Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.     

Formation Mechanism of Mud Bank Along the Southwest Coast of India

Mud bank formation during the southwest monsoon along the southwest coast of India remains an enigma to the researchers and coastal community in spite of several earlier studies. The present study attempts to unravel the mystery through a high-frequency, season-long time-series observation at Alappuzha, located at the southern part of the west coast of India, a region of frequent occurrence of mud bank. Using 7-month-long weekly time-series observation, we identified strong winds and high waves associated with onset of the southwest monsoon and subsequent three episodic atmospheric low-pressure events (LPEs).With the help of in situ time-series data, we show that the strong winds and high waves associated with southwest monsoon pre-conditions the near shore bottom sediment to bring it into suspension. The high amplitude waves associated with the southwest monsoon, while propagating from the deep water to shallow water region, interact with the bottom initiating bottom-sediment movement and its suspension due to wave refraction and shoaling. The sporadic occurrence of the atmospheric LPEs enhances the process of suspension of bottom sediment in the near shore region leading to the formation of fluid mud. Simulations with a cohesive sediment transport model yielded realistic estimates of sediment transport, in the presence of an onshore current, a pre-requisite for transporting the fluid mud toward the coast. The prevailing onshore upwelling current during the southwest monsoon provides the favorable pre-requisite conditions for transporting the fluid mud through depression channel network towards the coast. Once sufficient quantity and thickness of fluid mud is accumulated in the near shore region, it acts as a wave damper for subsequent high monsoon waves, as indicated by the time-series wave data, leading to the formation of tranquil mud bank region. Depression channel networks extending from the shelf to the coast off Alappuzha, Kochi, Ponnani, Beypore, and Ullal were found in the bathymetric charts, thus explaining why mud banks occur only at few locations in spite of the prevalence of similar monsoon conditions.     

Geochemical correlations between effusive and explosive silicic volcanics in the Saraykent region (Yozgat), central Anatolia,Turkey

Two main volcanic events are distinguished between Saraykent and Akçakışla in the Yozgat province of central Anatolia: (1) early Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene effusive activity, that produced a sequence of intermediate to felsic ‘basal lavas’; and (2) marginally later Palaeocene explosive activity that formed a series of covering ignimbrite flows. Due to their close temporal and spatial relation, geochemical comparisons were made between the silicic members of the lavas and ignimbrites, to identify chemical groups and their relative petrogenesis. The basal lavas range from calc‐alkaline basaltic andesites to dominant rhyolites. Based on trace element correlations three main geochemical groups were identified: the Akçakışla rhyolites (present as domes); Akçakışla rhyodacites‐dacites (lava flows); and Ozan‐Saraykent rhyolites (lava flows). Large‐ion lithophile elements have been mobile in all the groups, but mainly in the Akçakışla rhyolites. Rare earth element (REE) patterns show marked similarity between the Ozan and Saraykent basal lavas. The Akçakışla dome rhyolites are more fractionated with lower La_N/Yb_N ratios (c.10), whereas the Akçakışla basal lavas have much higher La_N/Yb_N ratios (c.30). The chemical coherence and petrographic similarities between the Saraykent and Ozan lavas suggest a single suite related via fractionation. Three geochemical groups were also established for the ignimbrites: Saraykent ignimbrite; Bağlıca ignimbrite‐Toklu‐Kızıldağ crystal tuffs; and Keklikpınar ignimbrite. The ignimbrites, like the basal lavas, display a pronounced depletion in Ba on ORG‐normalized plots. Relative to the basal lavas, chondrite‐normalized patterns for the ignimbrites are different in displaying negative Eu anomalies that indicate feldspar fractionation. The lack of geochemical overlap or coherence between any of the lava and ignimbrite groups suggests that they represent distinct eruptive events and are not related in any simple volcanic development and cogenetic sense. Two geochemical features are common to all the volcanic rock groups: (1) the presence of a Nb‐Ta anomaly, which is generally accepted as a crustal signature; and (2) the relatively low Y abundances which appear characteristic for the region as a whole. These fundamental features of the local silicic volcanism largely reflect source composition and effects. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Expression of putative zinc-finger protein lcn61 gene in lymphocystis disease virus China （LCDV-cn） genome

An open reading frame (lcn61) of lymphocystis disease virus China (LCDV-cn), probably responsible for encoding putative zinc-finger proteins was amplified and inserted into pET24a (+) vector. Then it expressed in E. coli BL21 (DE3), and His-tag fusion protein of high yield was obtained. It was found that the fusion protein existed in E. coli mainly as inclusion bodies. The bioinformatics analysis indicates that LCN61 is C2H2 type zinc-finger protein containing four C2H2 zinc-finger motifs. This work provides a theory for functional research of lcn61 gene. Supported by High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2006AA100309)     

Sea-level rise impacts on longitudinal salinity for a low-gradient estuarine system

Climatic Change - Salinity response to sea-level rise is evaluated for a low-gradient, tidally active estuary, the lower St. Johns River, Florida. A high-resolution numerical model is forced by...     

Chemical signature of intermediate water masses along western Portuguese margin

Although the circulation of intermediate water masses in the eastern North Atlantic remains poorly defined, the presence of fresher intermediate waters, the Sub-Artic (SAIW) and the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), as well the saline intermediate Mediterranean Water (MW), has been tracked using biogeochemical properties. Here we assess the hydrographic and chemical structures of intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin by examining the vertical distributions and property-property plots of chemical tracers (oxygen and nutrients). AAIW was traced by low oxygen and high nutrients, while SAIW was recognized by low nutrients. The Mediterranean Water (MW) undercurrent is shown to spread towards the eastern flank of Gorringe bank. Concurrently, the fresher waters gained salt by direct incorporation of MW, while this water was enriched in nutrients on its way northward and westward owing, to a great extent, to the entrainment of an AAIW branch. The distributions of nutrients and apparent oxygen utilization are discussed in terms of regional ocean circulation. Our analysis suggests a circulation pattern of the various intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin: MW extends all over the area, but its presence is more pronounced around cape St. Vincent; SAIW apparently moves southward, reaching the Gorringe bank region, and AAIW flows northward along the coast and around the bank.     

Experimental determination of carbon isotope fractionation between CaCO3 and graphite

Carbon isotopic exchange between graphite and three polymorphs of CaCO₃ was investigated at temperatures of 600-1400 °C and at pressures from 1.4 to 2.3 GPa. Fractionation factors at all temperatures were determined by the partial exchange treatment of Northrop and Clayton (1966).Graphite starting material for the majority of the experiments was milled in water for 20-25 h, producing aggregates of nanosheets. The sheets range in width from 50 to 1000 nm and in thickness from 20 to 30 nm, and they retain hexagonal symmetry.Isotopic exchange appears to be the sum of surface exchange and interior exchange. At 1100-1400 °C, interior exchange exceeded surface exchange, probably by a combination of grain growth, as determined by increase in crystallite size, recrystallization, as observed in FESEM images, and diffusion. In some runs at 1200 and 1400 °C with an isotopic contrast between the initial graphite and calcite of close to 50‰, equilibrium fractionation was actually overstepped due to a kinetic effect. A weighted regression of fractionation factors from the high-temperature runs yields the line of equilibrium interior exchange:

     

Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.