Relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change

The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO₂ forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO₂-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO₂-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO₂ stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.     

Watershed-scale vegetation,water quantity,and water quality responses to wildfire in the southern Appalachian mountain region,United States

Wildfires are landscape scale disturbances that can significantly affect hydrologic processes such as runoff generation and sediment and nutrient transport to streams. In Fall 2016, multiple large drought-related wildfires burned forests across the southern Appalachian Mountains. Immediately after the fires, we identified and instrumented eight 28.4–344 ha watersheds (four burned and four unburned) to measure vegetation, soil, water quantity, and water quality responses over the following two years. Within burned watersheds, plots varied in burn severity with up to 100% tree mortality and soil O-horizon loss. Watershed scale high burn severity extent ranged from 5% to 65% of total watershed area. Water quantity and quality responses among burned watersheds were closely related to the high burn severity extent. Total water yield (Q) was up to 39% greater in burned watersheds than unburned reference watersheds. Total suspended solids (TSS) concentration during storm events were up to 168 times greater in samples collected from the most severely burned watershed than from a corresponding unburned reference watershed, suggesting that there was elevated risk of localized erosion and sedimentation of streams. NO₃-N concentration, export, and concentration dependence on streamflow were greater in burned watersheds and increased with increasing high burn severity extent. Mean NO₃-N concentration in the most severely burned watershed increased from 0.087 mg L⁻¹ in the first year to 0.363 mg L⁻¹ (+317%) in the second year. These results suggest that the 2016 wildfires degraded forest condition, increased Q, and had negative effects on water quality particularly during storm events.     

Analytical solutions for advective–dispersive solute transport in double‐layered finite porous media

Analytical solutions for advection and dispersion of a conservative solute in a one‐dimensional double‐layered finite porous media are presented. The solutions are applicable to five scenarios that have various combinations of fixed concentration, fixed flux and zero concentration gradient conditions at the inlet and outlet boundaries that provide a wide number of options. Arbitrary initial solute concentration distributions throughout the media can be considered via explicit formulations or numerical integration. The analytical solutions presented have been verified against numerical solutions from a finite‐element‐based approach and an existing closed‐form solution for double‐layered media with an excellent correlation being found in both cases. A practical application pertaining to advective transport induced by consolidation of underlying sediment layers on contaminant movement within a capped contaminated sediment system is presented. Comparison of the calculated concentrations and fluxes with alternative approaches clearly illustrates the need to consider advection processes. Consideration of the different features of contaminant transport due to varying pore‐water velocity fields in primary consolidation and secondary consolidation stages is achieved via the use of non‐uniform initial concentration distributions within the proposed analytical solutions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of drought over the past two millennia using near-shore sediment cores from a Canadian boreal lake

Lack of long-term studies on drought in the boreal region of northwest Ontario limits our ability to assess the vulnerability of this region to climate change. We investigated changes in diatoms, scaled chrysophytes, and sedimentary pigments in two near-shore cores from Gall Lake to infer limnological and water-level changes over the last two millennia. The two coring locations, at modern water depths of 7.5 and 11.5 m, were selected to contrast inferences for past lake level based on distance from the modern water-depth boundary between predominantly benthic and planktonic diatom assemblages in surface sediments (6.0 m). Diatom-inferred depth inferences were more variable in the core from 7.5-m water depth, consistent with the hypothesis that the greatest changes occurred at water depths closest to the benthic:planktonic boundary. Both sites revealed a pronounced drought from ~AD 950 to 1300, synchronous with the medieval climate anomaly (MCA). This finding suggests a northeast expansion of the arid MCA into northwest Ontario, extending the known spatial extent of this megadrought. Scaled chrysophytes and sedimentary pigments suggest a recent increase in thermal stratification. Our findings indicate this region is more susceptible to changes in moisture than was previously suspected based on the instrumental record for the past century.     

TOURISM DEVELOPMENT ON VANCOUVER ISLAND: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CORE-PERIPHERY MODEL *

This paper examines tourism development on Vancouver Island, B.C. in terms of the core-periphery approach to regional planning. It examines whether a core area (Victoria) is willing to share its tourism business with the rest of the island, and then focuses on the situation in a peripheral region (the Cowichan Valley Regional District–CVRD). A discriminant analysis of CVRD residents reveals they have different views regarding tourism's potential and future in their region. A follow-up analysis, reflecting a change in the scale of enquiry and local core-periphery conditions, shows residents'perceptions and priorities will change according to their respective area groupings. This analysis reveals that residents of a peripheral region, who are expected to participate in and welcome tourism development initiatives developed by senior levels of government, will in fact have different opinions regarding the industry and its potential. These differences are linked to present levels of tourism activity within the periphery and the varying community aspirations linking tourism's development potential with local needs and priorities.     

Setting new thermal standards for transitional and coastal (TraC) waters

The construction of a new generation of coastal power stations in the UK and other western European countries has highlighted the absence of robust standards for thermal discharges to transitional and coastal waters. The proposed discharge volumes are greater than hitherto, yet there has been little independent critical examination of their potential impact, whilst much of the existing guidance has been adapted from freshwater practice. This review considers the available knowledge on the tolerance and behaviour of fish and other marine biota to heated effluents. Appropriate ways are suggested of grouping fish species to reflect their sensitivity to thermal effects. The plethora of existing standards are considered and their validity assessed in a framework of predicted seawater temperature rise. Those species or groups of organisms most likely to be affected are identified and finally specific recommendations for thermal standards consistent with long term sustainability are proposed.     

Seasonality in nutrient concentrations in Galveston Bay

In order to investigate factors controlling nutrient cycling in the shallow and turbid coastal ecosystem of Galveston Bay, data from: (1) the Texas Water Commission (TWC) database 1980–1989, and (2) salinity transects in 1989 and 1993 are presented and analyzed. Statistical regression and time-series analysis were carried out on data acquired by TWC between 1980 and 1989, in an attempt to establish seasonally of nutrient and chlorophyll-a (chl.-a.) concentrations in the bay and to determine factors which regulate these concentrations.A strong seasonality was found for phosphorus and chl.-a. in the upper and mid-bay stations. A recurring maximum for phosphate occurred in September and a chl.-a. maximum occurred regularly in March–April. It is hypothesized that benthic regeneration of phosphorus at the end of summer is responsible for the phosphate maximum. The inverse correlation of the partition coefficient (K_d) for phosphate with the concentration of suspended particulate matter (SPM), coupled to a strong enrichment of phosphate in suspended particles at low SPM concentrations, indicates additional control by geochemical and physical processes such as particle sorting and/or particle-colloid interactions. Nitrate is inversely correlated with salinity at the upper and mid-bay stations, indicating the Trinity River is a major source.Nutrient concentrations in the lower bay (East and West Bay stations) are considerably lower and less predictable, as they are not correlated with salinity or temperature. Data from the 1989 and 1993 transects confirm the yearly maximum in phosphate concentration in late summer months, with peak concentrations in the upper Trinity Bay. It is concluded that despite possible phosphate buffering by physical and geochemical mechanisms, relatively large concentration maxima recur regularly every year during the summer, possibly caused by a benthic source of phosphate.     

GeoSurveillance: a GIS-based system for the detection and monitoring of spatial clusters

This article introduces a software package named GeoSurveillance that combines spatial statistical techniques and GIS routines to perform tests for the detection and monitoring of spatial clustering. GeoSurveillance provides both retrospective and prospective tests. While retrospective tests are applied to spatial data collected for a particular point in time, prospective tests attempt to incorporate the dynamic nature of spatial patterns via analyzing time-series data to detect emergent clusters as quickly as possible. This article will outline the structure of GeoSurveillance as well as describe the statistical cluster detection methods implemented in the software. It concludes with an illustration of the use of the software to analyze the spatial pattern of low birth weights in Los Angeles County, California.      

Plumes,subaxial pipe flow,and topography along the Mid-Oceanic Ridge

If plate thickness depends on crustal age, the region of extensive partial melting below the spreading axis will be wider around fast-spreading ridges. The melt region creates a subaxial conduit channeling partial melts away from ridge-centered hot spots. The channel is here modeled by an elliptical pipe of semiminor (vertical) axis 2 × 10⁶ cm (20 km) and semimajor (horizontal) axis KS, where S is spreading half-rate (cgs) and K is a constant of magnitude 10¹⁴ to 10¹⁵ seconds. This simple analytical model is used to explain the observation that maximum hot spot elevations on the Mid-Oceanic Ridge fall dramatically with increasing spreading rate (there are no Icelands or Afars on the East Pacific Rise!). A hot spot under a fast-spreading ridge has a broad pipe in which to discharge its partial melts; hence, only a slight topographic gradient and a low elevation is needed to discharge the mass flux rising out of the deeper mantle at the hot spot center. A second factor is that partial melts are “used up” faster in the accretion process on fast-spreading ridges. In the simple analytical model, both factors operating together explain the rapid fall of hot spot heights with increasing spreading half-rate. This result indirectly helps confirm the idea of horizontal pipe flow below the Mid-Oceanic Ridge.A theoretical topographic profile through a hot spot on the Mid-Oceanic Ridge is derived from the assumption that the pressure — i.e., topographic — gradient at a distance x from the hot spot is sufficient to supply all the accreting lithosphere downstream of x, out to x_n, the limit of topographic hot spot influence. The predicted profile is quadratic in x and concave upward, and resembles several observed profiles where neighboring hot spots are not so close as to confuse the profiles. Some observed profiles are more nearly linear or even convex upward. This could be explained, for example, by downstream increases in viscosity or decreases in pipe dimensions.A hot spot on a ridge spreading at much less than 1 cm/yr half-rate would produce an enormous elevation of the ridge axis, according to our model, because the pipe would be very narrow. Such a large topographic high would create a large gravity potential which would cause the plates to move apart faster, thereby widening the pipe, and reducing the topographic high. The system of ridges and hot spots may thus be self-regulating with respect to plate speeds; this could explain why spreading half-rates on the Mid-Oceanic Ridge are in many areas as low as 1.0 cm/yr but very rarely as low as 0.5 cm/yr.