The effect of horizontal resolution on ocean surface heat fluxes in the ECMWF model

Annual mean ocean surface heat fluxes have been studied as a function of horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model (cycle 33) and compared with Oberhuber's COADS (1959–1979) based empirical estimates. The model has been run at resolutions of T21, T42, T63 and T106 for 15 months with prescribed monthly varying climatological SST and sea ice. The T42 simulation was extended to 2 years, which enabled us to determine that many differences between the resolution runs were significant and could not be explained by the fact that individual realizations of an ensemble of years can be expected to give different estimates of the annual mean climate state. In addition to systematic differences between the modeled and the observed fluxes, the simulated fields of surface shortwave and longwave radiation showed much more spatial variability than the observed estimates. In the case of the longwave radiation this may be attributable more to deficiencies in the observations than to errors in the model. The modeled latent and sensible heat fields were in better agreement with observations. The primary conclusion concerning the dependence of ocean surface fluxes on resolution is that the T21 simulation differed significantly from the higher resolution runs, especially in the tropics. Although the differences among the three higher resolution simulations were generally small over most of the world ocean, there were local areas with large differences. It appears, therefore, that in relation to ocean surface heat fluxes, a resolution greater than T42 may not be justified for climate model simulations, although the locally large differences found between the higher resolution runs suggest that convergence has not been achieved everywhere even at T106.     

Climate and chronic respiratory disease in Sydney - The case of asthma

Asthma remains a major health concern for many Australians. Currently mortality and morbidity rates are very high and have increased substantially over the last 10 years. Within Sydney there is a distinctive pattern of asthma risk with both inner-city and outer western suburbs figuring prominently.This paper looks at asthma within the Sydney metropolitan area. It pays particular attention to the direct and indirect effects of weather and climate on the disease, as well as the interplay between a number of biophysical and socio-economic factors and the role played by outdoor and indoor air pollution. In particular it discusses the relationship between topography, meteorology, air pollution and asthma in Sydney. Finally, it argues that climate change will greatly influence the prevalence and distribution of the disease.     

The Kwinana Coastal Fumigation Study: III – Meteorological and Turbulence Modelling on Selected Days

The Kwinana Coastal Fumigation Study took place inearly 1995 at Kwinana near Perth in Western Australia.The study involved surface and elevated meteorologicaland plume fumigation measurements in sea-breeze flowsnear the coast, and has yielded a comprehensive dataset that is suitable for assessing meteorological andplume dispersion models. In this paper, wesimulate the meteorology and turbulence on four casestudy days, and compare model results with thedetailed surface and aircraft measurements takenduring the study. These days had surface synopticwinds ranging from southerly to northeasterly, witheither stable or near-neutral temperature profilesover the sea.The model used was based on that developed by Hurley(Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 83, 43–73, 1997), but extended here to allow domain nesting,optional non-hydrostatic simulations, and a vegetativecanopy at the surface. The model was forced bystandard weather service synoptic data, and thesimulations have captured the essential features ofthe strong sea-breeze circulation observed on thesedays. The boundary-layer structure over the sea waspredicted to be near-neutral or stable in agreementwith the observations on the particular day. The windspeed and direction in the sea-breeze flow weregenerally predicted well, although the predictedmaximum inflow speed over the land was a little toohigh. The potential temperature was generallyover-predicted, but temperature gradients agreed well.Predicted turbulence levels in the bottom-half of thethermal internal boundary layer compared well to theobservations, but under-estimated the observations inthe in the upper half of this layer. Near-surfacemeasurements of meteorological variables werepredicted well over the entire diurnal cycle, althoughthe predicted sea-breeze onset was generally tooearly. A quantitative model evaluation for thenear-surface sites showed the model performance to bebetter than that from other studies, with Index ofAgreement (IOA) values of 0.8 (wind speed) and 0.96(temperature), compared with values of 0.5–0.6 (windspeed) and 0.33 (temperature) obtained from otherstudies.The availability of new higher resolution synopticanalyses should obviate the lack of spatial andtemporal resolution in synoptic inputs. Theincorporation of these higher resolution synopticinputs and new parameterisation schemes should improvefuture model performance.     

Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.     

A Lee wave cloud climatology for pincher creek,Alberta

Abstract

The annual, monthly and diurnal frequencies and durations of wave clouds are summarized from twelve years of observations at Pincher Creek, Alberta. Wave clouds occur on an average of 141 days annually. There is a distinct winter maximum anda summer minimum of occurrence. Wave clouds occur on 50% or more of the days during October and February, the most active months. Wave clouds persist for longer periods in the cooler half of the year. There appears to be a marked diurnal variation in wave cloudfrequency with maxima in the afternoon, however, this may be due to decreased visibility at sunrise and sunset.     

Inertial oscillations near the coast of Nova Scotia during CASP

Abstract

Analysis of current, temperature and salinity records in the nearshore region of the Scotian Shelf during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), reveals that the inertial wave field is highly intermittent, with comparable amplitudes in the surface and deep layers. Clockwise current energy in the surface layer is concentrated at a frequency slightly below inertial, consistent with Doppler shifting by the strong mean current and/or straining by the mean flow shear, whereas the spectral peak in deep water is at the local inertial frequency. Clockwise coherence is high (γ² ≥ 0.8) horizontally over the scale of the array (60 km × 120 km) and in the vertical, with upward phase propagation rates of 0.15–0.50 × 10^?12 ms^?1, inversely proportional to the local value of the Brunt Väisälä frequency. Clockwise current energy decreases in the onshore direction and appears to be completely inhibited on the 60‐m isobath.

A case study of the response to the CASP IOP 14 storm indicates that the inertial waves may be generated by a strong wind shift propagating onshore at a speed of 10 ms^?1. On the eastern side of the array (Liscomb line), clockwise current oscillations propagate onshore in the surface layer at a rate (8.1 ± 0.9 m s^?1) comparable with the speed of the atmospheric front, while waves in the pycnocline move offshore at a lower (internal wave) speed (1.8 m s^?1). Furthermore the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in (out) of phase with longshore current in the deep (surface) layer. However, on the western side of the array (Halifax line), the inertial waves are more complex. A sharp steepening of phase lines at the coast indicates that the phase speed of clockwise current oscillations is considerably reduced and the evidence for offshore propagation of internal waves is less clear. The discrepancies between observations on the two lines suggest that the internal wave field is three‐dimensional.

Results of simple mixed‐layer models indicate that the inertial response near the surface is sensitive to the accurate definition of the local wind field, but not to certain model physics, such as the form of the decay term. The observations also show some qualitative similarities with models for two‐dimensional response to a moving front (e.g. Kundu, 1986), but the actual forcing terms are more complicated, based on IOP 14 wind measurements.     

青藏高原近地面层微气象学特征

利用1998年5月-7月在改则、当雄和昌都三测站获得的近地面层气象要素变化的观测资料，分析了青藏高原近地面层风速、温度和湿度日变化特征及廓线规律，发现高原近地面层微气象学特征具有自己的特点；同时还讨论了高原近地面层白天出现的逆湿现象。     

一类广义Hamilton系统的辛格式

通过引人泊松括号，分析了无限维Hamilton的性质，并将其推广到广义Hamilton系统，且从理论和实用角度讨论了这类广义Hamilton系统的辛格式构造问题，从而为辛几何算法在一般的时间发展方程的数值求解提供新的具体途径。     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

Effect of KCl on melting in the Mg<Subscript>2</Subscript>SiO<Subscript>4</Subscript>–MgSiO<Subscript>3</Subscript>–H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O system at 5 GPa

To examine the effect of KCl-bearing fluids on the melting behavior of the Earth’s mantle, we conducted experiments in the Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–H₂O and Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–KCl–H₂O systems at 5 GPa. In the Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–H₂O system, the temperature of the fluid-saturated solidus is bracketed between 1,200–1,250°C, and both forsterite and enstatite coexist with the liquid under supersolidus conditions. In the Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–KCl–H₂O systems with molar Cl/(Cl + H₂O) ratios of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6, the temperatures of the fluid-saturated solidus are bracketed between 1,400–1,450°C, 1,550–1,600°C, and 1,600–1,650°C, respectively, and only forsterite coexists with liquid under supersolidus conditions. This increase in the temperature of the solidus demonstrates the significant effect of KCl on reducing the activity of H₂O in the fluid in the Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–H₂O system. The change in the melting residues indicates that the incongruent melting of enstatite (enstatite = forsterite + silica-rich melt) could extend to pressures above 5 GPa in KCl-bearing systems, in contrast to the behavior in the KCl-free system.