包头市昆都仑水库增雨燃烧炉首次作业的效果分析

通过2009年5月27日包头市昆都仑水库地面增雨燃烧炉作业实况和多普勒天气雷达速度、713天气雷达回波及区域地面自动雨量站资料的对比分析,发现在深厚的层状云系中,适时进行地面燃烧炉增雨作业,可增强区域降水量,提高增雨作业能力。分析结果为指导包头地区地面燃烧炉布点和增雨作业提供了科学依据。     

基于灰色关联度模型的区域滑坡敏感性评价

数理统计和机器学习模型如支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)等,在区域滑坡敏感性评价中得到广泛的应用.但这些模型的建模过程往往较复杂,如在对机器学习进行训练和测试时难以选取合理的非滑坡栅格单元,而且有较多的模型参数需要确定.为提高滑坡敏感性评价建模的效率和精度,提出基于灰色关联度的敏感性评价模型.灰色关联度模型能有效计算各比较样本与参考样本之间的定量的关联度,具有建模过程简洁和评价精度高的优点,该模型目前在区域滑坡敏感性评价中的应用还没有引起研究人员的足够关注且有待进一步拓展.拟将灰色关联度模型用于浙江省飞云江流域南田—雅梅图幅(南田地区)的滑坡敏感性评价,并将得到的评价结果与SVM模型的敏感性评价结果作对比分析.结果显示,灰色关联度模型在高和极高敏感区的滑坡预测精度优于SVM模型,而在中等敏感区的滑坡预测精度略低于SVM模型;整体而言,灰色关联度模型对整个南田地区滑坡敏感性分布的预测精度略高于SVM模型.对两个模型建模过程的对比结果显示,灰色关联度模型建模较简单,具有比SVM模型更高的建模效率,为滑坡敏感性评价提供了一种新思路.     

Remote estimation of surficial seafloor properties through the application Angular Range Analysis to multibeam sonar data

The variation of the backscatter strength with the angle of incidence is an intrinsic property of the seafloor, which can be used in methods for acoustic seafloor characterization. Although multibeam sonars acquire backscatter over a wide range of incidence angles, the angular information is normally neglected during standard backscatter processing and mosaicking. An approach called Angular Range Analysis has been developed to preserve the backscatter angular information, and use it for remote estimation of seafloor properties. Angular Range Analysis starts with the beam-by-beam time-series of acoustic backscatter provided by the multibeam sonar and then corrects the backscatter for seafloor slope, beam pattern, time varying and angle varying gains, and area of insonification. Subsequently a series of parameters are calculated from the stacking of consecutive time series over a spatial scale that approximates half of the swath width. Based on these calculated parameters and the inversion of an acoustic backscatter model, we estimate the acoustic impedance and the roughness of the insonified area on the seafloor. In the process of this inversion, the behavior of the model parameters is constrained by established inter-property relationships. The approach has been tested using a 300 kHz Simrad EM3000 multibeam sonar in Little Bay, NH. Impedance estimates are compared to in situ measurements of sound speed. The comparison shows a very good correlation, indicating the potential of this approach for robust seafloor characterization.     

Hawking radiation of Kerr-de Sitter black holes using Hamilton-Jacobi method

Hawking radiation of Kerr-de Sitter black hole is investigated using Hamilton-Jacobi method. When the well-behaved Painleve coordinate system and Eddington coordinate are used, we get the correct result of Bekenstein-Hawking entropy before and after radiation but a direct computation will lead to a wrong result via Hamilton-Jacobi method. Our results show that the tunneling probability is related to the change of Bekenstein-Hawking entropy and the derived emission spectrum deviates from the pure thermal but it is consistent with underlying unitary theory.     

Source parameters for the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> = 6.6, 03 February 2002, Çay Earthquake (Turkey) and aftershocks from GPS,Southwestern Turkey

The 03 February 2002 Çay Earthquake (M_w ～6.7) occurred on the fault segment between Eber and Ak?ehir Lakes followed by a large aftershock (M_w ～5.6) near the western end of the fault and two sequential aftershocks. We computed the coseismic surface displacements from static GPS measurements to determine the fault geometry parameters and uniform slip components. The coseismic displacements were obtained through combining the regional pre-earthquake and post-earthquake GPS data. Fault geometry and slips were acquired through the inversion of GPS data modeling the events as elastic dislocations in a half-space and assuming all four events took place on the same fault plane. Results suggest that one-segment fault of ～33 km length and dipping ～43° northward suffices to model the dislocation, assuming uniform slip distribution with 0.51 m dip slip, 0.26 m left-lateral slip extending to a depth down to ～11.5 km which is consistent with seismological evidence. The results also verify the normal faulting in the eastern flank of Isparta Angle which has long been assumed as a thrusting structure. While the available data cannot identify the four individual events on the same day, an attempted distributed slip model differentiates dip slip and left-lateral slips near the hypocenter with maximum values of ～1 and 0.6 m, respectively.     

威海市杨家滩水源地地下水资源评价

本文分析了威海市杨家滩不源地第四系冲洪积－海相沉积物分规律和水文地质特征；在此基础上，应用有限单元方法进行了地下水量评价和预测水源地地下水位的变化趋势；提出了最优开采方案。     

Soil moisture potential and water content in the unsaturated zone within the arid Ejina Oasis in Northwest China

Three soil profiles were selected in the Ejina Oasis, northwest China, to determine water content profiles and evolution of soil moisture potentials in the unsaturated zone within the arid area. The total soil moisture potentials have been monitored for about 3 months in 2001 at different depths in the soil profiles. The occurrence and movement of water in the unsaturated zone was analyzed using the zero flux plane (ZFP) method. It is shown that convergent ZFPs and divergent ZFPs may occur at depths between 0.5 and 3.0 m, and that the depth of the ZFPs was controlled by the root zone of plants growing on the land surface. Profiles of the total soil moisture potentials were observed to be coincident with those of the water contents at the three experimental sites. The total soil moisture potential showed a slight increasing trend and the ZFPs tend to vanish from summer to winter as the water extraction by roots decreased. Evapotranspiration through vegetation has an important bearing on the water content and the total potential in the unsaturated zone.     

20世纪90年代初东亚夏季风的年代际转型

利用1979—2009年JRA-25和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过复矢量经验正交方法揭示了东亚地区夏季850 hPa风场变率的优势模态。结果表明:两套再分析资料所揭示的东亚夏季风在20世纪90年代初均发生了年代际转型,与我国夏季降水的年代际转型时间一致。伴随着东亚夏季风的年代际转型,我国北方大部分地区夏季降水减少,尤其是我国东北北部和长江、黄河之间105°E附近区域显著减少,而华南地区和淮河流域降水显著增加。从动力上解释我国夏季降水年代际转型特征,夏季500 hPa高度场两个时段 (1993—2009年和1979—1992年) 的差值分布显示为欧亚大陆北部准纬向遥相关波列,夏季850 hPa风场差值分布表现为贝加尔湖东南侧和日本以南地区存在两个异常反气旋式环流,而我国南方地区和鄂霍次克海附近均为异常气旋式环流。夏季西北太平洋、北印度洋以及部分中高纬度海洋的海温和春季欧亚大陆积雪在20世纪90年代初出现显著变化,春季北极海冰的年代际转型发生在20世纪90年代初,都可能成为东亚夏季风年代际转型的原因。     

CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.     

青藏铁路唐古拉山-拉萨段全新世控震断裂研究

地表调查表明,沿青藏铁路唐古拉山-拉萨段存在5条重要的全新世控震断裂带,从北到南分别是温泉盆地西缘断裂带、安多盆地北缘断裂带、崩错断裂带、谷露西缘断裂带和当雄-羊八井断裂带.构造-地貌和年代学分析结果表明,北部的温泉盆地西缘断裂和安多盆地北缘断裂带的活动强度相对比较小,平均垂直活动速率约为0.2～0.5mm/a.南侧的谷露西缘断裂带和当雄-羊八井断裂带的全新世垂直活动速率为约(15±0.5)mm/a.而中部的崩错走滑断裂带的活动强度最大,晚第四纪期间的走滑速率可达(11±4.5)mm/a.全新世断裂活动和古地震研究表明,其中温泉盆地西缘断裂带、安多盆地北缘断裂带、崩错断裂带的西北分支、当雄-羊八井断裂带的当雄段等区域未来发生强震的概率相对更大.