Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO₂ and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.     

Non-gravitational force modeling of Comet 81P/Wild 2: I. A nucleus bulk density estimate

The nucleus of Comet 81P/Wild 2 is modeled by assuming various smooth triaxial ellipsoidal or irregular body shapes, having different rotational periods, spin axis orientations, and thermophysical properties. For these model nuclei, a large number of surface activity patterns (e.g., maps of active and inactive areas) are studied, and in each case the resulting water production rate and non-gravitational force vector versus time are calculated. By requiring that the model nuclei simultaneously reproduce certain properties of the empirical water production curve and non-gravitational changes of the orbit (focusing on changes of the orbital period and in the longitude of perihelion), constraints are placed on several properties of the nucleus. The simulations suggest that the mass of Comet 81P/Wild 2 is , resulting in a rather low bulk density, (depending on the assumed nucleus volume), and that the nucleus rotation is prograde rather than retrograde. The active area fraction is difficult to constrain, but at most 60% of the nucleus is likely to have near-surface ice.     

Poor housing and stroke mortality in population over 64 years old at the parish level,in mainland Portugal

Housing conditions can impact physical and mental health. In 2013, Portugal was still the fourth European Union country with the highest percentage of population without an adequately heated home in winter. Other adverse conditions are, for instance, overcrowding and living in older buildings. Some studies stress the relationship between stroke and poor living conditions in the elderly population, especially cold homes. Univariate and multivariate spatial cluster analysis were used to explore the relationship between excess stroke death risk, from 1998 to 2004, measured by the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for several cohorts (including persons over 64 years old), and poor housing variables from the 2001 census, at the parish level in continental Portugal. A multivariate cluster of parishes, with population without any form of heating their homes as dominant condition, was detected in northwest Portugal. Mean and median SMR values across all cohorts were consistently higher within this cluster. This strengthens the hypothesis that cold homes deserve more attention in stroke prevention and mitigation amongst elderly persons, especially in northwestern continental Portugal.     

Towards a better understanding of the evolution of the flood risk in Mediterranean urban areas: the case of Barcelona

Dam failure constitutes a grave threat to human life. However, there is still a lack of systematic and comprehensive research on the loss of life (L) caused by dam break in China. From the perspective of protecting human life, a new calculation method for L occurred in dam break floods is put forward. Fourteen dam failure cases in China are selected as the basic data by three-dimensional stratified sampling, balancing spatial, vertical elevation and temporal representations, as well as considering various conditions of the dam collapse. The method includes three progressive steps: Firstly, some impact factors of loss of life (IFL) are selected by literature survey, i.e., severity of dam break flood (S _F), population at risk (P _R), understanding of dam break (U _B), warning time (T _W) and evacuation condition (E _C). And the other IFL of weather during dam break (W _B), dam break mode (M _B), water storage (S _W), building vulnerability (V _B), dam break time (T _B) and average distance from affected area to dam (D _D) are also taken into account to get a more comprehensive consideration. According to disaster system and disaster risk, these eleven IFL are divided into four categories. Through the improved entropy method, eight key IFL are further selected out of the eleven. Secondly, four L modules are built based on four categories, which are L-causing factor module (M ₁), L-prone environment module (M ₂), affected body module (M ₃) and rescue condition module (M ₄). Eventually, by using two methods of multivariate nonlinear regression and leave-one-out cross-validation in combination with coupled four modules, the calculation method for L is established. Compared with the results of Graham method and D&M method, the result of the proposed one is much closer to the actual value and performs better in fitting effect and regional applicability. In the application, L calculation and consequence assessment are carried out in the example of Hengjiang reservoir that has already broken down. At the same time, L calculation and risk prediction are used in the analysis of Yunshan reservoir, which is under planning. The proposed method can not only be applied to estimate L and its rate (f _L ) under various types of dam break conditions in China, but also provide a reliable consequence assessment and prediction approach to reduce the risk of L.     

Comparison of Fused Glass Beads and Pressed Powder Pellets for the Quantitative Measurement of Al,Fe, Si and Ti in Bauxite by Laser‐Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

Due to matrix interference and sample particle size effects, some of the most important and difficult issues in laser‐induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) analysis are the calibration and quantitative measurement of a complex matrix. This study proposes the use of borate fusion as an alternative sample preparation procedure for the quantitative measurement of Al, Fe, Si and Ti in bauxite by LIBS. Analytical calibration curves were made using bauxite certified reference materials (CRM), and the precision and accuracy of the methods were evaluated by analysing an additional bauxite CRM, using two different approaches: pressed powder pellets and fused glass beads. The borate fusion method was the most suitable sample preparation technique, since particle size effects and matrix interference could be minimised, obtaining better linearity on the analytical calibration curves (r²), and more accurate and more precise results for bauxite analysis.