Pathways to seismic hazard evaluation: Extreme and characteristic earthquakes in areas of low and high seismicity

The general philosophy of seismic hazard evaluation described here is appropriate for selection of seismic input to regional earthquake engineering codes prior to detailed on-site inspections and geotechnical assessments. Some probabilistic seismic hazard methodologies which can be applied in areas of low and high seismicity, are briefly described to emphasise the main equations with specimen results. Three aspects of hazard assessment are explored by different pathways. These include the analysis of regional earthquake catalogues to obtain magnitude recurrence, particularly using Gumbel extreme value statistics. This is extended to assess ground shaking hazard which is usually sought by earthquake engineers. Thirdly, the concept of earthquake perceptibility is developed, leading to the identification of an earthquake magnitude or type which is characteristic of a region. This most perceptible earthquake is most likely to be felt at any site in a region and provides an earthquake selection criterion which can be used in aseismic design of noncritical structures. Because there are several methods of seismic hazard evaluation, the view is expressed that it is sensible for practical purposes to seek results from different methods or different pathways to the hazard evaluation.Paper presented at the Commission of the European Communities' School on Earthquake Hazard Evaluation, Athens, and at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, held in Sofia, 1988.Now at School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, University Plain, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K.     

Observations of Lake-Breeze Events During the Toronto 2015 Pan-American Games

Enhanced meteorological observations were made during the 2015 Pan and Parapan American Games in Toronto in order to measure the vertical and horizontal structure of lake-breeze events. Two scanning Doppler lidars (one fixed and one mobile), a C-band radar, and a network including 53 surface meteorological stations (mesonet) provided pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind speed and direction measurements over Lake Ontario and urban areas. These observations captured the full evolution (prior, during, and after) of 27 lake-breeze events (73% of observation days) in order to characterize the convective and dynamic processes driving lake breezes at the local scale and mesoscale. The dominant signal of a passing lake-breeze front (LBF) was an increase in dew-point temperature of \(2.3 \pm 0.3 \,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\), coinciding with a \(180^{\circ }\) shift in wind direction and a decrease in air temperature of \(2.1 \pm 0.2 \,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\). Doppler lidar observations over the lake detected lake breezes 1 hour (on average) before detection by radar and mesonet. On days with the synoptic flow in the offshore direction, the lidars observed wedge-shaped LBFs with shallow depths, which inhibited the radar’s ability to detect the lake breeze. The LBF’s ground speed and inland penetration distance were found to be well-correlated (\(r = 0.78\)), with larger inland penetration distances occurring on days with non-opposing (non-offshore) synoptic flow. The observed enhanced vertical motion \(({>} 1\hbox { m s}^{-1})\) at the LBF, observed by the lidar on 54% of lake-breeze days, was greater (at times \({>} 2.5\hbox { m s}^{-1}\)) than that observed in previous studies and longer-lasting over the lake than over land. The weaker and less pronounced lake-breeze structure over land is illustrated in two case studies highlighting the lifetime of the lake-breeze circulation and the impact of propagation distance on lake-breeze intensity.     

Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction

A primary step in the interpretation of speleothem stable isotope records (¹⁸O/¹⁶O and ¹³C/¹²C) is to conduct a comparison with other local palaeoclimate proxies. Here, two new master speleothem δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records (one from eastern North Island, and the other from western/southern South Island, New Zealand) are evaluated against independent precipitation and temperature proxy information to assess their palaeoclimate reconstruction potential. This comparison also resulted in a serendipitous opportunity to reconstruct past circulation using climate regime classification [Lorrey, A.M., Fowler, A.M., Salinger, J., 2007a. Regional climate regime classification as a qualitative tool for interpreting multi-proxy palaeoclimate data spatial patterns: a New Zealand case study. Palaeo-3, in press], specifically because these two regional climate districts are hyper-sensitive to westerly circulation changes, and in many cases, exhibit contrasting climate character in response to circulation anomalies.For both the western South Island and the eastern North Island master speleothem δ¹³C records, variations tracked changes in relative regional precipitation. The δ¹⁸O master speleothem record for both regions varied with temperature change. Both records contain strong regional climate signals that suggest they have good value for palaeoclimate reconstruction. The ensuing attempt at a multi-proxy reconstruction of regional climate regimes from the compiled proxies indicates past circulation in the New Zealand sector has varied considerably during the past four millennia. Centennial-scale circulation changes for the past 4000 years are evident, and are analogous to modern Blocking, Zonal and Trough regime types [Kidson J. W., 2000. An analysis of New Zealand synoptic types and their use in defining weather regimes. International Journal of Climatology 20, 299–316] that characterise changes in present-day (prevailing) westerly circulation. This palaeoclimate reconstruction indicates modern regional climate regime classification can be extended at least as far back as the temporal coverage of the records presented here, and it can likely be improved on with better dating control and the addition of new records with higher resolution. It is also anticipated that future work will expand to include more proxy data from across New Zealand to improve the clarity of past climate regime occurrence for the Late Holocene.     

Ar-Ar dating of plagioclase grain size separates from silicate inclusions in IAB iron meteorites and implications for the thermochronological evolution of the IAB parent body

In order to better constrain the thermochronological evolution of the IAB parent body we performed a ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age study on individual silicate inclusions of the IAB irons Caddo County, Campo del Cielo, Landes, and Ocotillo. In contrast to earlier studies, several plagioclase separates of different grain sizes and quality grades were extracted from each inclusion to reduce the complexity of the age spectra and study the influence of these parameters on the Ar-Ar ages. In nearly all inclusions we found significantly different Ar-Ar ages among the separates (Caddo County: 4.472 ± 0.02-4.562 ± 0.02 Ga; Campo del Cielo 2: 4.362 ± 0.04-4.442 ± 0.03 Ga; Landes 2: 4.412 ± 0.05-4.522 ± 0.04 Ga; Ocotillo: 4.382 ± 0.04-4.462 ± 0.03 Ga). These ages were calculated using the new ⁴⁰K decay constant published by [Mundil R., Renne P. R., Min K. and Ludwig K. R. (2006) Resolvable miscalibration of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronometer. Eos Trans. AGU 87, Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract V21A-0543]. The ages did not systematically correlate with the respective grain size of the separate as expected, i.e., smaller grains did not necessarily show younger ages due to later closure to Ar diffusion or easier re-opening of the system in the course of a reheating event compared to larger grains. Based on the large range of Ar-Ar ages we suggest that the individual inclusions are composed of silicate grains from different locations within the IAB parent body. While some grains remained in a hot (deep) environment that allowed Ar diffusion over an extended time period—in some cases combined with grain coarsening—, others cooled significantly earlier (near surface) through the K/Ar blocking temperature. These different grains where brought together during an impact followed by mixing and reassembly of the debris as proposed by Benedix et al. [Benedix G. K., McCoy T. J., Keil K. and Love S. G. (2000) A petrologic study of the IAB iron meteorites: constraints on the formation of the IAB-Winonaite parent body. Meteorit. Planet. Sci.35, 1127-1141]. Due to rapid cooling after the impact some of the age differences among the grains could be preserved. Based mainly on our Caddo County Ar-Ar age information, the IAB parent body was destroyed by impact and reassembled between ∼4.5 and 4.47 Ga. However, IAB silicate Ar-Ar ages should depend much more on the pre- and post-impact cooling rate and burial depth than on the time of the actual impact. This is supported by a compilation of our and literature IAB and winonaite Ar-Ar ages ranging smoothly from the time of accretion of the chondritic IAB parent body down to the time of its final cooling through the K-Ar blocking temperature after impact and reassembly, instead of showing a peak in Ar-Ar ages at the time of the destructive impact.     

Fossil–Lagerstätten

Possibly every palaeontologist, before and after Charles Darwin, has been well aware that the fossil record is very incomplete. Only a tiny percentage of the plants and animals alive at any one time in the past get preserved as fossils, both in terms of numbers of individuals and in terms of numbers of species. The palaeontologist attempting to reconstruct ancient ecosystems is therefore, in effect, trying to complete a jigsaw puzzle without the picture on the box lid and for which the majority of pieces are missing. Under normal preservational conditions probably only around 15 per cent of the species composing an ecosystem are preserved. Moreover, the fossil record is biased in favour of those animals and plants with hard, mineralized shells, skeletons or cuticles, and towards those living in marine environments. Thus, the preservational potential of a particular organism depends on two main factors: its constitution (better if it contains hard parts), and its habitat (better if it lives in an environment where sedimentary deposition occurs).     

In situ arsenic removal in an alkaline clastic aquifer

In situ removal of As from ground water used for water supply has been accomplished elsewhere in circum-neutral ground water containing high dissolved Fe(II) concentrations. The objective of this study was to evaluate in situ As ground-water treatment approaches in alkaline ground-water (pH > 8) that contains low dissolved Fe (<a few tens of μg/L). The low dissolved Fe content limits development of significant Fe-oxide and the high-pH limits As adsorption onto Fe-oxide. The chemistries of ground water in the two aquifers studied are similar except for the inorganic As species. Although total inorganic As concentrations were similar, one aquifer has dominantly aqueous As(III) and the other has mostly As(V). Dissolved O₂, Fe(II), and HCl were added to water and injected into the two aquifers to form Fe-oxide and lower the pH to remove As. Cycles of injection and withdrawal involved varying Fe(II) concentrations in the injectate. The As concentrations in water withdrawn from the two aquifers were as low as 1 and 6 μg/L, with greater As removal from the aquifer containing As(V). However, Fe and Mn concentrations increased to levels greater than US drinking water standards during some of the withdrawal periods. A balance between As removal and maintenance of low Fe and Mn concentrations may be a design consideration if this approach is used for public-supply systems. The ability to lower As concentrations in situ in high-pH ground water should have broad applicability because similar high-As ground water is present in many parts of the world.     

Lunar rock-rain: Diverse silicate impact-vapor condensates in an Apollo-14 regolith breccia

Apollo 14 regolith breccia 14076, long known to be uniquely endowed with high-alumina, silica-poor (HASP) material of evaporation-residue origin, has been found to contain a diverse suite of complementary condensates, dubbed GASP (gas-associated spheroidal precipitates). GASP occurs in two forms: as glassy or extremely fine grained quenched-melt spheroids, mostly less than 5 μm across; and as quenched textured clasts up to 200 μm across. In two of the clasts, origin by aggregation of spheroidal GASP is confirmed by the presence of relict spheroids. GASP is distinctively depleted in the same refractory major oxides that are characteristically enriched in HASP: Al₂O₃ and CaO. Among the larger GASP spheroids, Al₂O₃ is seldom >1 wt%; among the clasts, excluding two instances of apparent contamination by Na- and K-rich substrate-derived melt, bulk Al₂O₃ averages 0.3 wt%. Depletion of Al₂O₃ and CaO is also manifested by pyroxene compositions in some clasts; e.g., in the largest clast, En₈₂Wo_0.45 with 0.07 wt% Al₂O₃. Although GASP bulk compositions are nearly pure SiO₂ + MgO + FeO, they are nonetheless highly diverse. Spheroid compositions range in mg from 7 to 84 mol%, and in FeO/SiO₂ (weight ratio) from 0.002 to 0.67. Bulk compositions and textures of many GASP spheroids suggest that liquid immiscibility occurred prior to quenching; implying that these materials were, some time after condensation, at temperatures of ∼1680 °C. Textural evidence for immiscibility includes lobate boundaries between silicic and mafic domains, and a general tendency for quenched mafic silicates to be concentrated into a few limited patches rather than evenly dispersed. The parent melt of the largest clast’s pyroxene is inferred to have formed as a partial melt within the parent aggregation of GASP matter, compositionally near the pyroxene + cristobalite + melt eutectic and thus at ∼1500 °C. A few GASP spheroids show possible signs of in-flight collision-coalescence, but aggregation of the much larger clasts probably took place in mushy puddles on the lunar surface. Little mixing took place between these GASP puddles and the related HASP, probably because GASP condensation did not commence until after an intermediate stage during which, while neither net evaporation nor net condensation took place, expansion of the vapor cloud carried the eventual GASP matter well apart from the HASP. Considering the characteristic length-scale of lunar regolith mixing, the concentration of both GASP and HASP into this single unique regolith sample (14076) is most consistent with a parent crater size (diameter) of 10-100 km. I speculate that the 14076 regolith may have been unusually situated, almost directly uprange from an unusually oblique large impact. Mercurian analogs of the 14076 impact condensates may have significant implications for remote sensing.     

The Othris Ophiolite, Greece: A snapshot of subduction initiation at a mid-ocean ridge

The mantle section of the Tethyan-type Othris Ophiolite, Greece, records tectono-magmatic processes characteristic of both mid-ocean ridges and supra-subduction zones. The Othris Ophiolite is a remnant of the Jurassic Neotethys Ocean, which existed between Eurasia and Gondwanaland. Othris peridotites range from fertile plagioclase lherzolites to depleted harzburgites. Abundances of Al₂O₃ and CaO show well-defined inverse linear correlations with MgO, suggesting that the Othris peridotites formed as residua from variable degrees of partial melting.

Peridotites from the Fournos Kaïtsa and western Katáchloron sub-massifs are similar to abyssal peridotites and can be explained by a multistage model with some melting in the garnet stability field followed by moderate degrees of anhydrous near-fractional melting in the spinel stability field. In contrast, the peridotites from the Metalleio, Eretria, and eastern Katáchloron sub-massifs, and the Vourinos ophiolite are highly depleted and have extremely low concentrations of Al₂O₃ and heavy rare earth elements. These peridotites have enriched light REE contents compared to the middle REE. These residua are best modelled by hydrous melting due to a flux of slab-derived fluid to the mantle wedge during melting.

The occurrence of both styles of melting regimes within close spatial and temporal association in the same ophiolite is explained by intra-oceanic thrusting and forced subduction initiation at (or near) a mid-ocean ridge. Thus, the Othris Ophiolite, and probably Tethyan-type ophiolites in general, represent a transient phase of plate tectonic reorganisation rather than quasi-steady state plate tectonics.