EMD方法在广西夏季降水量预测中的应用

对广西夏季降水量进行EMD分解后,利用均生函数相关法,比较不同IMF分量组合建模的预测,不同组合试验预测显示,用前二个IMF分量组合建模预测是最佳的组合方案。经对2001—2010年共10年广西夏季降水量实际预测检验表明,趋势预测准确率达70%以上,对夏季降水量预测较有参考价值。为基层台站的气候预测及服务提供一个客观预测方法。     

Numerical modeling of PP- and PS-wave azimuthal anisotropy in HTI media

This study focuses on the factors that may affect the feasibility of performing elliptical anisotropy analysis on azimuthal PP- and PS-wave data in HTI media, with the aim of using the modeling results as guidance in real seismic data application. Our results reveal that there is an offset limitation for both PP- and PS-waves in elliptical anisotropy fitting, and that PS-waves show a wider applicable offset range and larger observable azimuthal anisotropy than PP-waves. The major axis of the elliptical fit to the amplitudes of the R-component is perpendicular to the fracture strike, which is opposite to that in PP-wave analysis. The azimuthal interval travel time of PS-waves shows a nearly elliptical distribution and the major axis of the fit ellipse is perpendicular to the fracture strike, which is same as that in PP-wave analysis. For data within the applicable offset range, the anisotropic magnitude obtained from amplitude and travel time attributes of PP- and PS-waves exhibits a dependence on fracture density, and the major to minor axis ratio of the fit ellipse may be used to infer the relative distribution of fracture densities.     

Automatic detection of oceanic eddies in reanalyzed SST images and its application in the East China Sea

Oceanic eddies may cause local sea surface temperature(SST), height, and salinity anomalies in remote sensing(RS) images. Remote sensed SST imagery has proven to be an effective technique in oceanic eddy detection, because of its high temporal and spatial resolution. Various techniques have been used to identify eddies from SST images. However, mainly owing to the strong morphological variation of oceanic eddies, there is arguably no uniquely correct eddy detection method. A scheme of algorithm based on quasi-contour tracing and clustering of eddy detection from SST dataset is presented. The method does not impose fixed restrictions or limitations during the course of "suspected" eddy detection, and any eddy-like structures can be detected as "suspected" eddies. Then, "true" eddies can be identified based on the combination of intensity and spatial/temporal scale criteria. This approach has been applied to detect eddies in the East China Sea by using Operational SST Sea Ice Analysis(OSTIA) dataset. Experiments proved that oceanic eddies ranging in diameter from tens to hundreds of kilometers can be detected. Through investigation of the 2007–2011 OSTIA daily SST dataset from the Kuroshio region in the East China Sea, we found that the most active regions for oceanic eddies are those along the Kuroshio path, northeast of Taiwan Island, the Yangtze Estuary and the Ryukyu Islands. About 86% of the cyclonic eddies and 87% of the anticyclonic eddies have the size of 50–100 km in diameter. Only 25% of the anticyclonic eddy and 26% of the cyclonic eddy have the strength more than 0.4°C in the sea surface layer.     

An isotope study of the accumulation mechanisms of high-sulfur gas from the Sichuan Basin,southwestern China

The mechanism of hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) generation plays a key role in the exploration and development of marine high-sulfur natural gas, of which the major targets are the composition and isotope characteristics of sulfur-containing compounds. Hydrocarbon source rocks, reservoir rocks, natural gases and water-soluble gases from Sichuan Basin have been analyzed with an online method for the content of H₂S and isotopic composition of different sulfur-containing compounds. The results of comparative analysis show that the sulfur-containing compounds in the source rocks are mainly formed by bacterial sulfate reduction (BSR), and the sulfur compounds in natural gas, water and reservoir are mainly formed by thermal sulfate reduction (TSR). Moreover, it has been shown that the isotopically reversion for methane and ethane in high sulfur content gas is caused by TSR. The sulfur isotopic composition of H₂S in natural gas is inherited from the gypsum or brine of the same or adjacent layer, indicating that the generation and accumulation of H₂S have the characteristics of either a self-generated source or a near-source.     

两种干旱指标在乌海地区干旱分析中的应用比较研究

本文对降水量距平百分率、M 指数两种干旱指标进行了分析、比较,发现降水量距平百分率是适合乌海地区的干旱指标,并以此为乌海地区的干旱指标,根据乌海实际干旱情况,将干旱等级标准按不同时间尺度进行了调整,根据调整后的等级标准,对乌海地区的干旱情况进行了分析.     

十堰市气候干旱分析及预报指标

利用十堰市7个代表站1953-2006年的降水资料和气温资料,用降水距平百分率（R指标）这一传统的干旱等级划分方法,并考虑到气温引入了P指标对干旱等级进行了划分,揭示了该区域干旱发生的基本特征。结果表明：十堰是我国中部地区干旱频发地区之一,干旱存在自身的周期性和连续发生的规律,地理分布是北部重于南部。造成十堰干旱的主要天气系统是东亚大槽、副热带高压和青藏高压（大陆高压）。这3个系统交替影响并控制该市：春季主要是东亚大槽稳定;夏季副热带高压控制为主、大陆高压控制次之;秋季大陆高压控制为主、副热带高压控制次之。根据不同季节和不同类型的干旱,给出了具体的预报指标。     

荞麦作物观测技术简介

文章介绍了荞麦作物的生长特性、环境要求及荞麦发育期、发育期标准、生长状况测定、产量结构分析、大田生长状况调查等观测内容和技术要求,可供测站在荞麦发育期观测和服务时参考。     

安徽自动站运行效能统计特征分析与诊断

从自动气象站业务运行特点出发,以ASOM监控安徽省81套国家级自动气象站运行为基础,统计评估了2010年自动站业务运行到报率、可用性的效能情况.根据基准站、基本站和一般站逐月运行效能统计特征,分析了未到报、报文格式错误和数据错误3者对可用性的影响,针对报文格式错误的个案特征,重点研究了出现报文格式错误与人机交互发报操作时间的定量关系,得到了定量化的发报阈值时间小于等于45 s.为提高自动气象站运行能力和业务质量,提出了解决报文字节格式错误的可行措施.     

一个大气扩散的梯度-传输理论模式及其应用

本文在u=u(z),k_y=k_y(x,z),k_z=k_z(x,z)及考虑下垫面对浓度场有清除作用的前提下,求解了定常连续点源三维湍流扩散方程,得到浓度场的分析解。解中含有随稳定度而变的参数。应用Project Prairie Grass的地面源试验资料,经验地定出了从中等不稳定到中等稳定时适用于小尺度扩散的有关参数。将本模式用来计算上述试验中的浓度,除较少的例外情况外,个例的计算浓度与实验浓度的相对误差平均在200％以内,并对误差原因进行了讨论。最后对下垫面影响的不同大小计算了清除作用对地面源浓度场的影响。     

探讨烟花爆竹厂的雷电防护措施

对烟花爆竹厂房的雷电防护措施进行分析,提出符合防雷技术规范要求的烟花爆竹厂房的雷电防护设计方案。