Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.     

Relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change

The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO₂ forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO₂-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO₂-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO₂ stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.     

Preface: Workshop on matter,astrophysics, gravitation,ions and cosmology—MAGIC23

We outline our experience in organizing the first edition of the Workshop on Matter, Astrophysics, Gravitation, Ions and Cosmology, held in virtual and in-person format, denominated MAGIC23, held from 6 to 10 March, 2023, in Praia do Rosa, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The event aimed to bring together leading academic scientists, professors, students, and research scholars for exchanging experiences and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, practical challenges, and experimental and theoretical solutions adopted in the investigation fields within the scope of the meeting. The workshop offered to the participants a platform for scientific and academic projects, partnerships, and presentation of high-quality research contributions describing original and unpublished results on topics related to matter, astrophysics, gravitation, ions, and cosmology.     

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

Opacity effects on the polarization of line emissions in astrophysical plasmas

Polarization-based line spectroscopy is a valuable tool in determining the characteristics of electron distribution functions in anisotropic plasmas. For instance, directional electrons can unevenly populate the magnetic sublevels of atomic energy levels resulting in partial polarization of the emitted spectral lines. The large dimensions of astrophysical sources raise the possibility of non-negligible self-absorption effects on spectral line properties. Alternatively, the high densities characteristic of laser-produced laboratory plasmas can also result in substantial optical depth values. We present a modeling study of He-like Fe line emissions in which we investigate the effects of radiation transport on the polarization of selected spectral lines under corona conditions.     

On the homeostasis and bistability on a Gaian planet

Geochemical disequilibrium of Earth's atmosphere is a sign of life. The fact that Earth's atmosphere is just right for life led Lovelock to propose the Gaia hypothesis: life itself regulates the environment on planetary scale in order to maintain habitability. This hypothesis is supported by the so-called Daisyworld parable, which illustrates a possible mechanism for such a self regulation. Here we revisit Daisyworld and challenge some of its conclusions from a closer examination of the model. We find that even within this simple, conceptual model of a Gaian planet there are regimes where climate is less homeostatic than on a dead planet. Furthermore, in other regimes, bistability between two climate states is found to exist due to the presence of life. This indicates that even if the Gaian stability might describe life in some planetary conditions, it need not be generic to all inhabited planets.     

Determining a tilt in Titan’s north-south albedo asymmetry from Cassini images

Analysis of Titan’s hemispheric brightness asymmetry from mapped Cassini images reveals an axis of symmetry that is tilted with respect to the rotational axis of the solid body. Twenty images taken from 2004 through 2007 show a mean axial offset of 3.8 ± 0.9° relative to the solid body’s pole, directed 79 ± 24° to the west of the sub-solar longitude. These values are consistent with recent measurements of an implied atmospheric spin axis determined from isothermal mapping by [Achterberg, R.K., Conrath, B.J., Gierasch, P.J., Flasar, F.M., Nixon, C.A., 2008. Icarus 197, 549-555].     

The rotation of Janus and Epimetheus

Epimetheus, a small moon of Saturn, has a rotational libration (an oscillation about synchronous rotation) of 5.9°±1.2°, placing Epimetheus in the company of Earth’s Moon and Mars’ Phobos as the only natural satellites for which forced rotational libration has been detected. The forced libration is caused by the satellite’s slightly eccentric orbit and non-spherical shape.Detection of a moon’s forced libration allows us to probe its interior by comparing the measured amplitude to that predicted by a shape model assuming constant density. A discrepancy between the two would indicate internal density asymmetries. For Epimetheus, the uncertainties in the shape model are large enough to account for the measured libration amplitude. For Janus, on the other hand, although we cannot rule out synchronous rotation, a permanent offset of several degrees between Janus’ minimum moment of inertia (long axis) and the equilibrium sub-Saturn point may indicate that Janus does have modest internal density asymmetries.The rotation states of Janus and Epimetheus experience a perturbation every 4 years, as the two moons “swap” orbits. The sudden change in the orbital periods produces a free libration about synchronous rotation that is subsequently damped by internal friction. We calculate that this free libration is small in amplitude (<0.1°) and decays quickly (a few weeks, at most), and is thus below the current limits for detection using Cassini images.