The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated ClimatePrediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climateresponse to projected CO₂, sulfate, and other greenhouse gasforcingunder a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data fromthese runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain criticalfields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrologicalcycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3–8 °C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1–2 °C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1°Cof model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in theAntarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in theACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Althoughthe difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimalbetween the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be largerfor CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Ourresults suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such asthose associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changesfor the next 50–100 years may be negligible.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Century-Scale Change in Water Availability: CO2-Quadrupling Experiment

It has been suggested that, unless a major effort is made, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide may rise above four times the pre-industrial level in a few centuries. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model to explore the response of the global water cycle to such a large increase in carbon dioxide, focusing on river discharge and soil moisture. Our results suggest that water is going to be more plentiful in those regions of the world that are already `water-rich'. However, water stresses will increase significantly in regions and seasons that are already relatively dry. This could pose a very challenging problem for water-resource management around the world. For soil moisture, our results indicate reductions during much of the year in many semi-arid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. In some of these regions, soil moisture values are reduced by almost a factor of two during the dry season. The drying in semi-arid regions is likely to induce the outward expansion of deserts to the surrounding regions. Over extensive regions of both the Eurasian and North American continents in high and middle latitudes, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter, in contrast to the situation in semi-arid regions. For river discharge, our results indicate an average increase of ～ 15% during the next few centuries. The discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by much larger fractions. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra also increase considerably. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller.     

Estimation of Site Effects in Beijing City

— For the realistic modeling of the seismic ground motion in lateral heterogeneous anelastic media, the database of 3-D geophysical structures for Beijing City has been built up to model the seismic ground motion in the City, caused by the 1976 Tangshan and the 1998 Zhangbei earthquakes. The hybrid method, which combines the modal summation and the finite-difference algorithms, is used in the simulation. The modeling of the seismic ground motion, for both the Tangshan and the Zhangbei earthquakes, shows that the thick Quaternary sedimentary cover amplifies the peak values and increases the duration of the seismic ground motion in the northwestern part of the City. Therefore the thickness of the Quaternary sediments in Beijing City is the key factor controling the local ground effects. Four zones are defined on the base of the different thickness of the Quaternary sediments. The response spectra for each zone are computed, indicating that peak spectral values as high as 0.1 g are compatible with past seismicity and can be well exceeded if an event similar to the 1697 Sanhe-Pinggu occurs.     

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.     

Hydrological–Morphological Zoning of the Mouth Zone of the Selenga River

According to the two-term principle of zoning of mouth areas, parts of the mouth area of the Selenga River are recognized and their boundaries are determined based on hydrological–morphological characteristics.     

Biotesting in the Assessment of Environmental and Toxicological State of Water Bodies in Lower Don River Basin

The toxicity of river water in the Lower Don basin was studied using biotesting with different biological objects. Water taken from most examined reaches of the Don and its tributaries was shown to exert toxic effect on crustaceans, algae, protozoa, and Rotifera.     

Effect of Anthropogenic Eutrophication on Zooplankton Distribution in Kondopoga Bay of Lake Onega

Changes in the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of zooplankton in Kondopoga Bay, Lake Onega, under long-term anthropogenic influence are discussed, and the effect of water pollution on changes in the zooplankton community is considered.     

Use of microtremor measurement for assessing site effects in Northern Belgium – interpretation of the observed intensity during the MS = 5.0 June 11 1938 earthquake

To provide quantitative information on site effects in the northern part of Belgium, forty-seven H/V microtremor measurements were performed with 5 second seismometers over an area of about 15.000 km². Most of the results show a northward regular increase of the fundamental period in agreement with the augmentation of the Mesozoic and Cainozoic soft sedimentsthickness from a few meters 40 km south of Brussels to 900 m at the Netherlands-Belgium border. The measured resonance frequency values wereconsistent with theoretical computations performed at different sites onthe basis of existing information and shallow seismic experiments. At oneparticular site (Uccle) where borehole data were available, microtremor measurements using an array of four seismological stations with differentapertures allowed to obtain the low frequency part of the Rayleigh wave dispersion curve, extending the range covered by the analysis of surfacewaves artificially generated. The Vs profile derived from the surface waveinversion corroborates the 1 Hz natural frequency of the site. Comparison of these results with the macroseismic information concerning the M_S = 5.0 1938 earthquake which occurred 50 km west of Brussels,confirmed the hypothesis that the geological structure of the Brabant massifis likely to control damage distribution during such an earthquake. Comparisonbetween the intensity map of the 1938 earthquake and the resonance period ofsediments obtained by our microtremor study shows a clear relation betweenthe two parameters. During the 1938 earthquake, site effects played a prominent role due to the dimension of the source whose corner frequency wasabout 1 Hz.     

Carbon-Oxidizing and Sulfate-Reducing Bacteria in Mozhaisk Reservoir Soils

The population and distribution of carbon-oxidizing and sulfate-reducing bacteria in the soils of the Mozhaisk Reservoir are studied.