The potential effects of climate change on summer season dairy cattle milk production and reproduction

The potential direct effects of possible global warming on summer season dairy production and reproduction were evaluated for the United States and Europe. Algorithms used for milk production and conception rate were previously developed and validated. Three widely known global circulation models (GISS, GFDL, and UKMO) were used to represent possible scenarios of future climate. Milk production and conception rate declines were highest under the UKMO model scenario and lowest under the GISS model scenario. Predicted declines for the GCM scenarios are generally higher than either 1 year in 10 probability-based declines or declines based on the abnormally hot summer of 1980 in the United States. The greatest declines (about 10% for the GISS and GFDL scenarios, and about 20% for the UKMO scenario) in the United States are predicted to occur in the Southeast and the Southwest. Substantial declines (up to 35%) in conception rates were also predicted in many locations, particularly the eastern and southern United States. These areas correspond to areas of high dairy cattle concentration. They already have relatively large summer season milk production declines resulting from normally hot conditions. Thus, the actual impacts of increased production declines may be greater in other areas, which are not accustomed to large summer season declines and therefore may require more extensive mitigation measures.Published as Paper No. 9698 Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Research Division. The work reported here was conducted under Nebraska Agricultural Research Division Project 27–007.     

Extreme Eutrophication in Shallow Estuaries and Lagoons of California Is Driven by a Unique Combination of Local Watershed Modifications That Trump Variability Associated with Wet and Dry Seasons

Rapidly growing human populations have caused heavy modifications to the watersheds of many Mediterranean climate estuaries, subjecting them to excessive nutrient enrichment and harmful macroalgal blooms. Despite these impacts, comprehensive studies in these systems are rare and comparisons between systems are lacking. We surveyed five southern California estuaries that ranged in size from 93 to 1,000 ha and incorporated differing land usages and watershed sizes. We sampled environmental variables (sediment redox potential, organic content, total nitrogen and total phosphorus, water column nitrate, ammonium, and salinity) and macroalgal cover and biomass quarterly at three locations within each estuary over 15 months to compare spatial and wet vs. dry season patterns. Maximum mean water column nitrate concentration across all estuaries ranged from 47 to 1,700 μM, showing that all estuaries were highly enriched with nitrogen, at least at some times. Mean macroalgal biomass ranged from 0 to 1,500 g wet wt m^?2. However, neither nutrient concentrations nor algal biomass showed consistent seasonal patterns as maximum values occurred in different seasons in different estuaries. Three-dimensional principal components analysis followed by regression analyses confirmed that macroalgal abundance was not directly related to water or sediment N concentrations. Rather each of these southern California estuaries showed individual patterns in all measured variables, which were most likely induced by a suite of physical modifications unique to each system and its watershed.     

Evolution and Fragmentation of Wide-Angle Wind Driven Molecular Outflows

We present two dimensional cylindrically symmetric hydrodynamic simulations and synthetic emission maps of a stellar wind propagating into an infalling, rotating environment. The resulting outflow morphology, collimation and stability observed in these simulations have relevance to the study of young stellar objects, Herbig-Haro jets and molecular outflows. Our code follows hydrogen gas with molecular, atomic and ionic components tracking the associated time dependent molecular chemistry and ionization dynamics with radiative cooling appropriate for a dense molecular gas. We present tests of the code as well as new simulations which indicate the presence of instabilities in the wind-blown bubble’s swept-up shell.     

Storage of carbon in U.S. forests predicted from satellite data,ecosystem modeling,and inventory summaries

A plant and soil simulation model based on satellite observations of vegetation and climate data was used to estimate the potential carbon pools in standing wood biomass across all forest ecosystems of the conterminous United States up to the year 1997. These modeled estimates of vegetative carbon potential were compared to aggregated measurements of standing wood biomass from the U. S. Forest Service’s national Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data set and the Carbon Online Estimator (COLE) to understand: 1) predominant geographic variations in tree growth rate and 2) local land cover and land use history including the time since the last stand-replacing disturbance (e.g., from wildfire or harvest). Results suggest that although wood appears to be accumulating at high rates in many areas of the U.S. (Northwest and Southeast), there are still extensive areas of relatively low biomass forest in the late 1990s according to FIA records. We attribute these low biomass accumulation levels to the high frequency of disturbances, which can be observed even in high production areas such as the Southeast due to frequent forest harvests. Ecosystem models like the one presented in this study have been coupled with satellite observations of land cover and green plant density to uniquely differentiate areas with a high potential for vegetative carbon storage at relatively fine spatial resolution.     

Speciation and natural attenuation of arsenic and iron in a tidally influenced shallow aquifer

The mobility of subsurface arsenic is controlled by sorption, precipitation, and dissolution processes that are tied directly to coupled redox reactions with more abundant, but spatially and temporally variable, iron and sulfur species. Adjacent to the site of a former pesticide manufacturing facility near San Francisco Bay (California, USA), soil and groundwater arsenic concentrations are elevated in sediments near the prior source, but decrease to background levels downgradient where shallow groundwater mixes with infiltrating tidal waters at the plume periphery, which has not migrated appreciably in over two decades of monitoring. We used synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy, together with supporting characterizations and sequential chemical extractions, to directly determine the oxidation state of arsenic and iron as a function of depth in sediments from cores recovered from the unsaturated and saturated zones of a shallow aquifer (to 3.5 m below the surface). Arsenic oxidation state and local bonding in sediments, as As-sulfide, As(III)-oxide, or As(V)-oxide, were related to lithologic redox horizons and depth to groundwater. Based on arsenic and iron speciation, three subsurface zones were identified: (i) a shallow reduced zone in which sulfide phases were found in either the arsenic spectra (realgar-like or orpiment-like local structure), the iron spectra (presence of pyrite), or both, with and without As(III) or As(V) coordinated by oxygen; (ii) a middle transitional zone with mixed arsenic oxidation states (As(III)–O and As(V)–O) but no evidence for sulfide phases in either the arsenic or iron spectra; and (iii) a lower oxidized zone in the saturated freshwater aquifer in which sediments contained only oxidized As(V) and Fe(III) in labile (non-detrital) phases. The zone of transition between the presence and absence of sulfide phases corresponded to the approximate seasonal fluctuation in water level associated with shallow groundwater in the sand-dominated, lower oxic zone. Total sediment arsenic concentrations showed a minimum in the transition zone and an increase in the oxic zone, particularly in core samples nearest the former source. Equilibrium and reaction progress modeling of aqueous-sediment reactions in response to decreasing oxidation potential were used to illustrate the dynamics of arsenic uptake and release in the shallow subsurface. Arsenic attenuation was controlled by two mechanisms, precipitation as sulfide phases under sulfate-reducing conditions in the unsaturated zone, and adsorption of oxidized arsenic to iron hydroxide phases under oxidizing conditions in saturated groundwaters. This study demonstrates that both realgar-type and orpiment-type phases can form in sulfate-reducing sediments at ambient temperatures, with realgar predicted as the thermodynamically stable phase in the presence of pyrite and As(III) under more reduced conditions than orpiment. Field and modeling results indicate that the potential for release of arsenite to solution is maximized in the transition between sulfate-reduced and iron-oxidized conditions when concentrations of labile iron are low relative to arsenic, pH-controlled arsenic sorption is the primary attenuation mechanism, and mixed Fe(II,III)-oxide phases do not form and generate new sorption sites.     

Adaptable User Profiles for Intelligent Geospatial Queries

The geospatial information user community is becoming increasingly diverse, with numerous users accessing distributed datasets for various types of applications. Currently in GIS, unlike traditional databases, there is a lack of machine learning algorithms to customize information retrieval results. Thus the particular interests of individual users are not taken into account in traditional geospatial queries. In this paper we present a system that adjusts query results based on user requirements and needs. It does so by using a collection of fuzzy functions that express user preference specifically in GIS environments. The focus of this work is on preference learning for one‐dimensional, quantitative attributes, and on the customization of geospatial queries using this information. The model used to express user preferences adjusts gradually to the underlying complexity during a training process, starting with fairly simple linear functions and progressing to complex non‐linear ones as needed. Our advanced modeling capabilities are demonstrated through an applicability example, and statistical simulations show the robustness of our system.     

Seasonal variations in body size and fecundity in a copepod of turbid estuaries

Variations in body length, egg number and egg diameter of the calanoid copepodEurytemora herdmani Thompson & Scott in the turbid Cornwallis Estuary were followed over a year. Maximum prosome lengths (<1.0 mm) occurred in the spring as a result of development at low temperatures, and during the year prosome length was negatively correlated with water temperature of the preceding month. Clutch size was highly variable all year, with maximum values (>100 eggs/female) in May and early June. Dry weight of eggs also varied considerably over a short period of time. Summer eggs were 27% smaller than winter eggs, and it is suggested that clutch and egg size variability may be responses to food shortages. SEM observations show thatE. herdmani eggs have a frill-like coat of unknown function. It may aid in respiration by increasing surface area, or possibly protect the egg from invertebrate predation. Eggs and their membranes appear to resist digestion by the Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia), which feed extensively onEurytemora.