New interpretation on the provenance changes of the upper Pinghu–lower Huagang Formation within Xihu Depression,East China Sea Shelf Basin

Both Pinghu and Huagang formations are important hydrocarbon reservoirs of the Xihu Depression in the East China Sea Shelf Basin. Clarifying the source suppliers and restoring source-to-sink transport routes are of great significance to the future petroleum and gas undertakings. Previous researchers were largely confined by either limitation of geological records, highly dependence on a singular method or low-precision dating techniques. Our study integrated heavy mineral assemblages, geochemica...     

Early Cenozoic paleontological assemblages and provenance evolution of the Lishui Sag,East China Sea

The East China Sea Shelf Basin generated a series of back-arc basins with thick successions of marine- and terrestrial-facies sediments during Cenozoic. It is enriched with abundant oil and gas resources and is of great significance to the petroleum exploration undertakings. Therein, the Lishui Sag formed fan delta, fluvial delta and littoral-to-neritic facies sediments during Paleocene–Eocene, and the research on its sedimentary environment and sediment source was controversial. This study analyzed the paleontological combination characteristics, and conducted a source-to-sink comparative analysis to restore the sedimentary environment and provenance evolution of the Lishui Sag during Paleocene–Eocene based on the integration of detrital zircon U-Pb age spectra patterns with paleontological assemblages. The results indicated that Lishui Sag was dominated by littoral and neritic-facies environment during time corroborated by large abundance of foraminifera, calcareous nannofossils and dinoflagellates. Chronological analysis of detrital zircon U-Pb revealed that there were significant differences in sediment sources between the east and west area of the Lishui Sag. The western area was featured by deeper water depths in the Paleocene–Eocene, and the sediment was characterized by a single Yanshanian peak of zircon U-Pb age spectra, and mainly influenced from Yanshanian magmatic rocks of South China Coast and the surrounding paleo-uplifts. However, its eastern area partly showed Indosinian populations. In particular, the upper Eocene Wenzhou sediments were featured by increasingly plentiful Precambrian zircons in addition to the large Indosinian-Yanshanian peaks, indicating a possible impact from the Yushan Low Uplift to the east. Therefore, it is likely that the eastern Lishui Sag generated large river systems as well as deltas during time. Due to the Yuquan Movement, the Lishui Sag experienced uplifting and exhumation in the late stage of the late Eocene and was not deposited with sediments until Miocene. Featured by transitional-facies depositions of Paleocene–Eocene, the Lishui Sag thus beared significant potential for source rock and oil-gas reservoir accumulation.     

Late Eocene–early Miocene provenance evolution of the Crocker Fan in the southern South China Sea

There are many large-scale Cenozoic sedimentary basins with plentiful river deltas, deep-water fans and carbonate platforms in the southern South China Sea. The Crocker Fan was deposited as a typical submarine fan during the late Eocene–early Miocene, and stretches extensively across the entire Sarawak–Sabah of the northern Borneo area. However, systematic analyses are still lacking regarding its sediment composition and potential source suppliers. No consensus has been reached yet on the provenance evolution and sedimentary infilling processes, which seriously impeded the oil-and-gas exploration undertakings. By combining with sedimentary-facies identification, heavy mineral assemblages, elemental geochemistry and detrital zircon U-Pb dating, this paper aims to generalize an integrated analysis on the potential provenance terranes and restore source-to-sink pathways of the Crocker Fan. In general, the Crocker Fan was initially formed over the Cretaceous–lower/middle Eocene Rajang Group by an angular Rajang unconformity. The continual southward subduction of the proto-South China Sea resulted in magmatic activities and subsequent regional deformation and thrusting along the Lupar Line in the northern Borneo. The lowermost Crocker sequence is featured by a thick conglomerate layer sourced from in-situ or adjacent paleo-uplifts. From the late Eocene to the early Miocene, the Crocker Fan was constantly delivered with voluminous detritus from the Malay Peninsula of the western Sundaland. The Zengmu Basin was widely deposited with delta plain and neritic facies sediments, while the Brunei-Sabah Basin, to the farther east, was ubiquitously characterized by turbiditic sequences. The Crocker Fan successions are overall thick layers of modest-grained sandstones, which formed high-quality reservoirs in the southern South China Sea region.     

黄河流域气候与农业种植面积变化对径流的影响

根据黄河流域1960—2005年5个水文站逐日流量、77个气象站1959—2013年逐日降水数据,结合流域内主要农作物种植面积及大型水库资料,全面探讨气候与农业面积变化及人类活动对黄河流域径流变化的影响.研究表明:黄河流域所有流量分位数总体呈下降趋势,并于1980s中后期到1990s中期发生突变.降水变化是黄河流域径流变化的主要影响因素.在考虑不同流量分位数情况下,农作物种植面积变化对不同分位数径流变化的影响也有差异性.花园口站农作物种植面积变化对径流量量级和可变性均有显著影响;其余4站各项气候变化与农作物种植指标参数较大,虽均未达到10%的显著性水平,但仍会对径流的量级变化产生影响.对唐乃亥站,农作物耕作面积的下降减少了灌溉用水,在0.5流量分位数时有高达60%增加径流量的间接作用.对于头道拐站,农作物耕作面积的增加使得流域总蒸发量增加,灌溉用水增加,在0.3流量分位数时有高达40%减少径流量的间接作用.该研究为气候变化与人类活动影响下黄河流域水资源优化配置提供重要理论依据.     

Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model

Models of land use change are useful tools for un-derstanding the analysis of the cause and conse-quences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use system on ecological system and supporting land use planning and policy[1,2]. Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are regarded as one of the good ways to un-derstand the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system[3―10…     

塔里木盆地塔河油田奥陶系数字岩心图像中生物扰动的定量表征*

生物扰动对塔里木盆地塔河油田奥陶系碳酸盐岩“基质储集体”储集性能的改造效应具有重要影响。以塔河油田奥陶系岩心为研究对象,利用Adobe^® Photoshop^® CS6软件提供的生物扰动数字图像分析软件包,对岩心数字图像中生物扰动区域进行了识别和定量表征。结果表明: (1)在生物扰动数字图像分析软件包提供的方法中,“相似像素选择法”和“魔棒法”是对生物扰动识别与定量表征最为有效的方法,但二者适用范围不同;(2)“相似像素选择法”适用于生物扰动程度较大,单个形体相对较小且离散度相对较高的情况:当生物扰动充填物和围岩基质边界对比度较大时,应用“选取相似”操作效果最好;而当生物扰动充填物和围岩基质边界对比度较小时,应用“色彩范围”操作识别效果最好;这2种操作都仅能执行1次;(3)“魔棒法”对于识别生物扰动区域形体大而分布连续,且充填物颜色不同的情况具有独到优势;该方法可以通过多次重复操作以及调整“容差”来提高生物扰动区域与围岩基质的识别度。该研究对从生物成因角度解释碳酸盐岩“基质储集体”的非均质性与分布规律、实现增强储集性能生物扰动属性表征、丰富海相碳酸盐岩储集层地质学理论、指导该类油气藏远景勘探和储量计算以及选择合理的开发方案等具有重要意义。     

Ecological function regionalization of cultural heritage sites in Turpan,China, based on GIS

The protection for historical and cultural heritage and their surrounding environments is much more important than any other preventive efforts made by humans, so how to protect them and achieve sustainable utilization should be a priority. Regionalization is an efficient and a sustainable tool to manage the protected areas. In this study, based on regionalization of natural protected areas theory, we used ecological sensitivity analysis to regionalize the heritage sites in Turpan, China. Factors for the analysis are topography, ecological environments, human activity, and landscape resources. Based on the analysis of environmental status and spatial variation of ecological sensitivity in Turpan, this paper aims at developing a regionalization scheme and provides a scientific basis for protection and restoration of vulnerable historical and cultural sites. Our study results showed that 75% of the heritage sites in Turpan have sensitivity which is under dangerous condition and requires better planning and protection. This study provided a reliable and scientific way to regionalize heritage sites in the study area and which also can be transferred to other locations with similar situation.     

重特大自然灾害综合评估

基于作者近年对多次重特大自然灾害综合评估的实践,就重特大自然灾害的影响范围、破坏程度、直接经济损失的综合评估予以阐述。重特大自然灾害快速评估结果是制定应急救援、转移安置方案和恢复重建规划的科学依据。综合现场调查、遥感监测、模型评估和地方上报数据于一体,是提高重特大自然灾害评估结果准确度和精度的关键。制定科学合理的重特大自然灾害评估指标体系,仍然需要在大量综合评估的实践中完善。     

灾害链灾情累积放大研究方法进展

近年来全球范围内频发的重大自然灾害事件,表明一种灾害引发一系列次生灾害的灾害链现象使得灾情通过累积放大效应而大大超过单一灾种灾情,深入研究灾害链灾情累积放大过程是有效防范巨灾风险的前提.首先,本文梳理了国内外研究中不同视角下对灾害链现象的理解,认为灾害链一般性概念中应当包含孕灾环境、致灾因子链、承灾体以及它们在时间和空间上复杂相互作用关系,只有从地理学的综合性角度出发,才能正确而完整的理解灾害链过程灾情累积放大机制.其次,按研究思路的差异,综述了当前研究灾害链灾情累积放大过程的5 类方法,包括经验地学统计方法、概率模型、复杂网络模型、灾害模拟以及多学科理论方法.从描述灾害链要素在时间和空间上复合作用的角度出发,分别讨论了它们在刻画灾害链灾情放大过程中的优势与不足.选取了影响较大、灾害引发关系典型的地震灾害链与台风灾害链,从灾种维度综述上述几种方法在实际应用中的概况及进展.最后,提出综合多种方法发展与完善灾害链灾情累积放大效应过程的动态模拟是灾害链的研究趋势,其中关键在于模拟灾害链系统各要素的时间与空间上的耦合,研究思路从“静态—描述—解释”向“动态—过程—模拟”的转变是理解灾害链、灾害系统复杂性的重要途径.     

社会—生态系统综合风险防范的凝聚力模式

在综合风险防范“凝聚力”概念的基础上,从社会—生态系统综合风险防范的“凝聚力”基本原理、凝聚力形成中的协同效能、凝聚力实现手段、凝聚力优化对提高系统抗打击能力的作用等方面系统研究了“凝聚力”的科学内涵,并初步建立了“凝聚力”的模式,以期完善现有综合风险防范理论体系。结果表明：协同宽容、协同约束、协同放大和协同分散四个基本原理阐述了社会—生态系统综合风险凝聚力在协同运作上的四种表现,同时也是凝聚力在“凝心”和“聚力”具体问题上的4 种优化目标的阐释;凝聚力模式将四个协同原理及其优化目标转化为社会认知普及化、成本分摊合理化、组合优化智能化、费用效益最大化等一系列手段,实现了社会—生态系统综合风险防范产生的共识最高化、成本最低化、福利最大化以及风险最小化;运用复杂系统建模和仿真的方法,通过设计社会—生态系统结构和功能的表达,验证了随着系统凝聚力的提高,系统抵抗局部和全局打击的能力均得以增强,而且,可通过优化社会—生态系统中节点的结构和功能,以达到提升系统凝聚力的目的;凝聚力模式补充了灾害系统中脆弱性、恢复性、适应性等概念在阐释社会—生态系统综合风险防范问题上存在的缺陷。