Geochemistry of suspended matter from the Baltic Sea 2. Results of bulk trace metal analysis by AAS

In 1984, on a transect covering the whole Baltic Sea and parts of the adjacent North Sea, 160 water samples were taken and analysed for their concentrations of particulate and dissolved metals. In addition, the suspended materials were investigated for their elemental bulk composition.The particulate fractions represented from about 5% (Cd, Cu and Ni) to 50% (Fe and Pb) of the total (particulate plus dissolved) concentrations. For some elements (Ba, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn), the particulate matter from the surface microlayer was enriched with respect to those suspended materials taken from 0.2 m depth. This could reflect the atmospheric input of metal-rich aerosols. In anoxic deep waters, maximum contents of Zn (6400 μg g⁻¹), Cu (1330 μg g⁻¹) and Cd (12 μg g⁻¹) were observed in the particulate matter, indicating sulphidic forms. On the other hand, under oxic conditions the distribution coefficients (K_d) decreased with the water depth (Cd, Fe and Pb).Relative to global background levels, the particulate matter contained metal “excesses” amounting to more than 90% of the total contents (Cd, Mn, Pb and Zn). Automated electron probe X-ray microanalysis (EPXMA) revealed that the elemental composition of sediments is mainly governed by post-depositional processes of early diagenesis and is only weakly related to the composition of suspended matter in the overlying water body. For instance, in relation to surface mud sediments of the central Baltic net-sedimentation basins, Zn, Cd, Cu and Mn had 30–100% higher levels in the suspended materials. The general pattern of metal contents of particulate matter taken from 10 m depth on a transect between the Bothnian Bay and the North Sea were—possibly as a result of anthropogenic inputs—rather similar for Pb, Zn and Cu. For Fe and Mn, the distribution patterns along the transect were probably governed by the natural loading characteristics and by the biogeochemistry of those elements.     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

Postglacial vegetation history of Mitkof Island, Alexander Archipelago, southeastern Alaska

An AMS radiocarbon-dated pollen record from a peat deposit on Mitkof Island, southeastern Alaska provides a vegetation history spanning ∼12,900 cal yr BP to the present. Late Wisconsin glaciers covered the entire island; deglaciation occurred > 15,400 cal yr BP. The earliest known vegetation to develop on the island (∼12,900 cal yr BP) was pine woodland (Pinus contorta) with alder (Alnus), sedges (Cyperaceae) and ferns (Polypodiaceae type). By ∼12,240 cal yr BP, Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) began to colonize the island while pine woodland declined. By ∼11,200 cal yr BP, mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) began to spread across the island. Sitka spruce-mountain hemlock forests dominated the lowland landscapes of the island until ∼10,180 cal yr BP, when western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) began to colonize, and soon became the dominant tree species. Rising percentages of pine, sedge, and sphagnum after ∼7100 cal yr BP may reflect an expansion of peat bog habitats as regional climate began to shift to cooler, wetter conditions. A decline in alders at that time suggests that coastal forests had spread into the island's uplands, replacing large areas of alder thickets. Cedars (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis, Thuja plicata) appeared on Mitkof Island during the late Holocene.     

A community-wide intercomparison exercise for the determination of dissolved iron in seawater

The first large-scale international intercomparison of analytical methods for the determination of dissolved iron in seawater was carried out between October 2000 and December 2002. The exercise was conducted as a rigorously “blind” comparison of 7 analytical techniques by 24 international laboratories. The comparison was based on a large volume (700 L), filtered surface seawater sample collected from the South Atlantic Ocean (the “IRONAGES” sample), which was acidified, mixed and bottled at sea. Two 1-L sample bottles were sent to each participant. Integrity and blindness were achieved by having the experiment designed and carried out by a small team, and overseen by an independent data manager. Storage, homogeneity and time-series stability experiments conducted over 2.5 years showed that inter-bottle variability of the IRONAGES sample was good (< 7%), although there was a decrease in iron concentration in the bottles over time (0.8–0.5 nM) before a stable value was observed. This raises questions over the suitability of sample acidification and storage.