Assessment of WRF numerical model forecasts using different lead time initializations during extreme precipitation events over Macaé city,Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

Natural Hazards - The ability to forecast extreme precipitation events has become increasingly important over the last decades due to their significant impacts on society and properties. In this...     

The Mineral Adsorption and The Application of a Metamorphic Felsic Rock as Aggregate in Asphalt Pavements

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The aggregates consist approximately 85% of the total volume in asphalts pavements, and their properties influence directly their behavior. Therefore, it...     

Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties

The capability of a set of 7 coordinated regional climate model simulations performed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project in reproducing the mean climate conditions over the South American continent has been evaluated. The model simulations were forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the period 1990–2008 on a grid resolution of 50 km, following the CORDEX protocol. The analysis was focused on evaluating the reliability of simulating mean precipitation and surface air temperature, which are the variables most commonly used for impact studies. Both the common features and the differences among individual models have been evaluated and compared against several observational datasets. In this study the ensemble bias and the degree of agreement among individual models have been quantified. The evaluation was focused on the seasonal means, the area-averaged annual cycles and the frequency distributions of monthly means over target sub-regions. Results show that the Regional Climate Model ensemble reproduces adequately well these features, with biases mostly within ±2 °C and ±20 % for temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, the multi-model ensemble depicts larger biases and larger uncertainty (as defined by the standard deviation of the models) over tropical regions compared with subtropical regions. Though some systematic biases were detected particularly over the La Plata Basin region, such as underestimation of rainfall during winter months and overestimation of temperature during summer months, every model shares a similar behavior and, consequently, the uncertainty in simulating current climate conditions is low. Every model is able to capture the variety in the shape of the frequency distribution for both temperature and precipitation along the South American continent. Differences among individual models and observations revealed the nature of individual model biases, showing either a shift in the distribution or an overestimation or underestimation of the range of variability.     

Moisture source for the Amazon Basin: a study of contrasting years

The regions where the divergence of vertically integrated water vapor flux, averaged over a season or a year, is positive (negative) are sources (sinks) of moisture for the atmosphere. An aerial river is defined as a stream of strong water vapor flux connecting a source and a sink. Moisture flux, its divergence, and sources and sinks over the tropics of South and Central America and the adjoining Atlantic Ocean are obtained for dry years and for wet years in the Amazon Basin. Results show that the Amazon Basin is a sink region for atmospheric moisture in all seasons and that there are two source regions for the moisture in the basin, one situated in the South Atlantic and the other in the North Atlantic, both located equator-ward of the respective subtropical high-pressure centers. The convergence of moisture increases over the Amazon Basin in austral summer, and at the same time it decreases in the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZs. Box model calculations reveal that the wet years, on the average, present about 55 % more moisture convergence than the dry years in the Amazon Basin. A reduction in the moisture inflow across the eastern and northern boundaries of the basin (at 45°W and at the Equator, respectively) and an increase in the outflow across the southern boundary (at 15°S) lead to dry conditions. The annual mean contribution of moisture convergence to the precipitation over the Amazon Basin is estimated to be 70 %. In the dry years, it lowers to around 50 %. The net convergence of water vapor flux over the basin is a good indicator of the wet or dry condition.     

Modeling monthly mean air temperature for Brazil

Air temperature is one of the main weather variables influencing agriculture around the world. Its availability, however, is a concern, mainly in Brazil where the weather stations are more concentrated on the coastal regions of the country. Therefore, the present study had as an objective to develop models for estimating monthly and annual mean air temperature for the Brazilian territory using multiple regression and geographic information system techniques. Temperature data from 2,400 stations distributed across the Brazilian territory were used, 1,800 to develop the equations and 600 for validating them, as well as their geographical coordinates and altitude as independent variables for the models. A total of 39 models were developed, relating the dependent variables maximum, mean, and minimum air temperatures (monthly and annual) to the independent variables latitude, longitude, altitude, and their combinations. All regression models were statistically significant (α?≤?0.01). The monthly and annual temperature models presented determination coefficients between 0.54 and 0.96. We obtained an overall spatial correlation higher than 0.9 between the models proposed and the 16 major models already published for some Brazilian regions, considering a total of 3.67?×?10⁸?pixels evaluated. Our national temperature models are recommended to predict air temperature in all Brazilian territories.     

THz photometers for solar flare observations from space

The search for the still unrevealed spectral shape of the mysterious THz solar flare emissions is one of the current most challenging research issues. The concept, fabrication and performance of a double THz photometer system, named SOLAR-T, is presented. Its innovative optical setup allows observations of the full solar disk and the detection of small burst transients at the same time. The detecting system was constructed to observe solar flare THz emissions on board of stratospheric balloons. The system has been integrated to data acquisition and telemetry modules for this application. SOLAR-T uses two Golay cell detectors preceded by low-pass filters made of rough surface primary mirrors and membranes, 3 and 7 THz band-pass filters, and choppers. Its photometers can detect small solar bursts (tens of solar flux units) with sub second time resolution. Tests have been conducted to confirm the entire system performance, on ambient and low pressure and temperature conditions. An artificial Sun setup was developed to simulate performance on actual observations. The experiment is planned to be on board of two long-duration stratospheric balloon flights over Antarctica and Russia in 2014–2016.     

Resonance trapping and evolution of particles subject to poynting-robertson drag: Adiabatic and non-adiabatic approaches

The problem of resonance trapping for particles subject to Poynting-Robertson drag is approached initially from an adiabatic regime theory. A simplified Hamiltonian system is presented for simple eccentricity-type resonances up to order 3, and expressions related to the trapping process are deduced. The fast dissipation provoked by Poynting-Robertson leads to the employment of a numerical approach for the computation of resonance capture probabilities, for particles in the size range of practical importance. Some aspects of the dynamical evolution of a particle after capture are noticed from results of numerical integrations. Analytical methods are used in order to confirm the numerical results.     

Discovery of the 'missing' mode in HR 1217 by the Whole Earth Telescope

HR 1217 is a prototypical rapidly oscillating Ap star that has presented a test to the theory of non-radial stellar pulsation. Prior observations showed a clear pattern of five modes with alternating frequency spacings of 33.3 and 34.6 μHz, with a sixth mode at a problematic spacing of 50.0 μHz (which equals  1.5×33.3 μHz)  to the high-frequency side. Asymptotic pulsation theory allowed for a frequency spacing of 34 μHz, but Hipparcos observations rule out such a spacing. Theoretical calculations of magnetoacoustic modes in Ap stars by Cunha predicted that there should be a previously undetected mode 34 μHz higher than the main group, with a smaller spacing between it and the highest one. In this Letter, we present preliminary results from a multisite photometric campaign on the rapidly oscillating Ap star HR 1217 using the 'Whole Earth Telescope'. While a complete analysis of the data will appear in a later paper, one outstanding result from this run is the discovery of a newly detected frequency in the pulsation spectrum of this star, at the frequency predicted by Cunha.     

On The Origin of The High-Perihelion Scattered Disk: The Role of The Kozai Mechanism And Mean Motion Resonances

We study the transfer process from the scattered disk (SD) to the high-perihelion scattered disk (HPSD) (defined as the population with perihelion distances q > 40 AU and semimajor axes a>50 AU) by means of two different models. One model (Model 1) assumes that SD objects (SDOs) were formed closer to the Sun and driven outwards by resonant coupling with the accreting Neptune during the stage of outward migration (Gomes 2003b, Earth, Moon, Planets 92, 29–42.). The other model (Model 2) considers the observed population of SDOs plus clones that try to compensate for observational discovery bias (Fernández et al. 2004, Icarus , in press). We find that the Kozai mechanism (coupling between the argument of perihelion, eccentricity, and inclination), associated with a mean motion resonance (MMR), is the main responsible for raising both the perihelion distance and the inclination of SDOs. The highest perihelion distance for a body of our samples was found to be q = 69.2 AU. This shows that bodies can be temporarily detached from the planetary region by dynamical interactions with the planets. This phenomenon is temporary since the same coupling of Kozai with a MMR will at some point bring the bodies back to states of lower-q values. However, the dynamical time scale in high-q states may be very long, up to several Gyr. For Model 1, about 10% of the bodies driven away by Neptune get trapped into the HPSD when the resonant coupling Kozai-MMR is disrupted by Neptune’s migration. Therefore, Model 1 also supplies a fossil HPSD, whose bodies remain in non-resonant orbits and thus stable for the age of the solar system, in addition to the HPSD formed by temporary captures of SDOs after the giant planets reached their current orbits. We find that about 12 – 15% of the surviving bodies of our samples are incorporated into the HPSD after about 4 – 5 Gyr, and that a large fraction of the captures occur for up to the 1:8 MMR (a ⋍ 120 AU), although we record captures up to the 1:24 MMR (a ≃ 260 AU). Because of the Kozai mechanism, HPSD objects have on average inclinations about 25°–50°, which are higher than those of the classical Edgeworth–Kuiper (EK) belt or the SD. Our results suggest that Sedna belongs to a dynamically distinct population from the HPSD, possibly being a member of the inner core of the Oort cloud. As regards to 2000 CR₁₀₅ , it is marginally within the region occupied by HPSD objects in the parametric planes (q,a) and (a,i), so it is not ruled out that it might be a member of the HPSD, though it might as well belong to the inner core.