Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Mineralized Microbiota: A Possible Indicator of Hydrocarbon Flows in the Rift Zone of Iceland

Relationships of mineralized microbiota with the content of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in hydrothermal systems are considered. It has been established that the mineralized microbiota can serve as an indicator of hydrothermal hydrocarbon flows in present-day and ancient deposits.     

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Smoothing and Change Point Detection for Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray detectors are used to measure the natural radioactivity of rocks. For a number of boreholes drilled at a site the gamma ray detector is lowered into each borehole and counts of gamma ray emissions at different depths are recorded as the instrument is gradually raised to ground level. The profile of gamma counts can be informative about the geology at each location. The raw count data are highly variable, and in this paper we describe the use of adaptive smoothing techniques and change point models in order to identify changes in the geology based on the gamma logs. We formulate all our models for the data in the framework of the class of generalized linear models, and describe computational methods for Bayesian inference and model selection for generalized linear models that improve on existing techniques. Application is made to gamma ray data from the Castelreagh Waste Management Centre which served as a hazardous waste disposal facility for the Sydney region between March 1974 and August 1998. Understanding the geological structure of this site is important for further modelling the transport of pollutants beneath the waste disposal area.     

Geochemistry of the Early Jurassic Messejana-Plasencia dyke (Portugal-Spain); Implications on the Origin of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province

The Messejana–Plasencia dyke (MPD) is one of the largestdoleritic dykes of the so-called Central Atlantic Magmatic Province(CAMP). Emplaced at     

Are catch-up reefs an artefact of coring?

Drill cores through modern coral reefs commonly show a time lag in reef initiation followed by a phase of rapid accretion to sea level from submerged foundations – the so-called ‘catch-up response’. But because of the difficulty of drilling in these environments, core distribution is usually restricted to accessible areas that may not fully represent reef history, especially if the reef initiated in patches or developed with a prograde or retrograde geometry. As a consequence, core data have the potential to give a misleading impression of reef development, particularly with respect to the timing of initiation and response to sea-level rise. Here, we use computer models to simulate keep-up reef development and, from them, quantify variations in the timing of reef initiation and accretion rate using mock cores taken through the completed simulations. The results demonstrate that cores consistently underestimate the timing of reef initiation and overestimate the reef accretion rate so that, statistically, a core through a keep-up reef will most likely produce a catch-up pattern – an initiation lag followed by a phase of rapid accretion to sea level. This implies that catch-up signatures may be an artefact of coring and that keep-up reefs are significantly more common than previous core studies claim.     

Contrasting metamorphic evolution of metasedimentary rocks from the Çine and Selimiye nappes in the Anatolide belt, western Turkey

Abstract P–T conditions, mineral isograds, the relation of the latter to foliation planes and kinematic indicators are used to elucidate the tectonic nature and evolution of a shear zone in an orogen exhumed from mid‐crustal depths in western Turkey. Furthermore, we discuss whether simple monometamorphic fabrics of rock units from different nappes result from one single orogeny or are related to different orogenies. Metasedimentary rocks from the Çine and Selimiye nappes at the southern rim of the Anatolide belt of western Turkey record different metamorphic evolutions. The Eocene Selimiye shear zone separates both nappes. Metasedimentary rocks from the Çine nappe underneath the Selimiye shear zone record maximum P–T conditions of about 7 kbar and >550 °C. Metasedimentary rocks from the overlying Selimiye nappe have maximum P–T conditions of 4 kbar and c. 525 °C near the base of the nappe. Kinematic indicators in both nappes are related to movement on the Selimiye shear zone and consistently show a top‐S shear sense. Metamorphic grade in the Selimiye nappe decreases structurally upwards as indicated by mineral isograds defining the garnet‐chlorite zone at the base, the chloritoid‐biotite zone and the biotite‐chlorite zone at the top of the nappe. The mineral isograds in the Selimiye nappe run parallel to the regional S_R foliation, parallel the Selimiye shear zone and indicate that the Selimiye shear zone formed during this prograde greenschist to lower amphibolite facies metamorphic event but remained active after the peak of metamorphism. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar mica ages and the tectonometamorphic relationship with the Eocene Cyclades–Menderes thrust, which occurs above the Selimiye nappe in the study area, suggests an Eocene age of metamorphism in the Selimiye nappe. Metasedimentary rocks of the Çine nappe 20–30 km north of the Selimiye shear zone record maximum P–T conditions of 8–11 kbar and 600–650 °C. An age of about 550 Ma is indicated for amphibolite facies metamorphism and associated top‐N shear in the orthogneiss of the Çine nappe. Our study shows that simple monophase tectonometamorphic fabrics do not always indicate a simple orogenic development of a nappe stack. Preservation in some areas and complete overprinting of those fabrics in other areas apparently occur very heterogeneously.     

Metamorphic petrology and zircon geochronology of high-grade rocks from the central Mozambique Belt of Tanzania: crustal recycling of Archean and Palaeoproterozoic material during the Pan-African orogeny

New data on the metamorphic petrology and zircon geochronology of high‐grade rocks in the central Mozambique Belt (MB) of Tanzania show that this part of the orogen consists of Archean and Palaeoproterozoic material that was structurally reworked during the Pan‐African event. The metamorphic rocks are characterized by a clockwise P–T path, followed by strong decompression, and the time of peak granulite facies metamorphism is similar to other granulite terranes in Tanzania. The predominant rock types are mafic to intermediate granulites, migmatites, granitoid orthogneisses and kyanite/sillimanite‐bearing metapelites. The meta‐granitoid rocks are of calc‐alkaline composition, range in age from late Archean to Neoproterozoic, and their protoliths were probably derived from magmatic arcs during collisional processes. Mafic to intermediate granulites consist of the mineral assemblage garnet–clinopyroxene–plagioclase–quartz–biotite–amphibole ± K‐feldspar ± orthopyroxene ± oxides. Metapelites are composed of garnet‐biotite‐plagioclase ± K‐feldspar ± kyanite/sillimanite ± oxides. Estimated values for peak granulite facies metamorphism are 12–13 kbar and 750–800 °C. Pressures of 5–8 kbar and temperatures of 550–700 °C characterize subsequent retrogression to amphibolite facies conditions. Evidence for a clockwise P–T path is provided by late growth of sillimanite after kyanite in metapelites. Zircon ages indicate that most of the central part of the MB in Tanzania consists of reworked ancient crust as shown by Archean (c. 2970–2500 Ma) and Palaeoproterozoic (c. 2124–1837 Ma) protolith ages. Metamorphic zircon from metapelites and granitoid orthogneisses yielded ages of c. 640 Ma which are considered to date peak regional granulite facies metamorphism during the Pan‐African orogenic event. However, the available zircon ages for the entire MB in East Africa and Madagascar also document that peak metamorphic conditions were reached at different times in different places. Large parts of the MB in central Tanzania consist of Archean and Palaeoproterozoic material that was reworked during the Pan‐African event and that may have been part of the Tanzania Craton and Usagaran domain farther to the west.