On the influence of the freshwater supply on the Baltic Sea mean salinity

The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea mean salinity to climatic changes of the freshwater supply is analyzed. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is about 6‰. The low salinity is an effect of a large net freshwater supply and narrow and shallow connections with the North Sea. As a result of mixing in the entrance area, a large portion of the outflowing Baltic Sea water returns with the inflowing salty water and thus lowers the salinity of the Baltic Sea deep-water considerably. This recycling of the Baltic Sea water is a key process determining the salinity of today's Baltic Sea. The sensitivity of this recycling, and thus of the Baltic Sea salinity, to climatic changes in the freshwater supply is analyzed. A simple model is formulated for the variations of the Baltic Sea freshwater content. Historical data of the freshwater supply and the salinity in the Baltic Sea are used in the model to achieve an empirical expression relating variations of the recycling of Baltic Sea water to the variations of the freshwater supply. The recycling is found to be very sensitive to the freshwater supply. We find that an increase of freshwater supply of 30% is the level above which the Baltic Sea would turn into a lake. Recent climate modeling results suggest that river runoff to the Baltic Sea may increase dramatically in the future and thus possibly put the Baltic Sea into a new state.     

Observations of shocked [FeII] and H2 line profiles in orion bullet wakes

Recent near-IR imaging of the Orion molecular cloud has revealed a complex of dense bullets, visible as [FeII] emitting HH-objects at the tips of H₂ wakes, ejected explosively from the cloud core. Having resolved individual bow-shock structures for the first time in this bright source, we have observed [FeII] 1.644µm velocity profiles of selected bullets and H₂ 1-0 S(1), 2.122µm velocity profiles for a series of positions along and across the corresponding bow-shock wakes. We present observed profiles for the bullet M42 HH1 and its associated wake and compare with theoretical bow-shock models.     

Accuracy and precision of different sampling strategies and flux integration methods for runoff water: comparisons based on measurements of the electrical conductivity

Because of their fast response to hydrological events, small catchments show strong quantitative and qualitative variations in their water runoff. Fluxes of solutes or suspended material can be estimated from water samples only if an appropriate sampling scheme is used. We used continuous in‐stream measurements of the electrical conductivity of the runoff in a small subalpine catchment (64 ha) in central Switzerland and in a very small (0·16 ha) subcatchment. Different sampling and flux integration methods were simulated for weekly water analyses. Fluxes calculated directly from grab samples are strongly biased towards high conductivities observed at low discharges. Several regressions and weighted averages have been proposed to correct for this bias. Their accuracy and precision are better, but none of these integration methods gives a consistently low bias and a low residual error. Different methods of peak sampling were also tested. Like regressions, they produce important residual errors and their bias is variable. This variability (both between methods and between catchments) does not allow one to tell a priori which sampling scheme and integration method would be more accurate. Only discharge‐proportional sampling methods were found to give essentially unbiased flux estimates. Programmed samplers with a fraction collector allow for a proportional pooling and are appropriate for short‐term studies. For long‐term monitoring or experiments, sampling at a frequency proportional to the discharge appears to be the best way to obtain accurate and precise flux estimates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Aerodynamic Drag Force Acting on Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

It is well known that the interaction of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) with the solar wind leads to an equalisation of the ICME and solar wind velocities at 1 AU. This can be understood in terms of an aerodynamic drag force per unit mass of the form F _D/M=−(ρ_e AC _D/M)(V _i−V _e)∣V _i−V _e∣, where A and M are the ICME cross-section and sum of the mass and virtual mass, V _i and V _e the speed of the ICME and solar wind, ρ_e the solar wind density, C _D a dimensionless drag coefficient, and the inverse deceleration length γ=ρ_e A/M. The optimal radial parameterisation of γ and C _D beyond approximately 15 solar radii is calculated. Magnetohydrodynamic simulations show that for dense ICMEs, C _D varies slowly between the Sun and 1 AU, and is of order unity. When the ICME and solar wind densities are similar, C _D is larger (between 3 and 10), but remains approximately constant with radial distance. For tenuous ICMEs, the ICME and solar wind velocities equalise rapidly due to the very effective drag force. For ICMEs denser that the ambient solar wind, both approaches show that γ is approximately independent of radius, while for tenuous ICMEs, γ falls off linearly with distance. When the ICME density is similar to or less than that in the solar wind, inclusion of virtual mass effects is essential.     

Thin-Shell Magnetohydrodynamic Equations for the Solar Tachocline

We present a new system of equations designed to study global-scale dynamics in the stably-stratified portion of the solar tachocline. This system is derived from the 3D equations of magnetohydrodynamics in a rotating spherical shell under the assumption that the shell is thin and stably-stratified (subadiabatic). The resulting thin-shell model can be regarded as a magnetic generalization of the hydrostatic primitive equations often used in meteorology. It is simpler in form than the more general anelastic or Boussinesq equations, making it more amenable to analysis and interpretation and more computationally efficient. However, the thin-shell system is still three-dimensional and as such represents an important extension to previous 2D and shallow-water approaches. In this paper we derive the governing equations for our thin-shell model and discuss its underlying assumptions, its context relative to other models, and its application to the solar tachocline. We also demonstrate that the dissipationless thin-shell system conserves energy, angular momentum and magnetic helicity.     

CHANGES IN U.S. NATIONAL MOBILITY LEVELS*

This paper investigates the decline in the national mobility level that occurred during 1970-1983. The effects of generation size are discussed in detail; bigger generations may move at lower rates because of the increased competition for jobs and housing. The changing age composition of the population will imply further mobility declines during coming decades if age-specific mobility rates remain constant. A consideration of anticipated changes in the size of the young adult cohort suggests that the national mobility rate may increase slightly over the next decade, before beginning a relatively modest decline during 1995-2040.     

Investigations on the runoff generation at the profile and plot scales,Swiss Emmental

This article describes an investigation on runoff generation at different scales in the forested catchment of the Sperbelgraben in the Emmental region (Swiss Prealps) where studies in the field of forest hydrology have a history of 100 years. It focuses on the analysis of soil profiles and the subsequent sprinkling experiments above them (1 m²), as well as on surface runoff measurements on larger plots (50 to 110 m²). In the Sperbelgraben investigation area, two very distinct runoff reactions could be observed. On the one hand, very high production of saturation overland flow was registered on wet areas of gleyic soils, with runoff coefficients between 0·39 and 0·94 for profile irrigation. On the other hand, almost no surface runoff was measured on Cambisols, with the exception at some sites of a hydrophobic reaction detected at the beginning of storms after dry periods (coefficients for profile irrigation: 0·01–0·16). This pattern was observed during 1 m² soil plot irrigation and on surface runoff plots. Apart from a less distinctive signal of the water‐repellent litter layer on the larger surface runoff plots, the dominant hydrological processes at the two scales are the same. The determined runoff reaction at the two scales corresponds well with information from a forest site type map describing soil and vegetation characteristics and used as a substitute for a soil map in this study. Theoretical considerations describing forest influence on flood discharge are discussed and evaluated to be in good agreement with observations. These findings are a sound foundation for application in hydrological catchment modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.