Predicting coffee yield based on agroclimatic data and machine learning

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate directly and indirectly influences agriculture, being the main responsible for low and high yields. Prior knowledge on yield helps coffee farmers in...     

Towards a better understanding of the evolution of the flood risk in Mediterranean urban areas: the case of Barcelona

This contribution explores the evolution of the flood risk in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (MAB; Northeast Spain) from 1981 to 2015, and how it has been affected by changes in land use, population and precipitation. To complete this study, we analysed PRESSGAMA and INUNGAMA databases to look for all the information related to the floods and flash floods that have affected the chosen region. The “Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros”, a state insurance company for extraordinary risks, provided data on economic damage. The extreme precipitation trend was analysed by the Fabra Observatory and El Prat-Airport Observatory, and daily precipitation data were provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Population data were obtained from the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (IDESCAT). Changes in land use were estimated from the land use maps for Catalonia corresponding to 1956, 1993, 2000, 2005 and 2009. Prevention measures like rainwater tanks and improvements to the drainage system were also been considered. The specific case of Barcelona is presented, a city recognised by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction as a model city for urban resilience to floods. The evolution of flood events in the MAB does not show any significant trend for this period. We argue that the evolution in floods can be explained, at least in part, by the lack of trend in extreme precipitation indices, and also by the improvements in flood prevention measures.     

Ra and Rn isotopes as natural tracers of submarine groundwater discharge in the patagonian coastal zone (Argentina): an initial assessment

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is herein recognized as a significant pathway of material transport from land to the coastal SW Atlantic Ocean and thus, it can be a relevant factor affecting the marine biogeochemical cycles in the region. This paper focuses on the initial measurements of ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁸Ra and ²²²Rn made in Patagonia’s coastal zone of Chubut and Santa Cruz provinces (42°S–48°S, Argentina). ²²⁶Ra activity ranged from 2.9 to 73.5 dpm 100 L^?1, and ²²⁸Ra activity ranged from 11.9 to 311.0 dpm 100 L^?1 in groundwater wells. The radium activities found in Patagonia’s marine coastal regions and adjacent shelf indicate significant enrichment throughout the coastal waters. Groundwater samples presented the largest ²²²Rn activity and ranged from 2.66 to 1083 dpm L^?1. Conversely, in the coastal marine environment, the ²²²Rn activity ranged from 1.03 to 6.23 dpm L^?1. The Patagonian coastal aquifer showed a larger enrichment in ²²⁸Ra than in ²²⁶Ra, which is a typical feature for sites where SGD is dominant, probably playing a significant role in the biogeochemistry of these coastal waters.     

Efficient approach in modeling the shear strength of unsaturated soil using soil water retention curve

Acta Geotechnica - Currently, there are debates on the relationship between the effective stress and shear strength of unsaturated soils. Thus, it is imperative to present an efficient method that...     

Rapid characterisation of the extremely large landslide threatening the Rules Reservoir (Southern Spain)

Landslides - When an active landslide is first identified in an artificial reservoir, a comprehensive study has to be quickly conducted to analyse the possible hazard that it may represent to such...     

Sensitivity analysis of a Penman–Monteith type equation to estimate reference evapotranspiration in southern Spain

Sensitivity analysis is crucial in assessing the impact of climatic variables on reference evapotranspiration estimations. The sensitivity of the standardized ASCE–Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration equation for daily estimations to climatic variables has not yet been studied in Spain. Andalusia is located in southern Spain where almost 1 million ha are irrigated under quite different conditions; it has a high inter‐annual variability in rainfall. In this study, sensitivity analyses for this equation were carried out for temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed data from 87 automatic weather stations, including coastal and inland locations, from 1999 to 2006. Topography and Mediterranean climate characterize the heterogeneous landscape and vegetation of this region. Simulated random and systematic errors have been added to meteorological data to obtain ET₀ deviations and sensitivity coefficients for different time periods. BIAS and SEE (standard error of estimate) have been used to evaluate the effect of both types of errors. The results showed a large degree of daily and seasonal variability, especially for temperature and relative humidity. In general, the effect on ET₀ values of introduced random errors was larger than that of systematic errors. ET₀ overestimations were produced using positive errors in temperature, solar radiation and wind speed data, while these errors in relative humidity resulted in ET₀ underestimations. The sensitivity of ET₀ to the same climatic variables showed significant differences among locations. The geographical distribution of sensitivity coefficients across this region was also studied. As an example, during spring months, ET₀ equation was more sensitive to temperature in stations located along the Guadalquivir Valley. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A conceptual framework for the integral management of marine protected areas

A general conceptual framework for the management of marine protected areas (MPAs) was developed. The driver-pressure-state-impacts-response (DPSIR) framework was used to determine the elements affecting MPAs. The developed evaluation framework helped to select an appropriate suite of indicators to support an ecosystem approach, an assessment of the MPAs functioning and policy decisions. Gaps derived from the management and policy responses in the MPAs were also outlined. It was concluded that the DPSIR framework can help to simplify the complexity of MPA management. This document is a tool for policy makers, scientists and general public on the relevance of indicators to monitor changes and MPAs management.     

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of quartzite cobbles from the Tapada do Montinho archaeological site (east‐central Portugal)

The burial age of an alluvially deposited cobble pavement at the Tapada do Montinho archaeological site (east‐central Portugal) is investigated using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. Measurements on the cobbles (quartzite clasts) were carried out on intact slices and large aliquots (～8 mm) of quartz grains (63–300 μm), both recovered from the outer 1.5‐mm surface of the cobbles. The recycling ratio, recuperation and dose‐recovery tests show that the single‐aliquot regenerative‐dose (SAR) protocol is applicable to both rock slices and quartz grains; both have similar luminescence characteristics. The variation in the natural OSL signal with depth below the cobble surface using intact slices from two different cobbles shows that both were bleached to a depth of at least ～2 mm before deposition. A model of the variation of dose with depth fitted to data from one of the cobbles gives a burial age of ～19 ka and also predicts the dose‐depth variation at the time of deposition. Ages based on rock slices suggest that one cobble surface, and the inner parts of two other cobbles experienced a resetting event at ～45 ka, consistent with the age control. However, the surfaces of the other cobbles all record light‐exposure events in the range 26 to 14 ka, suggesting that some of the cobbles were exposed to daylight perhaps more than once in this period. Given the shallow burial depth and unexpectedly young ages of the surrounding and overlying finer‐grained sediment, it is suggested that phases of light exposure following surficial erosion are probably responsible for this underestimate. Nevertheless, it is remarkable that we can identify and quantify four events (two light exposures of different durations and two sequential burial periods) in the dose record contained within a single clast, and this suggests that the luminescence dating of rock surfaces may prove, in the future, to be at least as important as sand/silt sediment dating.     

Nucleus properties of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 estimated from non-gravitational force modeling

The nucleus mass and bulk density of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 have been estimated by utilizing the non-gravitational force modeling technique. Here, the water production rates and non-gravitational perturbations of the orbit are calculated for a large number of model nuclei with different surface ice distribution patterns. By requiring that the empirical water production rate curve is reproduced, a subset of model nuclei are selected, for which masses are calculated by demanding that empirical non-gravitational changes of the orbital period and in the longitude of perihelion (per revolution) are reproduced. We obtain a mass M=5.8(±1.6)×¹⁰¹³ kg, and a bulk density , which compares very well with measurements made by the Deep Impact Science Team. The main goal of the current work is therefore to demonstrate functionality of an indirect method, i.e., mass estimation through non-gravitational force modeling, by comparing such results to ground truth data. Furthermore, the thermal inertia of active areas is estimated as 30-100 MKS, using a comparatively realistic thermophysical model (although a value in the range 100-350 MKS is obtained with a more simple model). An active area fraction of ∼3% is predicted, and these areas are probably confined to the northern hemisphere, being located close to the cometary equator.     

Dynamics of contaminants in phosphogypsum of the fertilizer industry of Huelva (SW Spain): From phosphate rock ore to the environment

The dynamics of trace elements from phosphate rock ore to the environment in a phosphoric acid plant located in SW Spain and the impact of phosphogypsum wastes were investigated through total digestion and BCR-sequential extraction. Based on total concentration, element transfer factors as criteria for examining the potential environmental risk of waste with respect to ore rock were calculated, and it was observed that most trace elements are only transferred into phosphogypsum at rates of 2–12%. However, based on those concentrations that are likely to be most readily mobile in the environment, phosphogypsum acts as a higher emission source of contaminants than the original rock. About 100 million tonnes of phosphogypsum are stack-piled in a dump of 1200 ha over salt-marshes of an estuary formed by the confluence of the Tinto and Odiel rivers. Phosphogypsum has been applied, at the recommended rate of 20–25 t/ha since 1978–2001, to improve fertility and reduce Na saturation in agricultural soils of the Guadalquivir river valley (140 km²). Phosphogypsum capacity as a source of mobile contaminants in three environmental scenarios (water leaching, exposure to oxidising and reducing conditions) was quantified by combining sequential extraction and waste mass. The amounts of mobile contaminants that could be released for every tonne of phosphogypsum are approximately 7 × 10² g Sr, 1.1 × 10² g Fe, 55 g Y, 30 g Ce, 12 g Cr, 11 g Ti, 5 g Zn, 4 g each of Cu and Pb, 3 g each of V and Cd, 2 g each of As and Ni and 1 g U. Multiplying these amounts by 100 Mt and 20–25 t/ha, it is possible to calculate risk assessments of phosphogypsum for both estuarine zones, e.g. in a hypothetical stack collapse and waste spilling, and agricultural soils, respectively.