REDD+ readiness process in Cameroon: an analysis of multi-stakeholder perspectives

Cameroon has been a keen participant in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+) negotiations since 2005 and has engaged in activities to enhance the implementation of REDD+. This article reviews progress on REDD+ readiness in Cameroon based on a multiple REDD+ functions framework. Results show that some progress has been made in terms of planning and coordination, institutional development, and the development of some REDD+ projects. Absence of a legal framework, inadequate procedures for stakeholder participation, slow progress in the development of a national strategy, monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) challenges, and weak financing remain prominent constraints. Despite having one of the slowest REDD Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP) processes in the Congo Basin, stakeholders feel strong ownership because the R-PP was done almost entirely by Cameroonian experts. Some opportunities for improving REDD+ can be considered going forward, including the establishment of procedures for a broader participatory process, speeding up the operationalization of the National Observatory on Climate Change, making use of the ongoing forestry law reform, consideration of a carbon concessions concept, tapping from international initiatives to build on MRV, and improving benefit sharing and financing through the development of an appropriate and decentralized mechanism. Enhancing these opportunities is fundamental for successful REDD+ implementation in Cameroon.

Policy relevance

This article offers a new multidimensional approach to assessing the REDD+ readiness process in Cameroon. This critical assessment, which is done using six key functions, provides an opportunity for enhanced understanding of the process by policy makers, decision makers, and professionals with a view to enabling improvements in the readiness process. Furthermore, the article proffers a series of opportunities that the government and other relevant stakeholders can capitalize on to overcome current hurdles affecting the REDD+ readiness process. It is hoped that policy makers driving the REDD+ process in Cameroon will be able to incorporate the findings of this research into their strategic policy, formulated to advance the REDD+ readiness process. More importantly, it is hoped that the multidimensional framework applied in this study could be useful for assessing REDD+ in similar contexts in the Congo Basin.     

Public perceptions of rainfall change in India

People’s perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability—including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather—was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change.     

A Velocity Dealiasing Scheme for C-band Weather Radar Systems简

A dealiasing algorithm for radar radial velocity observed by C-band Doppler radars is presented as an extension of an existing S-band dealiasing algorithm. This has operational significance in that many portable and many commercial broadcast radars, as well as approximately one half of the Chinese weather radar network （CINRAD）, are C-band radars. With a wavelength of about 5 cm, the Nyquist interval of C-band radars is just about one half that of S-band radars （wavelength of about 10 cm） and thus has more velocity folding. The proposed algorithm includes seven modules to remove noisy data, find the starting radials, dealias velocities, and apply least squares error checking in both the radial and azimuth directions. The proposed velocity dealiasing method was applied to one widespread rain case and three strong convective cases from radars operating in China. It was found that, on average, 92.95% of the aliased radial velocity data could be correctly de-aliased by the algorithm, resulting in 96.65% of the data being valid.     

The meso-scale drivers of temperature extremes in high-latitude Fennoscandia

Extreme temperatures are key drivers controlling both biotic and abiotic processes, and may be strongly modified by topography and land cover. We modelled mean and extreme temperatures in northern Fennoscandia by combining digital elevation and land cover data with climate observations from northern Finland, Norway and Sweden. Multivariate partitioning technique was utilized to investigate the relative importance of environmental variables for the variation of the three temperature parameters: mean annual absolute minima and maxima, and mean annual temperature. Generalized additive modeling showed good performance, explaining 84–95 % of the temperature variation. The inclusion of remotely sensed variables improved significantly the modelling of thermal extremes in this system. The water cover variables and topography were the most important drivers of minimum temperatures, whereas elevation was the most important factor controlling maximum temperatures. The spatial variability of mean temperatures was clearly driven by geographical location and the effects of topography. Partitioning technique gave novel insights into temperature-environment relationship at the meso-scale and thus proved to be useful tool for the study of the extreme temperatures in the high-latitude setting.     

Atmospheric circulation as a factor for air temperatures in Bulgaria

The research period is 1950–2012, and includes data for air temperatures in 21 Bulgarian stations. Two circulation indices, covering the same period and showing west–east or south–north directions of transport of air masses, were calculated. Statistical methods were used in the study. The results show a significant positive trend in average annual air temperatures in almost the entire territory of Bulgaria with the exception of its eastern-northeastern part. The warming occurs mainly in March, June and July, with some stations having significant positive values also in January, May and August. The zonal index reveals an insignificant increase of western transport of air masses in the cold half of the year (October–April) and strengthening of the eastern transport in the rest of the year. The meridional index shows an increase of the northern transport of air masses over the entire year and this is particularly visible in March, June, August and September. Correlation coefficients indicate that atmospheric circulation has leading role in determination of air temperatures during the period from November to April. Western transport of air masses leads to higher temperatures in spring, autumn and winter and to lower temperatures in summer. The influence of ENSO on atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria is weak, with a time lag of 2 months. El Niño is associated with increased western and northern transport of air masses, while La Niña is associated with increased eastern and southern transport of air masses over southeastern Europe.     

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.     

Diapycnal heat flux and mixed layer heat budget within the Atlantic Cold Tongue

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Atlantic are crucial for climate variability within the tropical belt. Despite this importance, state-of-the-art climate models show a large SST warm bias in this region. Knowledge about the seasonal mixed layer (ML) heat budget is a prerequisite for understanding SST mean state and its variability. Within this study all contributions to the seasonal ML heat budget are estimated at four locations within the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) that are representative for the western (0°N, 23°W), central (0°N, 10°W) and eastern (0°N, 0°E) equatorial as well as the southern (10°S, 10°W) ACT. To estimate the contribution of the diapycnal heat flux due to turbulence an extensive data set of microstructure observations collected during ten research cruises between 2005 and 2012 is analyzed. The results for the equatorial ACT indicate that with the inclusion of the diapycnal heat flux the seasonal ML heat budget is balanced. Within the equatorial region, the diapycnal heat flux is essential for the development of the ACT. It dominates over all other cooling terms in the central and eastern equatorial ACT, while it is of similar size as the zonal advection in the western equatorial ACT. In contrast, the SST evolution in the southern ACT region can be explained entirely by air-sea heat fluxes.     

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Avalanche and landslide simulation using the material point method: flow dynamics and force interaction with structures

In this paper, the material point method (MPM) is presented as a tool for simulating large deformation, gravity-driven landslides. The primary goal is to assess the interaction of these flow-like events with the built environment. This includes an evaluation of earthen mounds when energy dissipating devices are placed in the path of a snow avalanche. The effectiveness of the embankments is characterized using displacement, velocity, mass, and energy measures. A second example quantifies the force interaction between a landslide and a square rigid column. Multiple slide approach angles are considered, and various aspects of the impact force are discussed.     

Buried pockmarks on the Top Chalk surface of the Danish North Sea and their potential significance for interpreting palaeocirculation patterns

Three-dimensional (3D) seismic data from the southern Danish North Sea were used to analyse the morphology and spatial distribution of depressions in the Danian Chalk deposit. Previously, these depressions were either interpreted as karst structures or pockmarks. The observed depressions occur in an interval from 25 ms below to 12 ms above the Top Chalk surface. Three types of depressions were differentiated based on their plan-view geometry and their degree of symmetry: Type 1, comprising sub-circular and symmetrical depressions, is the dominant group (ca. 70 %). Type 2, elongated and symmetrical depressions, represents only a small fraction (ca. 5 %). The elongated and asymmetrical depressions of Type 3 compose ca. 25 %. In cross section, each depression type can be either characterised by a V- or a U-shape. The maximum size of the depressions ranges from 50 to 580 m, with an average internal depth of 10 m. We interpret the depressions as pockmarks formed by the expulsion of biogenic or thermogenic fluids at the Danian seafloor. Likely, the initial form of the pockmarks has been circular (Type 1) and was subsequently modified for Types 2 and 3 to an elongated form by currents. The long axis of the pockmarks is interpreted to represent the effective current direction. The inferred direction is sub-parallel to the palaeobathymetric contours. The 3D seismic interpretation of pockmarks presented in this paper contributes to the understanding of fluid migration and palaeocirculation patterns during the sedimentation of the terminal Chalk Group in the southern Danish North Sea.