Stochastic Fracture Propagation Modelling for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Fractures and fracture networks are the fundamental components of enhanced geothermal systems and determine their technical and economic viability. A realistic fracture model that can adequately describe a fracture-stimulated reservoir is critical for subsequent flow and heat transfer analyses of the system. Fractures in these systems are essentially the product of hydraulic stimulations of the reservoir that, together with ground conditions and the local stress regime, determine how fractures are formed and propagated. This paper describes three methods for generating realistic fracture models for enhanced geothermal systems; two of them incorporate the fracture propagation process in the modelling and hence provide a stochastic fracture propagation model. The methods are: a Bayesian framework in the form of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, an extended Random Sampling Consensus model and a Point and Surface Association Consensus model. The conditioning data used in these methods are seismic events recorded during fracture stimulation. Geodynamics’ Habanero reservoir in the Cooper Basin of South Australia is used as a case study to test these methods.     

Fractional crystallization of primitive,hydrous arc magmas: an experimental study at 0.7 GPa

Differentiation of mantle-derived, hydrous, basaltic magmas is a fundamental process to produce evolved intermediate to SiO₂-rich magmas that form the bulk of the middle to shallow continental and island arc crust. This study reports the results of fractional crystallization experiments conducted in a piston cylinder apparatus at 0.7 GPa for hydrous, calc-alkaline to arc tholeiitic magmas. Fractional crystallization was approached by synthesis of starting materials representing the liquid composition of the previous, higher temperature experiment. Temperatures ranged from near-liquidus at 1,170 °C to near-solidus conditions at 700 °C. H₂O contents varied from 3.0 to more than 10 wt%. The liquid line of descent covers the entire compositional range from olivine–tholeiite (1,170 °C) to high-silica rhyolite (700 °C) and evolves from metaluminous to peraluminous compositions. The following crystallization sequence has been established: olivine → clinopyroxene → plagioclase, spinel → orthopyroxene, amphibole, titanomagnetite → apatite → quartz, biotite. Anorthite-rich plagioclase and spinel are responsible for a marked increase in SiO₂-content (from 51 to 53 wt%) at 1,040 °C. At lower temperatures, fractionation of amphibole, plagioclase and Fe–Ti oxide over a temperature interval of 280 °C drives the SiO₂ content continuously from 53 to 78 wt%. Largest crystallization steps were recorded around 1,040 °C and at 700 °C. About 40 % of ultramafic plutonic rocks have to crystallize to generate basaltic–andesitic liquids, and an additional 40 % of amphibole–gabbroic cumulate to produce granitic melts. Andesitic liquids with a liquidus temperature of 1,010 °C only crystallize 50 % over an 280 °C wide range to 730 °C implying that such liquids form mobile crystal mushes (<50 % crystals) in long-lived magmatic systems in the middle crust, allowing for extensive fractionation, assimilation and hybridization with periodic replenishment of more mafic magmas from deeper magma reservoirs.     

Building zoned ignimbrites by recycling silicic cumulates: insight from the 1,000 km<Superscript>3</Superscript> Carpenter Ridge Tuff,CO

The ~1,000 km³ Carpenter Ridge Tuff (CRT), erupted at 27.55 Ma during the mid-tertiary ignimbrite flare-up in the western USA, is among the largest known strongly zoned ash-flow tuffs. It consists primarily of densely welded crystal-poor rhyolite with a pronounced, highly evolved chemical signature (high Rb/Sr, low Ba, Zr, Eu), but thickly ponded intracaldera CRT is capped by a more crystal-rich, less silicic facies. In the outflow ignimbrite, this upper zone is defined mainly by densely welded crystal-rich juvenile clasts of trachydacite composition, with higher Fe–Ti oxide temperatures, and is characterized by extremely high Ba (to 7,500 ppm), Zr, Sr, and positive Eu anomalies. Rare mafic clasts (51–53 wt% SiO₂) with Ba contents to 4,000–5,000 ppm and positive Eu anomalies are also present. Much of the major and trace-element variations in the CRT juvenile clasts can be reproduced via in situ differentiation by interstitial melt extraction from a crystal-rich, upper-crustal mush zone, with the trachydacite, crystal-rich clasts representing the remobilized crystal cumulate left behind by the melt extraction process. Late recharge events, represented by the rare mafic clasts and high-Al amphiboles in some samples, mixed in with parts of the crystal cumulate and generated additional scatter in the whole-rock data. Recharge was important in thermally remobilizing the silicic crystal cumulate by partially melting the near-solidus phases, as supported by: (1) ubiquitous wormy/sieve textures and reverse zoning patterns in feldspars and biotites, (2) absence of quartz in this very silicic unit stored at depths of >4–5 km, and (3) heterogeneous melt compositions in the trachydacite fiamme and mafic clasts, particularly in Ba, indicating local enrichment of this element due mostly to sanidine and biotite melting. The injection of hot, juvenile magma into the upper-crustal cumulate also imparted the observed thermal gradient to the deposits and the mixing overprint that partly masks the in situ differentiation process. The CRT provides a particularly clear perspective on processes of in situ crystal-liquid separation into a lower crystal-rich zone and an upper eruptible cap, which appears common in incrementally built upper-crustal magma reservoirs of high-flux magmatic provinces.     

Analysis of coprolites from the extinct mountain goat Myotragus balearicus

Humans colonized the Balearic Islands 5–4 ka ago. They arrived in a uniquely adapted ecosystem with the Balearic mountain goat Myotragus balearicus (Bovidae, Antilopinae, Caprini) as the only large mammal. This mammal went extinct rapidly after human arrival. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the extinction of M. balearicus. For the present study ancient DNA analysis (Sanger sequencing, Roche-454, Ion Torrent), and pollen and macrofossil analyses were performed on preserved coprolites from M. balearicus, providing information on its diet and paleo-environment. The information retrieved shows that M. balearicus was heavily dependent on the Balearic box species Buxus balearica during at least part of the year, and that it was most probably a browser. Hindcast ecological niche modelling of B. balearica shows that local distribution of this plant species was affected by climate changes. This suggests that the extinction of M. balearicus can be related to the decline and regional extinction of a plant species that formed a major component of its diet. The vegetation change is thought to be caused by increased aridity occurring throughout the Mediterranean. Previous hypotheses relating the extinction of M. balearicus directly to the arrival of humans on the islands must therefore be adjusted.     

A temperature-induced reversible transformation between paratacamite and herbertsmithite

The crystal chemistry of paratacamite has been re-evaluated by studying a crystal from the holotype specimen BM86958 of composition Cu_3.71Zn_0.29(OH)₆Cl₂ using single-crystal X-ray diffraction at 100, 200, 300, 353, 393 and 423 K. At 300 K paratacamite has space group $R\bar{3}$ with unit-cell parameters a 13.644 and c 14.035 Å and exhibits a pronounced subcell, a′ = ½a and c′ = c, analogous to that of the closely related mineral herbertsmithite, Cu₃Zn(OH)₆Cl₂. Between 353 and 393 K, paratacamite undergoes a reversible phase transformation to the herbertsmithite-like substructure, space group $R\bar{3}m$ , unit-cell parameters a 6.839 and c 14.072 Å (393 K). The transformation is characterised by a gradual reduction in intensity of superlattice reflections, which are absent at 393 and 443 K. On cooling from 443 to 300 K at ~10 K min^?1, the superlattice reflections reappear and the refined structures ( $R\bar{3}$ ) of the initial and recovered 300 K states are almost identical. The complete reversibility of the transformation establishes that paratacamite of composition Cu_3.71Zn_0.29(OH)₆Cl₂ is thermodynamically stable at ambient temperatures. The nature of the rhombic distortion of the M(2)O₆ octahedron is discussed by considering two possibilities that are dependent upon the nature of cation substitution in the interlayer sites.     

Assessing impact of urban impervious surface on watershed hydrology using distributed object-oriented simulation and spatial regression

In this study, we investigated the relationship between watershed characteristics and hydrology using high spatial resolution impervious surface area (ISA), hydrologic simulations and spatial regression. We selected 20 watersheds at HUC 12 level with different degrees of urbanization and performed hydrologic simulation using a distributed object-oriented rainfall and runoff simulation model. We extracted the discharge per area and ratio of runoff to base flow from simulation results and used them as indicators of hydrology pattern. We derived percentage of ISA, distance from ISA to streams, and stream density as the watershed characteristics to evaluate the relationship with hydrology pattern in watersheds using ordinary least square, spatial error and spatial lag regression models. The comparison indicates that spatial lag regression model can achieve better performance for the evaluation of relationship between ratio of runoff to base flow and watershed characteristics, and that three models provide similar performance for the evaluation of relationship between discharge per area and watershed characteristics. The results from regression analyses demonstrate that ISA plays an important role in watershed hydrology. Ignorance of spatial dependence in analyses will likely cause inaccurate evaluation for relationship between ISA and watershed hydrology. The hydrologic model, regression methods and relationships between watershed characteristics and hydrology pattern provide important tools and information for decision makers to evaluate the effect of different scenarios in land management.     

Observations on the crystal structures of lueshite

Laboratory powder XRD patterns of the perovskite-group mineral lueshite from the type locality (Lueshe, Kivu, DRC) and pure NaNbO₃ demonstrate that lueshite does not adopt the same space group (Pbma; #57) as the synthetic compound. The crystal structures of lueshite (2 samples) from Lueshe, Mont Saint-Hilaire (Quebec, Canada) and Sallanlatvi (Kola, Russia) have been determined by single-crystal CCD X-ray diffraction. These room temperature X-ray data for all single-crystal samples can be satisfactorily refined in the orthorhombic space group Pbnm (#62). Cell dimensions, atomic coordinates of the atoms, bond lengths and octahedron tilt angles are given for four crystals. Conventional neutron diffraction patterns for Lueshe lueshite recorded over the temperature range 11–1,000 K confirm that lueshite does not adopt space group Pbma within these temperatures. Neutron diffraction indicates no phase changes on cooling from room temperature to 11 K. None of these neutron diffraction data give satisfactorily refinements but suggest that this is the space group Pbnm. Time-of-flight neutron diffraction patterns for Lueshe lueshite recorded from room temperature to 700 °C demonstrate phase transitions above 550 °C from Cmcm through P4/mbm to \(Pm\overline{3} m\) above 650 °C. Cell dimensions and atomic coordinates of the atoms are given for the three high-temperature phases. The room temperature to 400 °C structures cannot be satisfactorily resolved, and it is suggested that the lueshite at room temperature consists of domains of pinned metastable phases with orthorhombic and/or monoclinic structures. However, the sequence of high-temperature phase transitions observed is similar to those determined for synthetic NaTaO₃, suggesting that the equilibrated room temperature structure of lueshite is orthorhombic Pbnm.     

Crack Initiation and Crack Propagation in Heterogeneous Sulfate-Rich Clay Rocks

Brittle fracture processes were hypothesized by several researches to cause a damage zone around an underground excavation in sulfate-rich clay rock when the stress exceeds the crack initiation threshold, and may promote swelling by crystal growth in newly formed fractures. In this study, laboratory experiments such as unconfined and confined compression tests with acoustic emission monitoring, and microstructural and mineralogical analyses are used to explain brittle fracture processes in sulfate-rich clay rock from the Gipskeuper formation in Switzerland. This rock type typically shows a heterogeneous rock fabric consisting of distinct clayey layers and stiff heterogeneities such as anhydrite layers, veins or nodules. The study showed that at low deviatoric stress, the failure behavior is dominated by the strength of the clayey matrix where microcracks are initiated. With increasing deviatoric stress or strain, growing microcracks eventually are arrested at anhydrite veins, and cracks develop either aligned with the interface between clayey layers and anhydrite veins, or penetrate anhydrite veins. These cracks often link micro-fractured regions in the specimen. This study also suggest that fracture localization in sulfate-rich clay rocks, which typically show a heterogeneous rock fabric, does not take place in the pre-peak range and renders unstable crack propagation less likely. Sulfate-rich clay rocks typically contain anhydrite veins at various scales. At the scale of a tunnel, anhydrite layers or veins may arrest growing fractures and prevent the disintegration of the rock mass. The rock mass may be damaged when the threshold stress for microcrack initiation is exceeded, thus promoting swelling by crystal growth in extension fractures, but the self-supporting capacity of the rock mass may be maintained rendering the possibility for rapidly propagating instability less likely.     

Adaptation to climate change in the insurance sector: examples from the UK,Germany and the Netherlands

Adaptation to climate change, particularly flood risks, may come to pose large challenges in the future and will require cooperation among a range of stakeholders. However, there presently exists little research especially on the integration of the private sector in adaptation. In particular, recently developed state programs for adaptation have so far been focused on the public sector. Insurance providers may have much to contribute as they offer other parts of society services to appropriately identify, assess and reduce the financial impacts of climate change-induced risks. This study aims to explore how the institutional distribution of responsibility for flood risk is being renegotiated within the UK, Germany and Netherlands. Examining how the insurance industry and the public sector can coordinate their actions to promote climate change adaptation, the study discusses how layered natural hazard insurance systems may result from attempts to deal with increasing risks due to increasing incidences of extreme events and climate change. It illustrates that concerns over the risks from extreme natural events have prompted re-assessments of the current systems, with insurance requiring long-term legislative frameworks that defines the objectives and responsibilities of insurers and the different political authorities.     

“Washed away”—assessing community perceptions of flooding and prevention strategies: a North Queensland example

This article explored the perceptions of residents of a regional city in North Queensland of how to remain safe during flood events. It also explored reasons for and how to prevent risk-taking behaviour in floodwater using the protection motivation theory (PMT). PMT is a psychological theory which has recently been applied to assess behaviour during floods and was used as a framework to analyse the themes of responses to the online survey. The online survey was conducted prior to the wet season of 2011/2012 with 130 Townsville residents participating. The results indicate that about half of respondents (55 %) had some experience with floods of which driving through floodwater (38 %) was the most common type of flood experience listed and was more common amongst male respondents. Respondents’ advice to keep friends and family safe during floods was consistent with “coping appraisal”, which would improve their ability to cope with the flood. Prior experiences with floodwater influenced the reasons given for why people drive through floodwater and were taken to be indicative of an actor/observer bias. Respondents who had experience driving through floodwater (the actors) indicate how the context of the situation can influence decision-making, whereas those respondents who had no personal experience of driving through floodwater (the observers) were more likely to cite low perceived vulnerability of harm as a motivator. Prevention strategies focused on structural mechanisms to block access, information provision and punishment of offenders. It is suggested that in communities which regularly experience flooding, timely and context-specific reminders of the dangers inherent in floodwater along with the type, effectiveness and cost of protective action could minimise the public’s contact with floodwater and prove useful regardless of past experiences.