Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Late Quaternary vegetation and climate dynamics in central-eastern Brazil: insights from a ~35k cal a bp peat record in the Cerrado biome

The late Quaternary evolution of central-eastern Brazil has been under-researched. Questions remain as to the origin of the Cerrado, a highly endangered biome, and other types of vegetation, such as the Capões – small vegetation islands of semi-deciduous and mountain forests. We investigated the factors that influenced the expansion and contraction of the Cerrado and Capões during the late Quaternary (last ~35 ka), using a multi-proxy approach: stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N), geochemistry, pollen and multivariate statistics derived from a peat core (Pinheiro mire, Serra do Espinhaço Meridional). Five major shifts in precipitation, temperature, vegetation and landscape stability occurred at different timescales. Our study revealed that changes in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) seem to have been coeval with these shifts: from the Late Glacial Maximum to mid-Holocene the SACZ remained near (~29.6 to ~16.5k cal a bp ) and over (~16.5 to ~6.1 k cal a bp ) the study area, providing humidity to the region. This challenges previous research which suggested that climate was drier for this time period. At present, the Capões are likely to be a remnant of a more humid climate; meanwhile, the Cerrado biome seems to have stablished in the late Holocene, after ~3.1 k cal a bp .     

Climatic signals in lacustrine deposits of the Upper Yacoraite Formation,Western Argentina: Evidence from clay minerals,analcime, dolomite and fibrous calcite

Authigenic clays are an important control on reservoir quality in lacustrine carbonates but remain challenging to predict. Lacustrine depositional systems respond to climatic variations in rainfall, surface runoff and groundwater input, and evaporation, and result in rapid and frequent changes in lake volume; this is expressed through changing water depth and shoreline position. In the upper portion of the Early Palaeocene Yacoraite Formation of the Salta Basin in Argentina, extensive lacustrine deposits were deposited during the sag phase of rifting. Prior high-resolution stratigraphic studies have suggested that climatic factors control microbial carbonate sequences within a ‘balanced fill’ lake, with variation in the lake level having a major influence on facies association changes. This study characterizes the evolution of facies and mineralogy within the Yacoraite Formation, focusing on the distribution of clay minerals, making a link between the high, medium and low-frequency sequence stratigraphic cycles. The low-frequency transgressive hemicycle of the upper portion of the Yacoraite Formation is comprised of abundant siliciclastic facies, suggesting a wetter period. Microbialites occurring in this interval are coarse-grained and agglutinated. Detrital clay minerals such as illite and chlorite and associated siliciclastic sediments were input to the lake during high-frequency transgressive periods. During high-frequency regressive hemicycles, sedimentation was dominated by carbonate facies with Ca-rich dolomite and the authigenic clays are comprised of chlorite/smectite mixed-layers. By contrast, the low frequency regressive hemicycle records fine-grained agglutinated microbialite with horizons of fibrous calcite, more stoichiometric dolomite, barite and authigenic magnesian smectite. This indicates elevated ion concentrations in the lake under intense evaporation during an arid period. Understanding the conditions that are favourable for formation and preservation of authigenic clays within the lacustrine environment can improve understanding of reservoir quality in comparable economically important deposits.     

Geochemical evidence of the 8.2 ka event and other Holocene environmental changes recorded in paleolagoon sediments,southeastern Brazil

The paleoclimatic record of Juréia Paleolagoon, coastal southeastern Brazil, includes cyclic and gradual changes with different intensities and frequencies through geological time, and it is controlled by astronomical, geophysical, and geological phenomena. These variations are not due to one single cause, but they result from the interaction of several factors, which act at different temporal and spatial scales. Here, we describe paleoenvironmental evidence regarding climatic and sea level changes from the last 9400 cal yr BP at the Juréia Paleolagoon — one of the main groups of protected South Atlantic ecosystems. Geochemical evidences were used to identify anomalies from multi-proxy analyses of a paleolagoon sediment core. The anomalies of centennial scale were correlated to climate and transgression–regression cycles from the Holocene period. Decadal scale anomalous oscillations in the Quaternary paleolagoon sediments occur between 9400 and 7500 cal yr BP, correlated with long- and short-term natural events, which generated high sedimentation rates, mainly between 8385 and 8375 cal yr BP (10 cm/yr). Our results suggest that a modern-day short-duration North Atlantic climatic event, such as the 8.2 ka event, could affect the environmental equilibrium in South America and intensify the South American Summer Monsoon.     

Chemostratigraphy of the Tamengo Formation (Corumbá Group,Brazil): A contribution to the calibration of the Ediacaran carbon-isotope curve

The Corumbá Group, cropping out in the southern Paraguay Belt in Brazil, is one of the most complete Ediacaran sedimentary archives of palaeogeographic, climatic, biogeochemical and biotic evolution in southwestern Gondwana. The unit hosts a rich fossil record, including acritarchs, vendotaenids (Vendotaenia, Eoholynia), soft-bodied metazoans (Corumbella) and skeletal fossils (Cloudina, Titanotheca). The Tamengo Formation, made up mainly of limestones and marls, provides a rich bio- and chemostratigraphic record. Several outcrops, formerly assigned to the Cuiabá Group, are here included in the Tamengo Formation on the basis of lithological and chemostratigraphical criteria. High-resolution carbon isotopic analyses are reported for the Tamengo Formation, showing (from base to top): (1) a positive δ¹³C excursion to +4‰ PDB above post-glacial negative values, (2) a negative excursion to −3.5‰ associated with a marked regression and subsequent transgression, (3) a positive excursion to +5.5‰, and (4) a plateau characterized by δ¹³C around +3‰. A U-Pb SHRIMP zircon age of an ash bed interbedded in the upper part of the δ¹³C positive plateau yielded 543 ± 3 Ma, which is considered as the depositional age ( Babinski et al., 2008a). The positive plateau in the upper Tamengo Formation and the preceding positive excursion are ubiquitous features in several successions worldwide, including the Nama Group (Namibia), the Dengying Formation (South China) and the Nafun and Ara groups (Oman). This plateau is constrained between 542 and 551 Ma, thus consistent with the age of the upper Tamengo Formation. The negative excursion of the lower Tamengo Formation may be correlated to the Shuram–Wonoka negative anomaly, although δ¹³C values do not fall beyond −3.5‰ in the Brazilian sections. Sedimentary breccias occur just beneath this negative excursion in the lower Tamengo Formation. One possible interpretation of the origin of these breccias is a glacioeustatic sea-level fall, but a tectonic interpretation cannot be completely ruled out.     

Mobility of potentially harmful metals in latosols impacted by the municipal solid waste deposit of Londrina,Brazil

The contamination of soils by metals issuing from municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal in tropical environments has hardly been studied with regard to the particular problems associated with them, i.e., generally a high permeability of soils despite the abundance of clay, and the role of reactive Fe compounds. From a previous geotechnical and chemical survey, three latosol profiles differently affected by MSW leachates in the region of Londrina (Paraná, Brazil) were selected. The aims were to evaluate the extent of their contamination, to better understand the fate of potentially harmful metals in tropical soils and rank the determining factors. Samples between 0.5 and 7 m depth were analyzed for their physical, mineralogical and chemical properties, and their micro-morphology was described by optical and transmission electron microscopy. Two steps of a sequential extraction procedure helped to assess the mobility of elements and to better discriminate between metals originating from pedogenesis and issued from MSW. These combined approaches showed that exposed soil profiles have been impacted at various depths, down to 7 m, through increased metal content, especially enhanced mobility of Zn, Co, Mn, Cu and Fe, and through increased salinity and organic matter. The mobility of potentially harmful metals should decrease with pH, which significantly increased in some impacted horizons, but other factors can reverse this trend.     

Use of Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate Strips in Soil Improvement

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Many studies have investigated polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polypropylene fibers in soil improvement. However, there is a lack of research using...     

On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

Natural Hazards - This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of...     

Microstructural evolution of the Seridó Belt, NE-Brazil: the effect of two tectonic events on development of c-axis preferred orientation in quartz

The polyphase evolution of the Seridó Belt (NE-Brazil) includes D₁ crust formation at 2.3–2.1 Ga, D₂ thrust tectonics at 1.9 Ga and crustal reworking by D₃ strike-slip shear zones at 600 Ma. Microstructural investigations within mylonites associated with D₂ and D₃ events were used to constrain the tectono-thermal evolution of the belt. D₂ shear zones commenced at deeper crustal levels and high amphibolite facies conditions (600–650 °C) through grain boundary migration, subgrain rotation and operation of quartz c-prism slip. Continued shearing and exhumation of the terrain forced the re-equilibration of high-T fabrics and the switching of slip systems from c-prism to positive and negative a-rhombs. During D₃, enhancement of ductility by dissipation of heat that came from syn-D₃ granites developed wide belts of amphibolite facies mylonites. Continued shearing, uplift and cooling of the region induced D₃ shear zones to act in ductile-brittle regimes, marked by fracturing and development of thinner belts of greenschist facies mylonites. During this event, switching from a-prism to a-basal slip indicates a thermal path from 600 to 350 °C. Therefore, microstructures and quartz c-axis fabrics in polydeformed rocks from the Seridó Belt preserve the record of two major events, which includes contrasting deformation mechanisms and thermal paths.     

Geochronology of weathering and landscape evolution, Dugald River valley, NW Queensland, Australia

⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar laser incremental heating analyses of individual grains of supergene jarosite, alunite, and cryptomelane from weathering profiles in the Dugald River area, Queensland, Australia, show a strong positive correlation between a sample’s age and its elevation. We analyzed 125 grains extracted from 35 hand specimens collected from weathering profiles at 11 sites located at 3 distinct elevations. The highest elevation profile hosts the oldest supergene minerals, whereas progressively younger samples occur at lower positions in the landscape. The highest elevation sampling sites (three sites), located on top of an elongated mesa (255 to 275 m elevation), yield ages in the 16 to 12 Ma range. Samples from an intermediate elevation site (225 to 230 m elevation) yield ages in the 6 to 4 Ma range. Samples collected at the lowest elevation sites (200 to 220 m elevation) yield ages in the 2.2 to 0.8 Ma interval.Grains of supergene alunite, jarosite, and cryptomelane analyzed from individual single hand specimens yield reproducible results, confirming the suitability of these minerals to ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology. Multiple samples collected from the same site also yield reproducible results, indicating that the ages measured are true precipitation ages for the samples analyzed. Different sites, up to 3 km apart, sampled from weathering profiles at the same elevation again yield reproducible results. The consistency of results confirms that ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology of supergene jarosite, alunite, and cryptomelane yields ages of formation of weathering profiles, providing a reliable numerical basis for differentiating and correlating these profiles.The age versus elevation relationship obtained suggest that the stepped landscapes in the Dugald River area record a progressive downward migration of a relatively flat weathering front. The steps in the landscape result from differential erosion of previously weathered bedrock displaying different susceptibility to weathering and contrasting resistance to erosion. Combined, the age versus elevation relationships measured yield a weathering rate of 3.8 m. Myr⁻¹ (for the past 15 Ma) if a descending subhorizontal weathering front is assumed. The results also permit the calculation of the erosion rate of the more easily weathered and eroded lithologies, assuming an initially flat landscape as proposed in models of episodic landscape development. The average erosion rate for the past 15 Ma is 3.3 m. Myr⁻¹, consistent with erosion rates obtained by cosmogenic isotope studies in the region.