Predicting coffee yield based on agroclimatic data and machine learning

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate directly and indirectly influences agriculture, being the main responsible for low and high yields. Prior knowledge on yield helps coffee farmers in...     

On the rotation of co-orbital bodies in eccentric orbits

We investigate the resonant rotation of co-orbital bodies in eccentric and planar orbits. We develop a simple analytical model to study the impact of the eccentricity and orbital perturbations on the spin dynamics. This model is relevant in the entire domain of horseshoe and tadpole orbit, for moderate eccentricities. We show that there are three different families of spin–orbit resonances, one depending on the eccentricity, one depending on the orbital libration frequency, and another depending on the pericenter’s dynamics. We can estimate the width and the location of the different resonant islands in the phase space, predicting which are the more likely to capture the spin of the rotating body. In some regions of the phase space the resonant islands may overlap, giving rise to chaotic rotation.     

Magmatic and post-magmatic evolution of post-collisional rare-metal bearing granite: The Neoproterozoic Homrit Akarem Granitic Intrusion,south Eastern Desert of Egypt,Arabian-Nubian Shield

The Homrit Akarem granitic intrusion (HAGI) outcrops near the western edge of the south Eastern Desert basement exposure in Egypt. It is a composite of two cogenetic intrusive bodies: an early albite granite phase shallowly emplaced at the apex of a magmatic cupola, and a later subjacent pink granite phase with a marginal zone of muscovite granite and better preservation of magmatic features. Mineral chemistry of primary biotite and garnet, together with whole-rock chemistry, identify the HAGI as a highly fractionated A-type peraluminous intrusion. The chemistry of F-dominant, Li-bearing, Fe³⁺-rich primary magmatic mica in the pink granite resembles that typically found in highly evolved Nb-Y-F pegmatites. The HAGI is the evolved product of a primary magma generated by partial melting of juvenile crust of the Arabian-Nubian Shield (ANS), emplaced along a regional strike-slip fault system that promoted its ascent. The main emplacement mechanism and evolutionary sequence of the HAGI was magmatic, although secondary minerals and textures resulting from hydrothermal fluid interactions are observed, especially at its margins. Primary columbite-(Mn) crystallized from melt and was partly replaced by secondary fluorcalciomicrolite. The high fluorine content of magmatic fluids exsolved from the intrusion is indicated by quartz-fluorite veins, greisenization, albitization, and F-bearing secondary oxide minerals. The magmatic derivation of this fluid is demonstrated by the F-dominant primary mica, a siderophyllite-polylithionite solid solution commonly known as zinnwaldite. The chemistry of zinnwaldite constrains the F/OH activity ratio and oxygen fugacity of its parental melt and thereby resolves the ambiguity between pressure and the effects of F in controlling the normative quartz content of rare-metal granites. The HAGI is less mineralized than the post-collisional rare-metal granites found further east in the south Eastern Desert, replicating a trend observed previously in the central Eastern Desert and suggesting that east-west zoning in rare metal enrichment is a persistent feature across latitudes at the western edge of the ANS.     

Sensitivity analysis of a Penman–Monteith type equation to estimate reference evapotranspiration in southern Spain

Sensitivity analysis is crucial in assessing the impact of climatic variables on reference evapotranspiration estimations. The sensitivity of the standardized ASCE–Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration equation for daily estimations to climatic variables has not yet been studied in Spain. Andalusia is located in southern Spain where almost 1 million ha are irrigated under quite different conditions; it has a high inter‐annual variability in rainfall. In this study, sensitivity analyses for this equation were carried out for temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed data from 87 automatic weather stations, including coastal and inland locations, from 1999 to 2006. Topography and Mediterranean climate characterize the heterogeneous landscape and vegetation of this region. Simulated random and systematic errors have been added to meteorological data to obtain ET₀ deviations and sensitivity coefficients for different time periods. BIAS and SEE (standard error of estimate) have been used to evaluate the effect of both types of errors. The results showed a large degree of daily and seasonal variability, especially for temperature and relative humidity. In general, the effect on ET₀ values of introduced random errors was larger than that of systematic errors. ET₀ overestimations were produced using positive errors in temperature, solar radiation and wind speed data, while these errors in relative humidity resulted in ET₀ underestimations. The sensitivity of ET₀ to the same climatic variables showed significant differences among locations. The geographical distribution of sensitivity coefficients across this region was also studied. As an example, during spring months, ET₀ equation was more sensitive to temperature in stations located along the Guadalquivir Valley. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A conceptual framework for the integral management of marine protected areas

A general conceptual framework for the management of marine protected areas (MPAs) was developed. The driver-pressure-state-impacts-response (DPSIR) framework was used to determine the elements affecting MPAs. The developed evaluation framework helped to select an appropriate suite of indicators to support an ecosystem approach, an assessment of the MPAs functioning and policy decisions. Gaps derived from the management and policy responses in the MPAs were also outlined. It was concluded that the DPSIR framework can help to simplify the complexity of MPA management. This document is a tool for policy makers, scientists and general public on the relevance of indicators to monitor changes and MPAs management.     

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of quartzite cobbles from the Tapada do Montinho archaeological site (east‐central Portugal)

The burial age of an alluvially deposited cobble pavement at the Tapada do Montinho archaeological site (east‐central Portugal) is investigated using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. Measurements on the cobbles (quartzite clasts) were carried out on intact slices and large aliquots (～8 mm) of quartz grains (63–300 μm), both recovered from the outer 1.5‐mm surface of the cobbles. The recycling ratio, recuperation and dose‐recovery tests show that the single‐aliquot regenerative‐dose (SAR) protocol is applicable to both rock slices and quartz grains; both have similar luminescence characteristics. The variation in the natural OSL signal with depth below the cobble surface using intact slices from two different cobbles shows that both were bleached to a depth of at least ～2 mm before deposition. A model of the variation of dose with depth fitted to data from one of the cobbles gives a burial age of ～19 ka and also predicts the dose‐depth variation at the time of deposition. Ages based on rock slices suggest that one cobble surface, and the inner parts of two other cobbles experienced a resetting event at ～45 ka, consistent with the age control. However, the surfaces of the other cobbles all record light‐exposure events in the range 26 to 14 ka, suggesting that some of the cobbles were exposed to daylight perhaps more than once in this period. Given the shallow burial depth and unexpectedly young ages of the surrounding and overlying finer‐grained sediment, it is suggested that phases of light exposure following surficial erosion are probably responsible for this underestimate. Nevertheless, it is remarkable that we can identify and quantify four events (two light exposures of different durations and two sequential burial periods) in the dose record contained within a single clast, and this suggests that the luminescence dating of rock surfaces may prove, in the future, to be at least as important as sand/silt sediment dating.     

A description of chloride cell and kidney tubule alterations in the flatfish Solea senegalensis exposed to moderately contaminated sediments from the Sado estuary (Portugal)

The effects of sediment-bound contaminants on kidney and gill chloride cells were surveyed in juvenile Solea senegalensis exposed to fresh sediments collected from three distinct sites of the Sado Estuary (Portugal) in a 28-day laboratorial assay. Sediments were analyzed for metallic contaminants, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorines as well as for total organic matter, redox potential and fine fraction. The potential for causing adverse biological effects of each surveyed sediment was assessed by comparison of contaminant levels to available guidelines for coastal sediments, namely the Threshold Effects Level (TEL) and the Probable Effects Level (PEL). The Sediment Quality Guideline Quotient indices (SQGQ) were calculated to compare the overall contamination levels of the three stations. A qualitative approach was employed to analyze the histo/cytopathological traits in gill chloride cells and body kidney of fish exposed to each tested sediment for 0, 14 and 28 days. The results showed that sediment contamination can be considered low to moderate and that the least contaminated sediment (from a reference site, with the lowest SQGQ) caused lesser changes in the surveyed organs. However, the most contaminated sediment (by both metallic and organic xenobiotics, with highest SQGQ) was neither responsible for the highest mortality nor for the most pronounced lesions. Exposure to the sediment presenting an intermediate SQGQ, essentially contaminated by organic compounds, caused the highest mortality (48%) and the most severe damage to kidneys, up to full renal necrosis. Chloride cell alterations were similar in fish exposed to the two most contaminated sediments and consisted of a pronounced cellular hypertrophy, likely involving fluid retention and loss of mitochondria. It can be concluded that sediment contamination considered to be low or moderate may be responsible for severe injury to cells and parenchyma involved in the maintenance of osmotic balance, contributing for the high mortality levels observed. The results suggest that sediment-bound organic contaminants such as PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) and PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls) may be very toxic to the analyzed organs, especially the kidney, even when present in low-risk concentrations.     

Sandy beach macrofaunal communities on the western coast of Portugal – Is there a steady structure under similar exposed conditions?

The structure of macrofaunal communities at two similar exposed sandy beaches on the western coast of Portugal was monitored for approximately 18 months by sampling all the beach area, from the shoreline to the base of the dunes. The beaches’ physical environment, as well as community density and composition, seasonal variations and the potential relationships between biological data and environmental parameters were studied. The two beaches had similar exposure to wave action, but differed in terms of sediment grain size, extent of the intertidal area, sediment moisture content and, especially, in the potential food availability in the form of allochthonous debris. Differences were observed with regard to the communities’ structure, namely regarding composition and relative contribution of the dominant species. Seasonality, especially temperature variations, and the interaction between seasons and the beach zones (supralittoral vs. intertidal) also had a strong influence on communities: controlling dominant species’ density and the horizontal distribution of the dominant species, and promoting a differential utilization of the beach by several resident macrofaunal animals. The present study allows the identification of key species in exposed sandy beaches of western Portugal and demonstrates that a steady community structure does not persist in the similarly exposed conditions observed, which may be mainly a response to distinct detritus subsidies, combined with differences in sediment grain size, sediment moisture content and extent of the intertidal area.     

Long-term changes in fish communities of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (southern Portugal) based on two studies made 20 years apart

Fish communities of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (south Portugal) were sampled on a monthly basis with a beach seine at 4 sites, during two different time periods: 1980–1986 and 2001–2002. Community indices, species ranking and multivariate analysis were used in order to identify changes in the fish community between the two time periods. A total of 153,511 fish representing 57 taxa were recorded. Although species composition was very similar for both sampling periods, multivariate analysis performed on annual species abundance in number and weight revealed differences in fish community structure between the two periods. Structural changes in fish community were related mostly to a sharp decrease in the abundance of Mugilidae from 1980–1986 to 2001–2002. These changes were probably associated to a decrease in organic matter contents and nutrients concentrations due to improvements in sewage treatment and better water circulation inside the lagoon. The changes in fish community structure are more evident in the inner areas of the lagoon than near the inlet. The association between changes in sewage patterns and changes in the ichthyofaunal community structure reinforces the importance of fish communities as a biological indicator of human induced changes in marine systems.     

Understanding spatial and temporal dynamics of key environmental characteristics in a mesotidal Atlantic estuary (Douro,NW Portugal)

Ecosystem management and decision making process are dependent of a good knowledge of ecosystem functioning. Conceptual models allow knowledge organization through representation of relationships between variables and processes, facilitating management decisions. In this study, spatial and temporal characterization of key environmental variables, as well as relationships between them, was studied aiming the design of a conceptual model of the Douro estuary. This temperate mesotidal estuary is limited upstream by a hydroelectric power dam that controls freshwater inflow and prevents the propagation of the tide upstream, which, in turn, influences water circulation and biogeochemical dynamics of the system. During one year, from December 2002 to December 2003, water column data were collected monthly at 10 stations along the estuary, during ebb and flood tides. Spatial and temporal variability of water column salinity, temperature, nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, total particulate matter (TPM), phytoplankton primary production (PP), faecal coliform bacteria (FC) and community respiration (CR) were analysed. Salinity stratification was assessed by means of the Estuary Number (Ne) and variation of this index as well as other key characteristics with river flow was analysed. Freshwater discharge controlled salinity stratification and freshwater residence time. Ne indicated that the Douro was stratified for river flows <300 m³ s⁻¹, and freshwater residence time was >1 day for the same conditions. A decaying exponential relationship between PP and river flow was found, whereas nitrate and TPM increased logarithmically and linearly, respectively, with river flow. Regarding spatial distribution, nitrate and PP decreased downstream, showing that the river was a source of nutrients and phytoplankton, while the opposite trend was found for TPM, FC, ammonium and CR. The latter increase was probably due to untreated sewage discharge in the urbanized middle and lower estuarine stretches. Reduction of nitrate coming from the watershed and of bacterial contamination in the urban stretches of this highly modified water body, according to the European Water Framework Directive, emerges as the main water quality issues for this estuarine ecosystem.