A Road to Conflict: Stakeholder’s and Social Network Analysis of the Media Portrayals of a Social-Environmental Conflict in Bolivia

Society’s understanding of a conflict is mediated by information provided in mass media, for which researchers stress the importance of analyzing media portrays of stakeholders in a conflict. We analyze information from the Bolivian press regarding the construction of a road crossing the Isiboro-Sécure Indigenous Territory and National Park (TIPNIS). Using stakeholder’s and social network analyses, we explore stakeholder’s positions and alliances as represented in the media and contrast it with previous scholarly work. We found that some actors cited as central in scholar analyses of the conflict are largely absent in the media (e.g., private investors, conservationist sector) and that the media tend to present stakeholders as having more homogeneous positions than the academic literature does while also neglecting some important alliances in their account. The media also suggests that Indigenous communities are forging stronger alliances with urban sectors and civil society, alliances not stressed by researchers.     

Soil and vegetation seasonal changes in the grazing Andean Mountain grasslands

Andean grasslands ecosystems are fragile environments with rigorous climatologic conditions and low and variable food for the grazing. The Apolobamba area is located in the Bolivian Andean Mountains. Its high grasslands provide a natural habitat for wild and domestic camelids such as vicuna（Vicugna vicugna） and alpaca（Lama pacos）. The botanical diversity plays an essential role in maintaining vital ecosystem functions. The objectives of this research were to determine the seasonal changes in soil properties, to study the vegetation changes during the wet and dry seasons and the influence of soil properties and camelid densities on the vegetation in the Apolobamba grasslands. Four zones with different vicuna populations were selected to be studied. The following soil parameters were determined： total organic carbon, total nitrogen, available phosphorous, cation exchange capacity, exchangeable cations, pH and texture. The vegetation season changes were studied through botanical identification, above-ground biomass, plant cover and species richness. Results showed that some soil properties such as C/N ratio, CEC, silt and clay percentages kept stable against the seasonal changes. Generally, soil nutrients were relatively higher during the dry season in the surface and subsurface. The results did not point out the predominant vegetation growth during the wet season. The seasonal vegetation growth depended on each species. Thegood soil fertility corresponded to the highest plant cover. Soil fertility presented no influence on the above-ground biomass of the collected species. The negative influence of camelid grazing on soil properties could not be assessed. However, overgrazing could affect some plant species. Therefore, protection is needed in order to preserve the biodiversity in the Andean mountain grasslands.     

Estimation of Mining Tremor Occurrence by Using Neural Networks

—Changes of the primary strain-stress state (caused by interaction between natural conditions and mining activity) can result, under special circumstances, to the origin of seismic induced events. The question of induced seismic activity prediction was treated as a problem of time series extrapolation of maximum cumulative amplitudes and numbers of seismic events recorded per day. The treatment was carried out by means of Multilayered Perceptron Neural Networks (MLP NN). The application to mining tremor prediction has been tested and methodological conditions have been obtained. It was proved that the prediction of the number of mining tremors per day is more precise than the prediction of future energy (maximum amplitudes). Further advance, based on the processing of seismo-acoustic activity series, is introduced.     

Spectrometric analyses in comparison to the physiological condition of heavy metal stressed floodplain vegetation in a standardised experiment

Floodplain ecosystems are affected by flood dynamics, nutrient supply as well as anthropogenic activities. Heavy metal pollution poses a serious environmental challenge. Pollution transfer from the soil to vegetation is still present at the central location of Elbe River, Germany. The goal of this study was to assess and separate the current heavy metal contamination of the floodplain ecosystem, using spectrometric field and laboratory measurements. A standardized pot experiment with floodplain vegetation in differently contaminated soils provided the basis for the measurements. The dominant plant types of the floodplains are: Urtica dioica, Phalaris arundinacea and Alopecurus pratensis, these were also chemically analysed. Various vegetation indices and methods were used to estimate the red edge position, to normalise the spectral curve of the vegetation and to investigate the potential of different methods for separating plant stress in floodplain vegetation. The main task was to compare spectral bands during phenological phases to find a method to detect heavy metal stress in plants. A multi-level algorithm for the curve parameterisation was developed. Chemo-analytical and ecophysiological parameters of plants were considered in the results and correlated with spectral data. The results of this study show the influence of heavy metals on the spectral characteristics of the focal plants. The developed method (depth CR1730) showed significant relationship between the plants and the contamination.     

Assessment of the hydraulic slope flow approach using a mesoscale model

The simplified hydraulic two-layer model for a katabatic flow is analysed using the outputs from a high-resolution mesoscale simulation. A stably stratified night is simulated for the Duero basin, a complex terrain area located in the northern Spanish plateau, with large vertical and horizontal spatial resolution. Well-defined katabatic flows on the basin slopes are generated by the simulation, that are relatively stationary and quasi-bidimensional for some areas in the central part of the night. The bulk quantities used in the two-layer approach as well as the different terms in the equations are computed from the three-dimensional information provided by the mesoscale simulation. This method allows to inspect how well the simplified approach represents the katabatic flow generated by the mesoscale model. The study shows that the hydraulic model allows for a comprehensive analysis of the basic mechanisms of the slope flows but is not able to close the budget equations, since the residuals are large.     

Evaluating the Ability of CRCM5 to Simulate Mixed Precipitation

Precipitation episodes in the form of freezing rain and ice pellets represent natural hazards affecting eastern Canada during the cold season. These types of precipitation mainly occur in the St. Lawrence River valley and the Atlantic provinces of Canada. This study aims to evaluate the ability of the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), using a 0.11° horizontal grid mesh, to hindcast mixed precipitation when driven by reanalyses produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) for a 35-year period. In general, the CRCM5 simulation slightly overestimates the occurrence of freezing rain, but the geographical distribution is well reproduced. The duration of freezing rain events and accompanying surface winds in the Montréal region are reproduced by CRCM5. A case study is performed for an especially catastrophic freezing-rain event in January 1998; the model succeeds in simulating the intensity and duration of the episode, as well as the propitious meteorological environment. Overall, the model is also able to reproduce the climatology and a specific event of freezing rain and ice pellets.     

Influence of the sediment delivery ratio index on the analysis of silting and break risk in the Plasencia reservoir (Central System,Spain)

The random forest method was used to generate susceptibility maps for debris flows, rock slides, and active layer detachment slides in the Donjek River area within the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, based on an inventory of landslides compiled by the Geological Survey of Canada in collaboration with the Yukon Geological Survey. The aim of this study is to develop data-driven landslide susceptibility models which can provide information on risk assessment to existing and planned infrastructure. The factors contributing to slope failure used in the models include slope angle, slope aspect, plan and profile curvatures, bedrock geology, surficial geology, proximity to faults, permafrost distribution, vegetation distribution, wetness index, and proximity to drainage system. A total of 83 debris flow deposits, 181 active layer detachment slides, and 104 rock slides were compiled in the landslide inventory. The samples representing the landslide free zones were randomly selected. The ratio of landslide/landslide free zones was set to 1:1 and 1:2 to examine the results of different sample ratios on the classification. Two-thirds of the samples for each landslide type were used in the classification, and the remaining 1/3 were used to evaluate the results. In addition to the classification maps, probability maps were also created, which served as the susceptibility maps for debris flows, rock slides, and active layer detachment slides. Success and prediction rate curves created to evaluate the performance of the resulting models indicate a high performance of the random forest in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Interplay of orbital forcing and tectonic pulses in the Cambrian Iberian platform, NE Spain

The stratigraphy of carbonate/shale couplets, cycles and cycle-stacking patterns in a Cambrian shallow water platform (Iberian Chains, NE Spain) are related to sea-level changes driven by orbital forcing and by tectonic pulses. The interplay of both effects can be discriminated in the Iberian fault-controlled platform, in which the tectonic activity can be analysed by accurate and detailed biostratigraphic correlations based on trilobite zonation. The stratigraphic hierarchy of rhythmically interbedded limestones and shales, in two coeval but structurally separated geodynamic settings, yields cycle ratios of 1.44 :1. This ratio is supported by time thickness and spectral analysis, which is based on a graphic method of analysis: the Map of Grey Lines. The cycle ratio seems to be evidence for orbital forcing by obliquity and precession cycles predicted for early Paleozoic time. Carbonate/shale couplets, the smallest rhythmic units recognisable in the field, represent short-term, periodic fluctuations in supply of terrigenous sediments and carbonate productivity of uncertain origin, which could be associated with one of several harmonics of the former orbital cycles. The pulsating tectonic activity was approximated by using a quantitative analysis of tectonically induced subsidence (Shaw method). Recurrence frequencies of tectonic pulses were estimated and dated by biostratigraphy. As a result, tectonic disturbances in the Cambrian Iberian platform show an episodic periodicity comparable to that of orbital eccentricity cycles, which could mask their recognition. Received: 15 November 1999 / Accepted: 9 February 2000