Corrections for Wind-Speed Errors from Sodar and Lidar in Complex Terrain

The quality of lidar and sodar wind estimates is generally judged through comparisons with mast-mounted instruments, and the resulting regressions. Evaluation of the relative merits of lidars versus sodars is complicated by the fact that lidars are generally placed close to a mast whereas sodars are generally placed some distance from a mast so that acoustic reflections off the mast are reduced. This leads to the two technologies, lidar and sodar, not being compared in similar situations. Differences arising from the two geometries can be expected to be larger in complex terrain, where the wind regime can vary significantly spatially. The current work explores these differences in moderately complex terrain. Lidar–mast comparisons are performed with the lidar close to an 80 m mast, and sodar–mast comparisons performed with the sodar 300 m from the mast. Systematic variations in estimated wind speed are found to occur with height, consistent with predictions from a simple flow model. When the lidar was moved to the sodar location, further from the mast, there were significant changes in the estimated wind speeds and a reduction in correlation with the mast-based wind speeds, as expected. However, the correlation between collocated lidar and sodar winds was high. This finding emphasizes that any comparison of two remote sensing instruments needs to be through similar experiments, and that differences in accuracy often reported for the lidar and sodar technologies are likely to be contaminated due to poor comparison configurations. A method was devised to simulate the sodar being collocated with the mast, by using the lidar–sodar measurements and the lidar–mast measurements. It was found that there was then no statistically detectable difference between lidar–mast regressions and sodar–mast regressions for the particular lidar and sodar tested. Both remote sensing instruments were also found to be good estimators of Weibull parameters, as compared with those derived from mast data. The conclusion is that the sodar measured the winds above the sodar with a similar accuracy to the lidar measuring winds above the lidar.     

Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of Europe based on bottom up analysis: human health

This paper scopes a number of the health impacts of climate change in Europe (EU-27) quantitatively, using physical and monetary metrics. Temperature-related mortality effects, salmonellosis and coastal flooding-induced mental health impacts resulting from climate change are isolated from the effects of socio-economic change for the 2011–2040 and 2071–2100 time periods. The temperature-induced mortality effects of climate change include both positive and negative effects, for winter (cold) and summer (heat) effects, respectively, and have welfare costs (and benefits) of up to 100 billion Euro annually by the later time-period, though these are unevenly distributed across countries. The role of uncertainty in quantifying these effects is explored through sensitivity analysis on key parameters. This investigates climate model output, climate scenario, impact function, the existence and extent of acclimatisation, and the choice of physical and monetary metrics. While all of these lead to major differences in reported results, acclimatisation is particularly important in determining the size of the health impacts, and could influence the scale and form of public adaptation at the EU and national level. The welfare costs for salmonellosis from climate change are estimated at potentially several hundred million Euro annually by the period 2071–2100. Finally, a scoping assessment of the health costs of climate change from coastal flooding, focusing on mental health problems such as depression, are estimated at up to 1.5 billion Euro annually by the period 2071–2100.     

Effects of cloud types on cloud-radiation interaction over the Asian monsoon region

This paper quantifies the sensitivity of radiation budget quantities to different cloud types over the Asian monsoon region using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. Multiple regression was used to estimate the radiative effects of individual cloud type. It was observed that the regression performed better when the solution was constrained with clear sky fluxes, which is evident by an improvement in R ² statistics. The sensitivity coefficients calculated for the Asian monsoon region reveal that, while the LWCRCF and SWCRF will be most vulnerable to changes in cloud cover of deep convective clouds, NETCRF will be susceptible to changes in the nimbostratus clouds. Although the cloud radiative forcing of individual cloud types are found to be similar in sign to previous global findings, their magnitudes are found to vary. It is seen that cirrus clouds play an important role in governing the radiative behavior of this region.     

Experimental Measurements of Expected Mass Fraction in a Contaminant Plume

The sudden release of a quantity of gas into the atmospheric boundary layer produces a contaminant cloud. The expected mass fraction function provides a relatively simple measure of the contaminant concentration values found within the cloud and represents the ensemble-averaged fraction of the conserved release mass found at the different contaminant concentration intervals as the cloud evolves. The plume generated by a line source in grid turbulence is used to investigate the expected mass fraction function as it applies to scalar concentration values found on a typical line normal to the plume axis. Simultaneous particle image velocimetry and planar laser induced fluorescence are used to measure velocity and concentration fields, respectively. The measured expected mass fraction functions are observed to be approximately self-similar when concentration values are normalized by the centreline mean concentration. The moments of the expected mass fraction function are observed to be simply related to the centreline moments of the probability density function of scalar concentration. Arguments based on a source fluid, non-source fluid decomposition of the scalar probability density function are used to explain these observations. The results are compared with the theoretical and experimental results established for a line source of scalar in grid turbulence.     

Investigating a Hierarchy of Eulerian Closure Models for Scalar Transfer Inside Forested Canopies

Modelling the transfer of heat, water vapour, and CO₂ between the biosphere and the atmosphere is made difficult by the complex two-way interaction between leaves and their immediate microclimate. When simulating scalar sources and sinks inside canopies on seasonal, inter-annual, or forest development time scales, the so-called well-mixed assumption (WMA) of mean concentration (i.e. vertically constant inside the canopy but dynamically evolving in time) is often employed. The WMA eliminates the need to model how vegetation alters its immediate microclimate, which necessitates formulations that utilize turbulent transport theories. Here, two inter-related questions pertinent to the WMA for modelling scalar sources, sinks, and fluxes at seasonal to inter-annual time scales are explored: (1) if the WMA is to be replaced so as to resolve this two-way interaction, how detailed must the turbulent transport model be? And (2) what are the added predictive skills gained by resolving the two-way interaction vis-à-vis other uncertainties such as seasonal variations in physiological parameters. These two questions are addressed by simulating multi-year mean scalar concentration and eddy-covariance scalar flux measurements collected in a Loblolly pine (P. taeda L.) plantation near Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. using turbulent transport models ranging from K-theory (or first-order closure) to third-order closure schemes. The multi-layer model calculations with these closure schemes were contrasted with model calculations employing the WMA. These comparisons suggested that (i) among the three scalars, sensible heat flux predictions are most biased with respect to eddy-covariance measurements when using the WMA, (ii) first-order closure schemes are sufficient to reproduce the seasonal to inter-annual variations in scalar fluxes provided the canonical length scale of turbulence is properly specified, (iii) second-order closure models best agree with measured mean scalar concentration (and temperature) profiles inside the canopy as well as scalar fluxes above the canopy, (iv) there are no clear gains in predictive skills when using third-order closure schemes over their second-order closure counterparts. At inter-annual time scales, biases in modelled scalar fluxes incurred by using the WMA exceed those incurred when correcting for the seasonal amplitude in the maximum carboxylation capacity (V _{cmax, 25}) provided its mean value is unbiased. The role of local thermal stratification inside the canopy and possible computational simplifications in decoupling scalar transfer from the generation of the flow statistics are also discussed.

“The tree, tilting its leaves to capture bullets of light; inhaling, exhaling; its many thousand stomata breathing, creating the air”. Ruth Stone, 2002, In the Next Galaxy

     

Measurement of the baryonic acoustic oscillation scale in 21 cm intensity fluctuations during the reionization era

It has recently been suggested that the power spectrum of redshifted 21 cm fluctuations could be used to measure the scale of baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAOs) during the reionization era. The resulting measurements are potentially as precise as those offered by the next generation of galaxy redshift surveys at lower redshift. However, unlike galaxy redshift surveys, which in the linear regime are subject to a scale-independent galaxy bias, the growth of ionized regions during reionization is thought to introduce a strongly scale-dependent relationship between the 21 cm and mass power spectra. We use a seminumerical model for reionization to assess the impact of ionized regions on the precision and accuracy with which the BAO scale could be measured using redshifted 21 cm observations. For a model in which reionization is completed at   z ∼ 6  , we find that the constraints on the BAO scale are not systematically biased at   z ≳ 6.5  . In this scenario, and assuming the sensitivity attainable with a low-frequency array comprising 10 times the collecting area of the Murchison Widefield Array, the BAO scale could be measured to within 1.5 per cent in the range  6.5 ≲ z ≲ 7.5  .     

The relationship between star formation rate and radio synchrotron luminosity at 0 < z < 2

We probe the relationship between star formation rate (SFR) and radio synchrotron luminosity in galaxies at  0 < z < 2  within the northern Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic survey (SWIRE) fields, in order to investigate some of the assumptions that go into calculating the star formation history of the Universe from deep radio observations. We present new 610-MHz Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) observations of the European Large-Area ISO Survey-North 2 (ELAIS-N2) field, and using this data, along with previous GMRT surveys carried out in the ELAIS-N1 (North 1) and Lockman Hole regions, we construct a sample of galaxies which have redshift and SFR information available from the SWIRE survey. We test whether the local relationship between SFR and radio luminosity is applicable to   z = 2  galaxies, and look for evolution in this relationship with both redshift and SFR in order to examine whether the physical processes which lead to synchrotron radiation have remained the same since the peak of star formation in the Universe. We find that the local calibration between radio luminosity and star formation can be successfully applied to radio-selected high-redshift, high-SFR galaxies, although we identify a small number of sources where this may not be the case; these sources show evidence for inaccurate estimations of their SFR, but there may also be some contribution from physical effects such as the recent onset of starburst activity, or suppression of the radio luminosity within these galaxies.     

The changing interstellar medium of massive elliptical galaxies and cosmic evolution of radio galaxies and quasars

The recently discovered apparent dramatic expansion in the effective radii of massive elliptical galaxies from   z ≃ 2  to ≃0.1 has been interpreted in terms of either galaxy mergers or the rapid loss of cold gas due to active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback. In examining the latter case, we have quantified the extent of the expansion, which is uncertain observationally, in terms of the star formation parameters and time of the expulsion of the cold gas. In either case, the large global decrease in stellar density should translate into a major drop in the interstellar medium density and pressure with cosmic epoch. These cosmological changes are expected to have a major influence on the gas accretion mode, which will shift from 'cold' thin disc accretion at high redshifts towards 'hot' Bondi fed Advection Dominated Accretion Flow (ADAF) accretion at low redshifts. The decline of angular momentum inflow would then lead to a spin down of the black hole, for which we have calculated more precise time-scales; a value of about 0.2 Gyr is typical for a  10⁹ M_⊙  central black hole. These results have implications for the different cosmological evolutionary patterns found for the luminosity functions of powerful and weak radio galaxies.     

A multifrequency study of possible relic lobes in giant radio sources

We present low-frequency observations with the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope of three giant radio sources (GRSs: J0139+3957, J0200+4049 and J0807+7400) with relaxed diffuse lobes which show no hotspots and no evidence of jets. The largest of these three, J0200+4049, exhibits a depression in the centre of the western lobe, while J0139+3957 and J0807+7400 have been suggested earlier by Klein et al. and Lara et al., respectively, to be relic radio sources. We estimate the ages of the lobes. We also present Very Large Array observations of the core of J0807+7400, and determine the core radio spectra for all three sources. Although the radio cores suggest that the sources are currently active, we explore the possibility that the lobes in these sources are due to an earlier cycle of activity.