Extreme Earthquake and Earthquake Perceptibility Study in Greece and its Surrounding Area

The sample interval for the selection of extreme magnitudes plays an important part in the quality of Gumbel model fitting. A short sample interval can produce many observations, which is helpful in obtaining a reliably fitting model. However a short sample interval can bring many dummy ``observations', a condition which adversely biases the fitting. The short sample interval also increases the chance to introduce non-independent observations as well, which violates a basic requirement of the Gumbel model. On the other hand, a large time interval not only reduces the number of observations, but also enlarges the observation error. Thus, for Greece, the most suitable parameters of the third Gumbel extreme model are obtained by using a sample interval which produces minimum error. In consideration of the reliability of the seismic data, earthquakes with magnitude M 5.5 in Greece and its surrounding region after 1900 are used mainly in the present paper. In order to obtain well resolved contour maps with smooth changes a 2°× 2° cell with half-degree overlap strategy was used to scan the region. The most expected largest earthquake for the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. Likewise, the events with magnitude at a probability of 90\% of non-exceedance over the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. In parallel to this procedure we also analyze the 67 shallow seismic zones outlined by Papazachos and his colleagues and detail individual zone results where these are obtained. The most perceptible earthquake magnitude for the range of intensities I = {VI}, VII and VIII are also calculated. All results show that the areas around the Hellenic Arc and the Cephalonia Transform Fault for Greece have comparatively high frequency of destructive earthquakes accompanied by a high occurrence probability of moderate earthquakes (M 5.5).     

Coastal pollution hazards in southern California observed by SAR imagery: stormwater plumes, wastewater plumes, and natural hydrocarbon seeps

Stormwater runoff plumes, municipal wastewater plumes, and natural hydrocarbon seeps are important pollution hazards for the heavily populated Southern California Bight (SCB). Due to their small size, dynamic and episodic nature, these hazards are difficult to sample adequately using traditional in situ oceanographic methods. Complex coastal circulation and persistent cloud cover can further complicate detection and monitoring of these hazards. We use imagery from space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR), complemented by field measurements, to examine these hazards in the SCB. The hazards are detectable in SAR imagery because they deposit surfactants on the sea surface, smoothing capillary and small gravity waves to produce areas of reduced backscatter compared with the surrounding ocean. We suggest that high-resolution SAR, which obtains useful data regardless of darkness or cloud cover, could be an important observational tool for assessment and monitoring of coastal marine pollution hazards in the SCB and other urbanized coastal regions.     

Multiscale characterization of a heterogeneous aquifer using an ASR operation

Heterogeneity in the physical properties of an aquifer can significantly affect the viability of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) by reducing the recoverable proportion of low-salinity water where the ambient ground water is brackish or saline. This study investigated the relationship between knowledge of heterogeneity and predictions of solute transport and recovery efficiency by combining permeability and ASR-based tracer testing with modeling. Multiscale permeability testing of a sandy limestone aquifer at an ASR trial site showed that small-scale core data give lower-bound estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivity (K), intermediate-scale downhole flowmeter data offer valuable information on variations in K with depth, and large-scale pumping test data provide an integrated measure of the effective K that is useful to constrain ground water models. Chloride breakthrough and thermal profiling data measured during two cycles of ASR showed that the movement of injected water is predominantly within two stratigraphic layers identified from the flowmeter data. The behavior of the injectant was reasonably well simulated with a four-layer numerical model that required minimal calibration. Verification in the second cycle achieved acceptable results given the model's simplicity. Without accounting for the aquifer's layered structure, high precision could be achieved on either piezometer breakthrough or recovered water quality, but not both. This study demonstrates the merit of an integrated approach to characterizing aquifers targeted for ASR.     

Laboratory investigation of the effects of mineral size and concentration on the formation of oil-mineral aggregates

Controlled laboratory studies of the formation of oil-mineral aggregates (OMA) in seawater demonstrate that sediment concentration and sediment size are key variables for determining the quantity of oil droplets stabilised by OMA formation. Experiments with a single sediment size and a range of sediment concentrations show that as sediment concentration increases, the quantity of oil trapped in OMA increases abruptly. In experiments with a single sediment concentration and a range of sediment sizes, the quantity of oil trapped in OMA decreases as sediment size increases. These results provide direct support to the hypothesis that there is a critical sediment concentration for OMA formation. Below this concentration, stabilisation of oil droplets by OMA decreases rapidly, while above this concentration, stabilisation is extensive. The results also support simple geometric models of OMA formation that predict that the critical sediment mass concentration increases linearly with sediment particle diameter. These results will help to place quantitative constraint on predictions of where and when OMA formation will be a factor in the natural dispersal of oil accidentally spilled into the ocean.     

Temporary labour migration and sustainable post-conflict return in Sierra Leone

Economic and social development indicators suggest that the small West African state of Sierra Leone is among the poorest countries in the world. Sierra Leone’s economy and quality of life deteriorated rapidly during a decade of political instability and civil war in the 1990s, when many people fled their homes and abandoned their livelihoods due to the rebel insurgency. This paper examines the post-war reconstruction scenario in Sierra Leone and presents recent evidence from two rural communities in the Eastern Province that were badly affected by the conflict. The paper considers the links between the farming and diamond mining sectors, which, despite severe dislocation during the conflict period, have proved to be remarkably resilient. It is argued that seasonal labour mobility associated with this dual economy has not only continued to be a key ingredient in sustaining livelihood portfolios, but is actually an essential pre-condition for the creation of an enabling environment for sustainable post-conflict return.

A gas-poor planetesimal capture model for the formation of giant planet satellite systems

Assuming that an unknown mechanism (e.g., gas turbulence) removes most of the subnebula gas disk in a timescale shorter than that for satellite formation, we develop a model for the formation of regular (and possibly at least some of the irregular) satellites around giant planets in a gas-poor environment. In this model, which follows along the lines of the work of Safronov et al. [1986. Satellites. Univ. of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp. 89-116], heliocentric planetesimals collide within the planet's Hill sphere and generate a circumplanetary disk of prograde and retrograde satellitesimals extending as far out as ∼RH/2. At first, the net angular momentum of this proto-satellite swarm is small, and collisions among satellitesimals leads to loss of mass from the outer disk, and delivers mass to the inner disk (where regular satellites form) in a timescale ?¹⁰⁵ years. This mass loss may be offset by continued collisional capture of sufficiently small <1 km interlopers resulting from the disruption of planetesimals in the feeding zone of the giant planet. As the planet's feeding zone is cleared in a timescale ?¹⁰⁵ years, enough angular momentum may be delivered to the proto-satellite swarm to account for the angular momentum of the regular satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. This feeding timescale is also roughly consistent with the independent constraint that the Galilean satellites formed in a timescale of ¹⁰⁵-¹⁰⁶ years, which may be long enough to accommodate Callisto's partially differentiated state [Anderson et al., 1998. Science 280, 1573; Anderson et al., 2001. Icarus 153, 157-161]. In turn, this formation timescale can be used to provide plausible constraints on the surface density of solids in the satellitesimal disk (excluding satellite embryos for satellitesimals of size ∼1 km), which yields a total disk mass smaller than the mass of the regular satellites, and means that the satellites must form in several ∼10 collisional cycles. However, much more work will need to be conducted concerning the collisional evolution both of the circumplanetary satellitesimals and of the heliocentric planetesimals following giant planet formation before one can assess the significance of this agreement. Furthermore, for enough mass to be delivered to form the regular satellites in the required timescale one may need to rely on (unproven) mechanisms to replenish the feeding zone of the giant planet. We compare this model to the solids-enhanced minimum mass (SEMM) model of Mosqueira and Estrada [2003a. Icarus 163, 198-231; 2003b. Icarus 163, 232-255], and discuss its main consequences for Cassini observations of the saturnian satellite system.     

kSZ from patchy reionization: The view from the simulations

We present the first calculation of the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect due to the inhomogeneus reionization of the universe based on detailed large-scale radiative transfer simulations of reionization. The resulting sky power spectra peak at ℓ = 2000–8000 with maximum values of [ℓ(ℓ + 1)C_ℓ/(2π)]_max  4–7 × 10 ⁻¹³. The scale roughly corresponds to the typical ionized bubble sizes observed in our simulations, of 5–20 Mpc. The kSZ anisotropy signal from reionization dominates the primary CMB signal above ℓ = 3000. At large-scales the patchy kSZ signal depends only on the source efficiencies. It is higher when sources are more efficient at producing ionizing photons, since such sources produce larger ionized regions, on average, than less efficient sources. The introduction of sub-grid gas clumping in the radiative transfer simulations produce significantly more power at small-scales, but has little effect at large-scales. The patchy reionization kSZ signal is dominated by the post-reionization signal from fully-ionized gas, but the two contributions are of similar order at scales ℓ  3000 − 10⁴, indicating that the kSZ anisotropies from reionization are an important component of the total kSZ signal at these scales.     

A late glacial Antarctic climate teleconnection and variable Holocene seasonality at Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand

We present the first continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from the North Island of New Zealand (37°S) that spans the last 48.2?cal kyr. A tephra- and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry (carbon, nitrogen and sulphur concentrations and fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes). Variable erosional influx, biomass and benthic REDOX conditions are linked to changing effective precipitation and seasonality within three inferred broad intervals of climatic change: (1) the Last Glacial Coldest Phase (LGCP) of reduced effective precipitation and cooler temperatures, from 28.8 to 18.0?cal kyr BP, (2) the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT) of increasing effective precipitation and warmer conditions, from 18.0 to 10.2?cal?kyr?BP, and (3) a Holocene interval of high effective precipitation, beginning with a warm period of limited seasonality from 10.2?cal?kyr?BP and followed by increasing seasonality from 7.6?cal?kyr?BP. The LGCP and LGIT also contain millennial-scale climate events, including the coldest inferred glacial conditions during the LGCP from 27.8 to 26.0 and 22.0?C19.0?cal?kyr?BP, and a climate reversal in the LGIT associated with lower lake level, from 14.5 to 13.8?cal?kyr?BP, coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The onset of seasonal thermal stratification occurred at 5.7?cal?kyr?BP and was linked to natural eutrophication of Lake Pupuke, which produced enhanced organic sedimentation.