Forecasting the HIV epidemic in Finland by using functional small area units

The purpose of this study is to analyze the development of the HIV epidemic in Finland in 1983–1994, and to predict the spatial distribution of new cases through 1997. The analysis is based on seroepidemiological data of all reported HIV carriers and a number of explaining variables based on individual level register data. Instead of focusing on populations of carriers and susceptibles, emphasis is placed on identifying the primary influences directing the epidemic as a spatial process. This is done by dividing Finland into 62 functional small area units and by assigning the risk of obtaining the virus to each unit based on behavioral, socioeconomic, interaction, and structural characteristics of the population. The approach is a multistep procedure including multivariate regression analysis, the potential model, and time series analysis. The model was used to produce a three-year forecast of the distribution of new HIV carriers in Finland. Compared with earlier studies of similar nature based on the use of administrative regional units, in this paper the forecast distribution of HIV cases is more closely related to the functional structure of the spatial system in Finland. Such an approach offers a method for producing more reliable short-term forecasts of the spatial distribution of new HIV cases. Three different spatial diffusion patterns were identified.     

The variable impact of ENSO events on regional dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Although studies have demonstrated significant associations between ENSO events and dengue fever, few have explored regional impacts on dengue fever of separate events. This study explores the impacts of two ENSO events on regional patterns of dengue/ dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence in Indonesia. Data consist of monthly cases of dengue/DHF from 1992 to 2001 for each of Indonesia's 27 provinces, and monthly figures for rainfall, rainfall anomalies, temperature, relative humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We conducted Pearson correlation analyses for each independent variable against dengue/DHF incidence, using a direct month‐by‐month correlation and applying a lag of between one and six months to each variable with respect to dengue/DHF incidence. Based on the SOI value, we identified two ENSO events between 1992 and 2001. To explore each event, we created two dummy variables and in regression analyses for eight provinces. The variance of between 12.9 per cent and 24.5 per cent in provincial dengue/DHF incidence is explained by two or three climate variables in each of the provinces (p < 0.01 to 0.1). During the 1997/98 event, the explained variance increased by between 7 per cent and 15 per cent in provinces whose climate regimes were most affected by this event. This study demonstrates that indicators of ENSO such as the SOI may assist in the forecast of potential dengue/DHF incidence and distribution in Indonesia.     

Agrometeorological models for forecasting the qualitative attributes of “Valência” oranges

Forecasting is the act of predicting unknown future events using available data. Estimating, in contrast, uses data to simulate an actual condition. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of oranges, and the state of São Paulo is the largest producer in Brazil. The “Valência” orange is among the most common cultivars in the state. We analyzed the influence of monthly meteorological variables during the growth cycle of Valência oranges grafted onto “Rangpur” lime rootstocks (VACR) for São Paulo, and developed monthly agrometeorological models for forecasting the qualitative attributes of VACR in mature orchard. For fruits per box for all months, the best accuracy was of 0.84 % and the minimum forecast range of 4 months. For the relation between °brix and juice acidity (RATIO) the best accuracy was of 0.69 % and the minimum forecast range of 5 months. Minimum, mean and maximum air temperatures, and relative evapotranspiration were the most important variables in the models.     

Fatal landslides in Europe

Landslides are a major hazard causing human and large economic losses worldwide. However, the quantification of fatalities and casualties is highly underestimated and incomplete, thus, the estimation of landslide risk is rather ambitious. Hence, a spatio-temporal distribution of deadly landslides is presented for 27 European countries over the last 20  years (1995–2014). Catastrophic landslides are widely distributed throughout Europe, however, with a great concentration in mountainous areas. In the studied period, a total of 1370 deaths and 784 injuries were reported resulting from 476 landslides. Turkey showed the highest fatalities with 335. An increasing trend of fatal landslides is observed, with a pronounced number of fatalities in the latest period from 2008 to 2014. The latter are mostly triggered by natural extreme events such as storms (i.e., heavy rainfall), earthquakes, and floods and only minor by human activities, such as mining and excavation works. Average economic loss per year in Europe is approximately 4.7 billion Euros. This study serves as baseline information for further risk mapping by integrating deadly landslide locations, local land use data, and will therefore help countries to protect human lives and property.     

Entries and omissions: using solicited diaries in geographical research

This paper explores the use of personal solicited diaries as a qualitative research tool within social geography. Diaries were used with women from South Africa who recorded their experiences of violence over a period of one month. The paper analyses diaries in terms of their longitudinal benefits, their socially constituted nature, their use in conjunction with interviews and finally their potential for empowerment. The paper concludes with a discussion of the limitations of the diary as a methodological tool.     

Rethinking the ‘domus’ in domestic violence: homelessness, space and domestic violence in South Africa

An examination of domestic violence and where it takes place provides significant insight into debates about the meaning of home. It is argued here that discussions of domestic violence could make more use of feminist geographers’ and development theorists’ analyses of the home. Examining the experiences of homeless and insecurely housed women in Durban, the paper aims to explore ideas of ‘home’ implicit in much research on domestic violence and argues that these ideas require further examination. The paper focuses on three assumptions about the home (in experiences of domestic violence); namely, the home as a formal material space, the home as private, and the domicile as home. In conclusion the paper argues for a more nuanced understanding of home.     

GIS Methodology for Characterizing Historical Conditions of the Willamette River Flood Plain, Oregon

Recent environmental developments have stimulated an interest in conservation and restoration of the historical Willamette River flood plain, both to protect against flooding and to provide wildlife habitat. In order to best utilize scarce resources, we characterized historical and modern river channel and flood‐plain conditions to evaluate changes and help prioritize restoration sites. Using cartographic and photographic data sources, we developed a Geographic Information System (GIS) to map active channels, side channels, islands and tributaries for four separate dates, as well as riparian and flood‐plain vegetation characteristics for pre‐European settlement and modern time periods. Coverages based on flood records and other boundaries were used to partition the flood plain into spatial subsets for analysis. The GIS allowed comparisons between historical and present conditions for a variety of environmental factors. Much of the pre‐settlement channel complexity has been removed. Total channel length in 1995 was 26% less than in 1850, with almost 58% of the river's side channels disconnected from the system. In addition, we found a 72% loss of flood‐plain forest from 1850 to 1995, since it was converted to agricultural and urban land uses. Selected river and flood‐plain variables were made available for a spatial model to prioritize potential locations for flood‐plain restoration.     

Electrodialytic treatment of sewage sludge: influence on microbiological community

This study aimed to evaluate the changes in microbiological communities present in sewage sludge (SS) when subjected to an electric field. The establishment of these relations is important to design and optimize an electrotechnology that not only promotes a direct degradation of the emerging organic contaminants, through electrodegradation, but also stimulates their biodegradation. Different current intensities were used continuously or by steps, in a two compartment electrodialytic (ED) cell. Samples collected between May and July of 2015 were analysed, prior to ED treatment, and the 35 Taxa identified were divided in 12 groups. Initial samples, collected on May, were mainly constituted by stalked ciliates (86%), followed by shelled amoebae (8%), whereas the samples collected between June and July presented higher number of shelled amoebae, between 52 and 92%. Epistylis, Vorticella and Arcella gibbosa were the most frequent protozoa identified. Samples richness (R) was between 7 and 14, Simpson’s biodiversity index (D) between 0.45 and 0.69, and evenness between 0.42 and 0.65. At the end of the ED experiments, a decrease in the number of identified Taxa and individuals was observed and, consequently, SS biodiversity also decreased. This decline was more pronounced in the ED experiments conducted with currents above 50 mA (0.10 mA cm^?2). In terms of abundance, the final SS was mainly constituted by shelled amoebae that showed to be the most resistant to the conditions within the ED cell. The obtained results showed that the studied conditions within the ED cell were not appropriate to the microbiological communities, which influenced the final SS quality.     

Tracing salinization processes in coastal aquifers using an isotopic and geochemical approach: comparative studies in western Morocco and southwest Portugal

Environmental stable and radioactive isotopes (δ²H, δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O; ³H and ¹⁴C), together with physical and geochemical data, were used in the determination of the origins of groundwater salinization and geochemical evolution processes in coastal regions. Two case studies on the Atlantic Coast are discussed, one located in the Essaouira sedimentary basin, western Morocco, and the second, in the Lower Tagus–Sado sedimentary basin, southwest Portugal. In both regions, groundwater degradation occurs by salinization increase to different concentrations and in relation to different origins. The main quality issues for the groundwater resources are related to seawater intrusion, dissolution of diapiric structures intruding the aquifer layers, brine dissolution at depth, and/or evaporation of irrigation water. Anthropogenic pollution ascribed to agricultural activities is another source for groundwater degradation, affecting mainly the shallow aquifers. The apparent ¹⁴C age of the analysed samples ranges from 2.9?±?0.3 up to 45.6?±?0.6 pmC in the Miocene groundwater samples from the basin in Portugal; at the Essaouira basin in Morocco, the ¹⁴C content varies from 60 to 86 pmC. In most of the water samples, the ³H concentration is below the detection limit. In both basins, the isotopic results together with the geochemical data provided an effective label for tracing the mineralization origin and groundwater degradation processes. Further, the isotopic signatures were used in the identification of a paleoclimate (colder period), recorded in the stable isotopic composition and corroborated with the ¹⁴C data.