An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical...     

Fast error analysis of continuous GPS observations

It has been generally accepted that the noise in continuous GPS observations can be well described by a power-law plus white noise model. Using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) the numerical values of the noise model can be estimated. Current methods require calculating the data covariance matrix and inverting it, which is a significant computational burden. Analysing 10 years of daily GPS solutions of a single station can take around 2 h on a regular computer such as a PC with an AMD Athlon^TM 64 X2 dual core processor. When one analyses large networks with hundreds of stations or when one analyses hourly instead of daily solutions, the long computation times becomes a problem. In case the signal only contains power-law noise, the MLE computations can be simplified to a process where N is the number of observations. For the general case of power-law plus white noise, we present a modification of the MLE equations that allows us to reduce the number of computations within the algorithm from a cubic to a quadratic function of the number of observations when there are no data gaps. For time-series of three and eight years, this means in practise a reduction factor of around 35 and 84 in computation time without loss of accuracy. In addition, this modification removes the implicit assumption that there is no environment noise before the first observation. Finally, we present an analytical expression for the uncertainty of the estimated trend if the data only contains power-law noise. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Spectroscopic and bond-topological investigation of interstitial volatiles in beryl from Slovakia

Nine beryl samples from Western Carpathians, Slovakia, were investigated by infrared and Raman spectroscopy and differential thermal analysis. Two types of water H₂O I and H₂O II were detected. Infrared spectroscopy proved the presence of water type I and II in the presence of alkali cations with several bands: (1) symmetric stretching vibration—ν₁; (2) antisymmetric stretching mode—ν₃; (3) bending vibration—ν₂. The presence of singly and doubly coordinated type II water (IIs and IId) was confirmed by single-crystal IR spectroscopy. From Raman spectra a band at 3606 cm^?1 was assigned to ν₁ of water type I and the range of 3597–3600 cm^?1 to water type II. The presence of doubly coordinating water indicates a relatively highly hydrated environment with the presence of alkali ions including Na as the dominant cation coordinated by H₂O II. CO₂ bands were detected only by single-crystal IR spectroscopy. Thermal analysis proved total water loss in the range of 1.4–2.0 wt% and three main dehydration events. Based on the study of bond-topological arrangements two molecules of H₂O IId are each bound with two H···O1 bonds and one Na–O_W bond with an angular distortion, and by releasing one H₂O molecule more stable H₂O IIs is produced. The H₂O I molecule is bound only by two equivalent hydrogen bonds. The H₂O IIs molecule with a Na–O_W bond strength of 0.28 vu and two H···O1 bonds of 0.14 vu without any forced angular distortion is the most stable of all.     

Angular velocity of Arabian plate from multi-year analysis of GNSS data

We compute the secular tectonic motion of the Arabian plate, based on two different sets of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations. The first set is formed by continuous GNSS (cGNSS) observations from 10 stations that are being operated since 2000 and have a data time span of at least 3.5 years. The cGNSS is supplemented with a second set of GNSS observations from 11 episodic stations (eGNSS) acquired between 2003 and 2009 (having at least six reoccupations). In order to evaluate the robustness of the solutions, we have estimated three different solutions using different parameterizations concerning the error models as follows: (a) estimating the velocities based only on the cGNSS sites; (b) combining the cGNSS and eGNSS, where the errors for the eGNSS solutions were rescaled to be consistent with those estimated for the cGNSS solutions; and (c) giving the same weight to all cGNSS and eGNSS solutions. Our conclusions show that case (b) is the preferred solution when the uncertainties of the eGNSS solutions are multiplied by a scale factor (4.1× in this particular case), since the inclusion of the eGNSS solutions allows to have a larger number of points with a better spatial distribution. Finally, we compare our angular velocity model with other models, in particular the most recent global models: GEODVEL (geodetic) and MORVEL (geophysical). We find that GEODVEL provides inaccurate predictions for the Arabian tectonic plate, whereas the MORVEL model shows a slightly better agreement with our solution. Our proposed model shows a significant improvement to model the present-day kinematics of Arabian plate. Thus, it is suggested to be used instead of the global models. As corollary, we also advocate that global models for present-day tectonic motions should be carefully verified for each modeled plate, so that dedicated regional models can provide better results.     

南极冰钻钻井液应用性试验研究

钻井液的性质及性能参数对于南极科学钻探有着重要的影响。钻井液除了必须要具备合适的粘度和密度,以满足冷却钻头、平衡孔壁压力、携带冰屑、清洁孔底的要求外,钻井液的性质如导电性、导热性及其腐蚀性对于保证钻具的正常工作、输送孔内信息也有着重要的影响。根据目前已经在南极使用的钻井液类型,分别对6种介质（国产硅油-3cst、KF96硅油-2cst、丁酸乙酯、丁酸丁酯、丁酸戊酯、丙酸丙酯）在不同温度下的电导率、导热系数和对密封件的腐蚀性进行了试验测试,选出了适合南极应用的钻井液类型及在钻具中使用的密封件材质,可供极地钻探选择钻井液类型及钻具设计提供重要的参考。     

Data Assimilation Modeling of the Barotropic Tides in the Korea/Tsushima Strait

During 1999–2000, 13 bottom mounted acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) and 12 wave/tide gauges were deployed along two lines across the Korea/Tsushima Strait, providing long-term measurements of currents and bottom pressure. Tidally analyzed velocity and pressure data from the moorings are used in conjunction with other moored ADCPs, coastal tide gauge measurements, and altimeter measurements in a linear barotropic data assimilation model. The model fits the vertically averaged data to the linear shallow water equations in a least-squares sense by only adjusting the incoming gravity waves along the boundaries. Model predictions are made for the O₁, P₁, K₁, μ₂, N₂, M₂, S₂, and K₂ tides. An extensive analysis of the accuracy of the M₂ surface-height predictions suggests that for broad regions near the mooring lines and in the Jeju Strait the amplitude prediction errors are less than 0.5 cm. Elsewhere, the analysis suggests that errors range from 1 to 4 cm with the exception of small regions where the tides are not well determined by the dataset. The errors in the model predictions are primarily caused by bias error in the model’s physics, numerics, and/or parameterization as opposed to random errors in the observational data. In the model predictions, the highest ranges in sea level height occur for tidal constituents M₂, S₂, K₁, O₁, and N₂, with the highest magnitudes of tidal velocities occurring for M₂, K₁, S₂, and O₁. The tides exhibit a complex structure in which diurnal constituents have higher currents relative to their sea level height ranges than semi-diurnal constituents.     

Stress indications in the Bohemian Massif: Reinterpretation of borehole televiewer data

Summary This paper presents the first results of stress determinations in the Bohemian Massif utilizing televiewer data from deeper boreholes. The televiewer survey was originally carried out by Geological Survey Ostrava for the purpose of studying fractures and bedding in coal basins to depths of 2 km. A reinterpretation of the amplitude logs reveal a large number of stress-induced borehole elongations (breakouts) which occur in a direction perpendicular to the maximum horizontal principal stress (S_H). The breakout analysis in the Upper Silesian, Meno and Kladno Basins indicates a dominant NW-SE direction of S_H which is consistent with the pattern of stress orientation in Western Europe. The NE-SW trend observed in the Plze Basin is less reliable. A model for stress magnitude determinations is formulated as a linear programming problem. If the a priori information on rock strength properties is limited, it reduces to explicit formulas for stress regime estimates. The model is applied to data from the Upper Silesian Basin for which a compressional stress regime is derived.     

A design framework for creating social learning situations

Learning nurtured through experimentation is very important for enabling sustainability transitions. Over the last decade, different strands of research have investigated social learning and its associated processes to better understand learning efforts aimed at socio-technical system change. While some necessary process considerations to enable social learning have been established, actual design and organisation of experiments that aim to create a social learning situation remain largely unexplored. Against this background, this paper presents an empirical, mixed-method study that investigated a governance experiment within the Australian urban water sector. This experiment enabled widespread learning, resulting in socio-technical system change. The research reveals that social learning in particular is more complex in reality than in theory and that not all system stakeholders need to learn the same to achieve system change. Further, this paper develops a framework that outlines enabling starting conditions and features for designing and organising social learning situations. The framework comprises focus projects, multi-organisational peer groups, distributed facilitation, adaptability and flexibility, time and science/research. The key findings provide practical strategies for designing and operationalising policy and governance reform agendas that embrace learning situations.