Evaluation of site effects in some localities of ‘Alta Val Tiberina Umbra’ (Italy) by numerical analysis

In the paper the application of a methodology for the evaluation of site effects in an area of Umbria Region (Italy) is shown. In the project 20 localities were analyzed. In this paper the results of some representative localities are presented. The objective of the project was to develop a methodology that may be easily repeated, in order to take into account site effects in urban planning. Therefore a series of geologic, geomorphologic (1:5.000 scale) and geotechnical analyses have been carried out, to identify the areas affected by site effects and to characterize the lithotechnical units. The expected seismic inputs have been calculated and the numerical analyses 1D and 2D have been done. The results, in terms of elastic pseudo-acceleration spectra and amplification coefficients, as a ratio between spectral intensity of output and input, give elements for urban planning, both for urban general choice and for buildings design.     

Slope vulnerability to earthquakes at subregional scale, using probabilistic techniques and geographic information systems

The susceptibility of slopes to failure during earthquakes is calculated, in terms of critical horizontal acceleration, on a subregional scale for the upper part of the Serchio River basin (Tuscany, Italy). According to the working scale (1:10 000) and to the availability and accuracy of the input data, the infinite slope analysis was judged to be the most appropriate method, but particular attention was devoted to the error evaluation due to spatial variability of the geotechnic, geometric, and hydrologic parameters. A geologic, geomorphologic and hydrologic survey of the area was therefore performed, and the geotechnic parameters were collected at local administrations. All the data were stored in a GIS, used as a tool to build the spatial and attribute data base and to prepare the input data layers for the stability analysis. In order to assess the variability of geotechnic parameters, a statistical analysis was performed to assign the best-fitting probability distribution to cohesion, angle of internal friction and unit weight of the soil. As hydrogeologic data were not available for the area, only surface hydrology information could be used; a map of probability of spring occurrences was derived by a bayesian method, the Weight of Evidence Modelling, and was used as groundwater indicator. A Monte Carlo procedure and a first-order second-moment method were applied and compared as error estimators in assessing the slope susceptibility to failure. The differences between the two methods are discussed, and two maps showing, respectively, the critical horizontal acceleration and the probability of failure associated with each slope are presented, together with the curve plotting the reliability index against the probability of failure.