A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space

River discharge is currently monitored by a diminishing network of gauges, which provide a spatially incomplete picture of global discharges. This study assimilated water level information derived from a fused satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image and digital terrain model (DTM) with simulations from a coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model to estimate discharge in an un‐gauged basin scenario. Assimilating water level measurements led to a 79% reduction in ensemble discharge uncertainty over the coupled hydrological hydrodynamic model alone. Measurement bias was evident, but the method still provided a means of improving estimates of discharge for high flows. The study demonstrates the potential of currently available synthetic aperture radar imagery to reduce discharge uncertainty in un‐gauged basins when combined with model simulations in a data assimilation framework, where sufficient topographic data are available. The work is timely because in the near future the launch of satellite radar missions will lead to a significant increase in the volume of data available for space‐borne discharge estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accessory mineral U–Th–Pb ages and <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar eruption chronology,and their bearing on rhyolitic magma evolution in the Pleistocene Coso volcanic field,California

We determined Ar/Ar eruption ages of eight extrusions from the Pleistocene Coso volcanic field, a long-lived series of small volume rhyolitic domes in eastern California. Combined with ion-microprobe dating of crystal ages of zircon and allanite from these lavas and from granophyre geothermal well cuttings, we were able to track the range of magma-production rates over the past 650 ka at Coso. In ≤230 ka rhyolites we find no evidence of protracted magma residence or recycled zircon (or allanite) from Pleistocene predecessors. A significant subset of zircon in the ~85 ka rhyolites yielded ages between ~100 and 200 Ma, requiring that generation of at least some rhyolites involves material from Mesozoic basement. Similar zircon xenocrysts are found in an ~200 ka granophyre. The new age constraints imply that magma evolution at Coso can occur rapidly as demonstrated by significant changes in rhyolite composition over short time intervals (≤10’s to 100’s ka). In conjunction with radioisotopic age constraints from other young silicic volcanic fields, dating of Coso rhyolites highlights the fact that at least some (and often the more voluminous) rhyolites are produced relatively rapidly, but that many small-volume rhyolites likely represent separation from long-lived mushy magma bodies.     

空间信息要素模型可视化的设计模式与应用

GIS系统的实现是一个相当复杂的过程,分层次模块化的方法被广泛采用,同时应用设计模式更加简单方便地重复使用成功的设计和体系结构,更有利于GIS系统的开发和重构。本文通过对描述地理信息系统空间信息模型中要素模型的几何体结构分析,充分运用和组合各种设计模式,在要素可视化设计和实现中,探讨要素组织采用组合模式与访问者模式相结合的形式,实现异构几何体的聚集访问;要素可视化的实现总体上采用合成模式与绘制采用策略模式相结合的形式,实现要素与绘制的有机分离及各种绘制形式的充分支持。这种结构的好处在于不但能很方便地实现Open GIS中有关要素几何体的抽象规范和相应的实现规范,而且能使系统结构清晰、模块分明,组织自然,有利于系统的开发、维护和扩展。     

Regeneration and utilization of nutrients during collapse of a <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mesodinium rubrum</Emphasis> red tide and its influence on phytoplankton species composition

High-biomass red tides occur frequently in some semi-enclosed bays of Hong Kong where ambient nutrients are not high enough to support such a high phytoplankton biomass. These high-biomass red tides release massive inorganic nutrients into local waters during their collapse. We hypothesized that the massive inorganic nutrients released from the collapse of red tides would fuel growth of other phytoplankton species. This could influence phytoplankton species composition. We tested the hypothesis using a red tide event caused by Mesodinium rubrum (M. rubrum) in a semi-enclosed bay, Port Shelter. The red tide patch had a cell density as high as 5.0×10⁵ cells L^?1, and high chlorophyll a (63.71 μg L^?1). Ambient inorganic nutrients (nitrate: \(\rm{NO}_3^-\), ammonium: \(\rm{NH}_4^+\), phosphate: \(\rm{PO}_4^{3-}\), silicate: \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\)) were low both in the red tide patch and the non-red-tide patch (clear waters outside the red tide patch). Nutrient addition experiments were conducted by adding all the inorganic nutrients to water samples from the two patches followed by incubation for 9 days. The results showed that the addition of inorganic nutrients did not sustain high M. rubrum cell density, which collapsed after day 1, and did not drive M. rubrum in the non-red-tide patch sample to the same high-cell density in the red tide patch sample. This confirmed that nutrients were not the driving factor for the formation of this red tide event, or for its collapse. The death of M. rubrum after day 1 released high concentrations of \(\rm{NO}_3^-\), \(\rm{PO}_4^{3-}\), \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\), \(\rm{NH}_4^+\), and urea. Bacterial abundance and heterotrophic activity increased, reaching the highest on day 3 or 4, and decreased as cell density of M. rubrum declined. The released nutrients stimulated growth of diatoms, such as Chaetoceros affinis var. circinalis, Thalassiothrix frauenfeldii, and Nitzschia sp., particularly with additions of \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\) treatments, and other species. These results demonstrated that initiation of M. rubrum red tides in the bay was not directly driven by nutrients. However, the massive inorganic nutrients released from the collapse of the red tide could induce a second bloom in low-ambient nutrient water, influencing phytoplankton species composition.     

Alteration of five organic compounds by glow discharge plasma and UV light under simulated Mars conditions

The Viking missions to Mars failed to detect any organic material in regolith samples. Since then, several removal mechanisms of organic material have been proposed. Two of these proposed methods are removal due to exposure to plasmas created in dust devils and exposure to UV irradiation. The experiments presented here were performed to identify similarities between the two potential removal mechanisms and to identify any compounds produced from these mechanisms that would have been difficult for the Viking instruments to detect. Five organic compounds, phenanthrene, octadecane, octadecanoic acid, decanophenone and benzoic acid, were exposed to a glow discharge plasma created in simulated martian atmospheres as might be present in dust devils, and to UV irradiation similar to that found at the surface of Mars. Glow discharge exposure was carried out in a chamber with 6.9 mbar pressure of a Mars like gas composed mostly of carbon dioxide. The plasma was characterized using emission spectroscopy and found to contain cations and excited neutral species including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen. UV irradiation experiments were performed in a Mars chamber which simulates the temperature, pressure, atmospheric composition, and UV fluence rates of equatorial Mars. The non-volatile residues left after each exposure were characterized by mass loss, infrared spectroscopy and high resolution mass spectrometry. Oxidized, higher molecular weight versions of the parent compounds containing carbonyl, hydroxyl and alkenyl functional groups were identified. The presence of these oxidized compounds suggests that searches for organic material in soils on Mars use instrumentation suitable for detection of compounds which contain the above functional groups. Discussions of possible reaction mechanisms are given.     

Updated results of a search for main-belt comets using the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey

The results of a search for main-belt comets using Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey data are updated. The remaining observations in the Very Wide segment of data, taken in the g’ or r’ filters, are visually inspected for cometary activity. The number of main-belt objects in the original and new data sets are 11,438 and 13,802, respectively, giving a total number of 25,240. This is the largest, and least biased, search for main-belt comets to date. One object is observed to show cometary activity, and a new upper limit for strongly active main-belt comets is derived to be 40 ± 18.     

On the long-term motion of Pluto

A modified periodic orbit of the third kind is introduced that is closely related to periodic orbits of the third kind as defined by Poincaré. It is shown that Pluto librates about the periodic orbit with apparent stability. This further explains the librational motion of the resonant argument of Pluto and the avoidance of a Pluto-Neptune close approach as found by Cohen and Hubbard and the long-term motion of Pluto and the librational motion of the perihelion as found by Williams and Benson. With libration about a periodic orbit, the numerical solution of Williams and Benson can be extrapolated to longer times in the past and future.     

THE CANYONLANDS METEORITE

The Canyonlands meteorite weighing 1,520 grams was found near the confluence of the Green and Colorado Rivers, Utah, near lat 38°11′N.; long 109°53′W. It is a shocked, brecciated H6 chondrite containing large black veins which do not differ in composition from the main chondritic mass. A black fusion crust remains on part of the meteorite.     

Solar Flare Prediction Using Advanced Feature Extraction, Machine Learning, and Feature Selection

Novel machine-learning and feature-selection algorithms have been developed to study: i) the flare-prediction-capability of magnetic feature (MF) properties generated by the recently developed Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART); ii) SMART’s MF properties that are most significantly related to flare occurrence. Spatiotemporal association algorithms are developed to associate MFs with flares from April 1996 to December 2010 in order to differentiate flaring and non-flaring MFs and enable the application of machine-learning and feature-selection algorithms. A machine-learning algorithm is applied to the associated datasets to determine the flare-prediction-capability of all 21 SMART MF properties. The prediction performance is assessed using standard forecast-verification measures and compared with the prediction measures of one of the standard technologies for flare-prediction that is also based on machine-learning: Automated Solar Activity Prediction (ASAP). The comparison shows that the combination of SMART MFs with machine-learning has the potential to achieve more accurate flare-prediction than ASAP. Feature-selection algorithms are then applied to determine the MF properties that are most related to flare occurrence. It is found that a reduced set of six MF properties can achieve a similar degree of prediction accuracy as the full set of 21 SMART MF properties.     

Long-term persistence of solar activity

The solar irradiante has been found to change by 0.1% over the recent solar cycle. A change of irradiante of about 0.5% is required to effect the Earth's climate. How frequently can a variation of this size be expected? We examine the question of the persistence of non-periodic variations in solar activity. The Hürst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series (Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969), is evaluated for the series of¹⁴ C data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD (Stuiver and Pearson, 1986). We find a constant Hürst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range of from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate,H ≈ 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process (Ruzmaikin et al., 1992), and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths. We conclude that the time period over which an irradiance change of 0.5% can be expected to occur is significantly shorter than that which would be expected for variations produced by a white-noise process. The full paper has been submitted to Solar Physics. Part of the research decribed here was carried out by JPL, Caltech under a contract with NASA.