Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Micropogonias undulatus</Emphasis>) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia

We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of Atlantic croaker in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 × 800 spatial grid of 1-km² cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were specified daily for each grid cell and repeated for each year of the simulation. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and the movement behavior of juveniles and adults was modeled based on temperature and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure effect submodels that converted time-varying exposures to low DO to reduced hourly growth, increased hourly mortality, and reduced annual fecundity. Results showed that 100 years of either mild or intermediate hypoxia produced small reductions in population abundance, while repeated severe hypoxia caused a 19% reduction in long-term population abundance. Relatively few individuals were exposed to low DO each hour, but many individuals experienced some exposure. The response was dominated by a 5% average reduction in annual fecundity of individuals. Under conditions of random sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years occurring in proportion to their historical frequency, the model predicted a 10% decrease in the long-term population abundance of croaker. A companion paper substitutes hourly DO values from a three-dimensional water quality model for the idealized hypoxia and results in a more realistic population reduction of about 25%.     

Thermo-tectonic history of Ryoke Basement in Hohi volcanic zone, northeast Kyushu, Japan: Constraints from fission track thermochronology

Abstract Apatite and zircon fission track ages from Ryoke Belt basement in northeast Kyushu show late Cretaceous, middle to late Eocene, middle Miocene and Quaternary groupings. The basement cooled through 240 ± 25°C, the closure temperature for fission tracks in zircon, mainly during the interval 74-90 Ma as a result of uplift and denudation, the pattern being uniform across northeast Kyushu. In combination with published K-Ar ages and the Turonian-Santonian age of sedimentation in the Onogawa Basin, active suturing along the Median Tectonic Line from 100-80 Ma, at least, is inferred. Ryoke Belt rocks along the northern margin of Hohi volcanic zone (HVZ) cooled rapidly through ∼100°C to less than 50°C during the middle Eocene to Oligocene, associated with 2.5-3.5 km of denudation. The timing of this cooling follows peak heating in the Eocene-Oligocene part (Murotohanto subbelt) of the Shimanto Belt in Muroto Peninsula (Shikoku) inferred previously, and coincides with the 43 Ma change in convergence direction of the Pacific-Eurasian plate and the demise of the Kula-Pacific spreading centre. Ryoke Belt rocks along the southern margin of HVZ have weighted mean apatite fission track ages of 15.3 ± 3.1 Ma. These reset ages are attributed to an increase in geothermal gradient in the middle Miocene combined with rapid denudation and uplift of at least 1.4 km. These ages indicate that heating of the overriding plate associated with the middle Miocene start of subduction of hot Shikoku Basin lithosphere extended into the Ryoke Belt in northeast Kyushu. Pleistocene apatite fission track ages from Ryoke Belt granites at depth in the centre of HVZ are due to modern annealing in a geothermal environment.     

Carbon isotopes and iodine concentrations in a Mississippi River delta core recording land use, sediment transport, and dam building in the river's drainage basin

Sedimentary material from coastal and nearshore areas in the Mississippi Delta region are comprised of different organic carbon sources with diverse ages that require isotopic and elemental records for resolving the various sources of plant residues. Carbon isotopic ((13)C, (14)C) values were used to differentiate contributions from plants using the C3, C4, and/or CAM (crassulacean acid metabolism) carbon fixation pathways., and iodine concentrations indicated that wetland plant residues are a significant source of organic carbon in a sediment core from the Mississippi River delta region collected at a 60 m water depth. This sediment core had been extensively described in Oktay et al. [Oktay, S.D., Santschi, P.H., Moran, J.E., Sharma, P., 2000. The (129)Iodine Bomb Pulse Recorded in Mississippi River delta Sediments: Results from Isotopes of I, Pu, Cs, Pb, and C. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 64 (6), 989-996.] and significantly, includes unique features that had not previously been seen in the marine environment. These special features include a plutonium isotopic close-in fallout record that indicates a purely terrestrial source for these sediment particles and the elements associated with it, and a distinct iodine isotopic peak (as well as peaks for plutonium and cesium isotopes) that indicate little bioturbation in this core. Our carbon isotopic and iodine data can thus be compared to published records of changes in drainage basin land use, river hydrology, and hydrodynamic sorting of suspended particles to elucidate if these changes are reflected in nearshore sediments. This comparison suggests a significant contribution for organic carbon (OC) from C4 plants to these sediments during the 1950's to early 1960's. Relative older carbon isotopes, and episodically high iodine concentrations (up to 34 ppm) were observed during this time period that (1) indicate sediment deposition that is coincident with the times of major hydrological changes induced from dam and levee building in both the upper and lower reaches of the Mississippi River drainage basin, and (2) suggest episodic organic carbon deposition from wetland plant residues.     

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Geochemical and isotope data from the Acatlán Volcanic Field, western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt: Origin and evolution

The Quaternary Acatlán Volcanic Field (AVF) is located at the western edge of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB). This region is related to the subduction of the Pacific Cocos and Rivera plates beneath the North American plate since the late Miocene. AVF rocks are products of Pleistocene volcanic activity and include lava flows, domes, erupted basaltic andesite, trachyandesite, trachydacite, and rhyolite of calc–alkaline affinity. Most rocks show depletion in high field-strength elements and enrichment in large ion lithophile elements and light rare earth elements as is typical for magmas in subduction-related volcanic arcs. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values range from 0.70361 to 0.70412, while Nd values vary from +2.3 to +5.2. Sr–Nd isotopic data plot along the mantle array. On the other hand, lead isotope compositions (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=18.62–18.75, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.57–15.64, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=38.37–38.67) give evidence for combined influences of the upper mantle, fluxes derived from subducted sediments, and the upper continental crust involved in magma genesis at AVF. Additionally δ¹⁸O whole rock analyses range from +6.35‰ in black pumice to +10.9‰ in white pumice of the Acatlán Ignimbrite. A fairly good correlation is displayed between Sr as well as O isotopes and SiO₂ emphasizing the effects of crustal contamination. Compositional and isotopic data suggest that the different AVF series derived from distinct parental magmas, which were generated by partial melting of a heterogeneous mantle source.     

Halite and sylvite as solid inclusions in high-grade metamorphic rocks

Solid inclusions of halite and sylvite, formed during regional and contact metamorphism have been identified by microscopy and by electron microprobe analysis in rocks from Campolungo, Switzerland and Cornone di Blumone, Italy. The solid inclusions occur in several of the major minerals crystallized during metamorphism and have been observed as idiomorphic crystals and dendrites. The compositions measured in 100 analyses from Campolungo, Switzerland and 40 analyses from Cornone di Blumone, Italy extend across the two-phase region in the system, KCl-NaCl, indicating that the salt inclusions are high temperature precipitates. In both localities compositionally zoned and unzoned crystals have been found. Measured compositions on the temperature maximum of the two-phase region indicate at least 500° C which can be compared with 500°±20° C determined by Mercolli (1982) and Walther (1983) from the Mg content of calcites from Campolungo. The solid inclusions have been trapped apart from CO₂-rich and saline, H₂O-rich fluid inclusions which have been described by Mercolli (1982) as the earliest preserved fluid inclusions in the rocks. The early precipitation of salt minerals at Campolungo indicates that fluids were saturated with NaCl and KCl at 500° C and pressures of 2,000 bars or higher. Similar relationships exist between solid and fluid inclusions in the rocks of Cornone di Blumone which formed at temperatures as high as 800° C and pressures between 0.5 and 1 kilobar (Ulmer 1983). The entrapment of halite and sylvite as solid inclusions preserves the composition of the minerals which may therefore be useful as geothermometers.     

The passivation of calcite by acid mine water. Column experiments with ferric sulfate and ferric chloride solutions at pH 2

Column experiments, simulating the behavior of passive treatment systems for acid mine drainage, have been performed. Acid solutions (HCl or H₂SO₄, pH 2), with initial concentrations of Fe(III) ranging from 250 to 1500 mg L⁻¹, were injected into column reactors packed with calcite grains at a constant flow rate. The composition of the solutions was monitored during the experiments. At the end of the experiments (passivation of the columns), the composition and structure of the solids were measured. The dissolution of calcite in the columns caused an increase in pH and the release of Ca into the solution, leading to the precipitation of gypsum and Fe–oxyhydroxysulfates (Fe(III)–SO₄–H⁺ solutions) or Fe–oxyhydroxychlorides (Fe(III)–Cl–H⁺ solutions). The columns worked as an efficient barrier for some time, increasing the pH of the circulating solutions from 2 to 6–7 and removing its metal content. However, after some time (several weeks, depending on the conditions), the columns became chemically inert. The results showed that passivation time increased with decreasing anion and metal content of the solutions. Gypsum was the phase responsible for the passivation of calcite in the experiments with Fe(III)–SO₄–H⁺ solutions. Schwertmannite and goethite appeared as the Fe(III) secondary phases in those experiments. Akaganeite was the phase responsible for the passivation of the system in the experiments with Fe(III)–Cl–H⁺ solutions.     

The distribution of tritium and CFCs in the Weddell Sea during the mid-1980s

Transient tracer data (tritium, CFC11 and CFC12) from the southern, central and northwestern Weddell Sea collected during Polarstern cruises ANT III-3, ANT V-2/3/4 and during Andenes cruise NARE 85 are presented and discussed in the context of hydrographic observations. A kinematic, time-dependent, multi-box model is used to estimate mean residence times and formation rates of several water masses observed in the Weddell Sea.Ice Shelf Water is marked by higher tritium and lower CFC concentrations compared to surface waters. The tracer signature of Ice Shelf Water can only be explained by assuming that its source water mass, Western Shelf Water, has characteristics different from those of surface waters. Using the transient nature of tritium and the CFCs, the mean residence time of Western Shelf Water on the shelf is estimated to be approximately 5 years. Ice Shelf Water is renewed on a time scale of about 14 years from Western Shelf Water by interaction of this water mass with glacial ice underneath the Filchner-Ronne Ice shelf. The Ice Shelf Water signature can be traced across the sill of the Filchner Depression and down the continental slope of the southern Weddell Sea. On the continental slope, new Weddell Sea Bottom Water is formed by entrainment of Weddell Deep Water and Weddell Sea Deep Water into the Ice Shelf Water plume. In the northwestern Weddell Sea, new Weddell Sea Bottom Water is observed in two narrow, deep boundary currents flowing along the base of the continental slope. Classically defined Weddell Sea Bottom Water (θ ≤ −0.7°C) and Weddell Sea Deep Water (−0.7°C ≤ θ ≤ 0°C) are ventilated from the deeper of these boundary currents by lateral spreading and mixing. Model-based estimates yield a total formation rate of 3.5Sv for new Weddell Sea Bottom Water (θ = −1.0°C) and a formation rate of at least 11Sv for Antarctic Bottom Water (θ = −0.5°C).     

Nonhydrostatic effects and the determination of icy satellites’ moment of inertia

We compare the moment of inertia (MOI) of a simple hydrostatic, two layer body as determined by the Radau–Darwin Approximation (RDA) to its exact hydrostatic MOI calculated to first order in the parameter q = Ω²R³/GM, where Ω, R, and M are the spin angular velocity, radius, and mass of the body, and G is the gravitational constant. We show that the RDA is in error by less than 1% for many configurations of core sizes and layer densities congruent with those of solid bodies in the Solar System. We then determine the error in the MOI of icy satellites calculated with the RDA due to nonhydrostatic effects by using a simple model in which the core and outer shell have slight degree 2 distortions away from their expected hydrostatic shapes. Since the hydrostatic shape has an associated stress of order ρΩ²R² (where ρ is density) it follows that the importance of nonhydrostatic effects scales with the dimensionless number σ/ρΩ²R², where σ is the nonhydrostatic stress. This highlights the likely importance of this error for slowly rotating bodies (e.g., Titan and Callisto) and small bodies (e.g., Saturn moons other than Titan). We apply this model to Titan, Callisto, and Enceladus and find that the RDA-derived MOI can be 10% greater than the actual MOI for nonhydrostatic stresses as small as ∼0.1 bars at the surface or ∼1 bar at the core–mantle boundary, but the actual nonhydrostatic stresses for a given shape change depends on the specifics of the interior model. When we apply this model to Ganymede we find that the stresses necessary to produce the same MOI errors as on Titan, Callisto, and Enceladus are an order of magnitude greater due to its faster rotation, so Ganymede may be the only instance where RDA is reliable. We argue that if satellites can reorient to the lowest energy state then RDA will always give an overestimate of the true MOI. Observations have shown that small nonhydrostatic gravity anomalies exist on Ganymede and Titan, at least at degree 3 and presumably higher. If these anomalies are indicative of the nonhydrostatic anomalies at degree 2 then these imply only a small correction to the MOI, even for Titan, but it is possible that the physical origin of nonhydrostatic degree 2 effects is different from the higher order terms. We conclude that nonhydrostatic effects could be present to an extent that allows Callisto and Titan to be fully differentiated.