind speeds above 30 km h^-1, 25 out of the 204 nights were not considered in the final reduction. The useful 179 nights are evenly distributed over the campaign period. The median seeing value for the whole period is = 0.52. There are differences during the year: the best season gives = 0.42, the worst = 0.67. Each night was divided into three intervals, although data for each of the three intervals were not always available. Generally, there is an improvement in the seeing during the course of a night. The results are compared to the seeing values of Gamsberg/Namibia and ESO/La Silla.     

Post‐orogenic evolution of the southern Pyrenees: constraints from inverse thermo‐kinematic modelling of low‐temperature thermochronology data

The late‐stage evolution of the southern central Pyrenees has been well documented but controversies remain concerning potential Neogene acceleration of exhumation rates and the influence of tectonic and/or climatic processes. A popular model suggests that the Pyrenees and their southern foreland were buried below a thick succession of conglomerates during the Oligocene, when the basin was endorheic. However, both the amount of post‐orogenic fill and the timing of re‐excavation remain controversial. We address this question by revisiting extensive thermochronological datasets of the Axial Zone. We use an inverse approach that couples the thermo‐kinematic model Pecube and the Neighbourhood inversion algorithm to constrain the history of exhumation and topographic changes since 40 Ma. By comparison with independent geological data, we identified a most probable scenario involving rapid exhumation (>2.5 km Myr^?1) between 37 and 30 Ma followed by a strong decrease to very slow rates (0.02 km Myr^?1) that remain constant until the present. Therefore, the inversion does not require a previously inferred Pliocene acceleration in regional exhumation rates. A clear topographic signal emerges, however: the topography has to be infilled by conglomerates to an elevation of 2.6 km between 40 and 29 Ma and then to remain stable until ca. 9 Ma. We interpret the last stage of the topographic history as recording major incision of the southern Pyrenean wedge, due to the Ebro basin connection to the Mediterranean, well before previously suggested Messinian ages. These results thus demonstrate temporally varying controls of different processes on exhumation: rapid rock uplift in an active orogen during late Eocene, whereas base‐level changes in the foreland basin control the post‐orogenic evolution of topography and exhumation in the central Pyrenees. In contrast, climate changes appear to play a lesser role in the post‐orogenic topographic and erosional evolution of this mountain belt.     

A Snapshot of the Sun Near Solar Minimum: The Whole Heliosphere Interval

We present an overview of the data and models collected for the Whole Heliosphere Interval, an international campaign to study the three-dimensional solar?Cheliospheric?Cplanetary connected system near solar minimum. The data and models correspond to solar Carrington Rotation 2068 (20 March??C?16 April 2008) extending from below the solar photosphere, through interplanetary space, and down to Earth??s mesosphere. Nearly 200 people participated in aspects of WHI studies, analyzing and interpreting data from nearly 100 instruments and models in order to elucidate the physics of fundamental heliophysical processes. The solar and inner heliospheric data showed structure consistent with the declining phase of the solar cycle. A closely spaced cluster of low-latitude active regions was responsible for an increased level of magnetic activity, while a highly warped current sheet dominated heliospheric structure. The geospace data revealed an unusually high level of activity, driven primarily by the periodic impingement of high-speed streams. The WHI studies traced the solar activity and structure into the heliosphere and geospace, and provided new insight into the nature of the interconnected heliophysical system near solar minimum.     

Spatial Concentration in Australian Regional Development,Exogenous Shocks and Regional Demographic Outcomes: a South Australian case study

ABSTRACT

As a tribute to the massive contribution of our friend and colleague Graeme Hugo to the population and settlement geography of Australian rural areas, this paper presents a longitudinal study from his home State. It forms part of a wider study of the long-term demographic relationships between Australia’s rapidly growing regional cities and their surrounding functional regions. Of particular interest is the question of what effect the accelerating concentration of population and economic activity into a given regional city will have for the longer term demographic sustainability of its functional region as a whole. Taking the case of Port Lincoln, regional capital of most of South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula, it examines the nature of change in the functional region over the period 1947–2011, and investigates the forces feeding, and partly counteracting, the population concentration process, informed by concepts of evolutionary economic geography. In particular it traces the demographic impact (particularly differential migration and ageing trends) of exogenous shocks to the region’s essentially primary productive economic base during the period of major change from 1981 to 2011.     

Blind Source Separation for Compositional Time Series

Many geological phenomena are regularly measured over time to follow developments and changes. For many of these phenomena, the absolute values are not of interest, but rather the relative information, which means that the data are compositional time series. Thus, the serial nature and the compositional geometry should be considered when analyzing the data. Multivariate time series are already challenging, especially if they are higher dimensional, and latent variable models are a popular way to deal with this kind of data. Blind source separation techniques are well-established latent factor models for time series, with many variants covering quite different time series models. Here, several such methods and their assumptions are reviewed, and it is shown how they can be applied to high-dimensional compositional time series. Also, a novel blind source separation method is suggested which is quite flexible regarding the assumptions of the latent time series. The methodology is illustrated using simulations and in an application to light absorbance data from water samples taken from a small stream in Lower Austria.

     

Can sediment supply variations create sequences? Insights from stratigraphic forward modelling

Classic sequence stratigraphy suggests depositional sequences can form due to changes in accommodation and due to changes in sediment supply. Accommodation‐dominated sequences are problematic to define rigorously, but are commonly interpreted from outcrop and subsurface data. In contrast, supply‐dominated sequences are much less commonly identified. We employ numerical stratigraphic forward modelling to compare stratal geometries forced by cyclic changes in relative sea level with stratal geometries forced by sediment discharge and water discharge changes. Our quantitative results suggest that both relative sea‐level oscillations and variations in sediment/water discharge ratio are able to form sequence‐bounding unconformities independently, confirming previous qualitative sequences definitions. In some of the experiments, the two types of sequence share several characteristics, such as an absence of coastal‐plain topset deposits and stratal offlap, something typically interpreted as the result of falling relative sea level. However, the stratal geometries differ when variations in amplitude and frequency of relative sea‐level change, sediment/water discharge ratio, transport diffusion coefficient and initial bathymetry are applied. We propose that the supply‐dominated sequences could be recognised in outcrop or in the subsurface if the observations of stratal offlap and the absence of coastal‐plain topset can be made without any strong evidence of relative sea‐level fall (e.g. descending shoreline trajectory). These quantitative results suggest that both supply‐dominated and accommodation‐dominated sequences are likely to occur in the ancient record, as a consequence of multiple, possibly complex, controls.