Fatigue reliability analysis of deep water rigid marine risers associated with Morison-type wave loading

This work presents a simple and efficient framework for the fatigue reliability assessment of a vertical top-tensioned rigid riser. The fatigue damage response is considered as a narrow-band Gaussian stationary random process with a zero mean for the short-term behavior of a riser. Non-linearity in a response associated with Morison-type wave loading is accounted for by using a factor, which is the ratio of expected damage according to a non-linear probability distribution to the expected damage according to a linear method of analysis. Long-term non-stationary response is obtained by summing up a large number of short-term stationary responses. Uncertainties associated with both the strength and stress parts of the limit state function are quantified by a lognormal distribution. A closed form reliability analysis is carried out, which is based on the limit state function formulated in terms of Miner’s cumulative damage rule. The results thus obtained are compared with the well-documented lognormal format of reliability analysis based on time to fatigue failure. The validity of using the lognormal hazard rate function in predicting the fatigue life is discussed. A Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used as a reliability assessment method. A simple algorithm is used to reduce the uncertainty associated with direct sampling at small probability of failure values and a small number of simulations. Simulation results are compared with closed form solutions. A worked example is included to show the practical riser design problem based on reliability analysis.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.     

The November 2002 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise,Réunion: tracking the pre-eruptive thermal evolution of magma using melt inclusions

The November 2002 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise in the Indian Ocean was typical of the activity of the volcano from 1999 to 2006 in terms of duration and volume of magma ejected. The first magma erupted was a basaltic liquid with a small proportion of olivine phenocrysts (Fo₈₁) that contain small numbers of melt inclusions. In subsequent flows, olivine crystals were more abundant and richer in Mg (Fo_83–84). These crystals contain numerous melt and fluid inclusions, healed fractures, and dislocation features such as kink bands. The major element composition of melt inclusions in this later olivine (Fo_83–84) is out of equilibrium with that of its host as a result of extensive post-entrapment crystallization and Fe²⁺ loss by diffusion during cooling. Melt inclusions in Fo₈₁ olivine are also chemically out of equilibrium with their hosts but to a lesser degree. Using olivine–melt geothermometry, we determined that melt inclusions in Fo₈₁ olivine were trapped at lower temperature (1,182 ± 1°C) than inclusions in Fo_83–84 olivine (1,199–1,227°C). This methodology was also used to estimate eruption temperatures. The November 2002 melt inclusion compositions suggest that they were at temperatures between 1,070°C and 1,133°C immediately before eruption and quenching. This relatively wide temperature range may reflect the fact that most of the melt inclusions were from olivine in lava samples and therefore likely underwent minor but variable amounts of post-eruptive crystallization and Fe²⁺ loss by diffusion due to their relatively slow cooling on the surface. In contrast, melt inclusions in tephra samples from past major eruptions yielded a narrower range of higher eruption temperatures (1,163–1,181°C). The melt inclusion data presented here and in earlier publications are consistent with a model of magma recharge from depth during major eruptions, followed by storage, cooling, and crystallization at shallow levels prior to expulsion during events similar in magnitude to the relatively small November 2002 eruption.     

The relationship between reference canopy conductance and simplified hydraulic architecture

Terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by vascular plants that form a mosaic of hydraulic conduits to water movement from the soil to the atmosphere. Together with canopy leaf area, canopy stomatal conductance regulates plant water use and thereby photosynthesis and growth. Although stomatal conductance is coordinated with plant hydraulic conductance, governing relationships across species has not yet been formulated at a practical level that can be employed in large-scale models. Here, combinations of published conductance measurements obtained with several methodologies across boreal to tropical climates were used to explore relationships between canopy conductance rates and hydraulic constraints. A parsimonious hydraulic model requiring sapwood-to-leaf area ratio and canopy height generated acceptable agreement with measurements across a range of biomes (r²=0.75)$(r^2=0.75)$. The results suggest that, at long time scales, the functional convergence among ecosystems in the relationship between water-use and hydraulic architecture eclipses inter-specific variation in physiology and anatomy of the transport system. Prognostic applicability of this model requires independent knowledge of sapwood-to-leaf area. In this study, we did not find a strong relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and physical or climatic variables that are readily determinable at coarse scales, though the results suggest that climate may have a mediating influence on the relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and height. Within temperate forests, canopy height alone explained a large amount of the variance in reference canopy conductance (r²=0.68)$(r^2=0.68)$ and this relationship may be more immediately applicable in the terrestrial ecosystem models.     

Development of FBMINC model for particle diffusion in fluids

An accurate particle tracking method using FBMINC （new fractional Brownian motion） is outlined. It generates non-Fickian diffusion rather than Fickian diffusion as traditional particle tracking model does. The FBMINC model is based on fractional Brownian motion （fl3m） which is generalization of regular Brownian motion. The two models of fBms （FBM model and FBMINC model） were explored and the differences of the two models are compared from the three aspects： the standard deviation of each step, the small memory and the effect of the number of particles in the cloud. The results show the FBMINC model is a better model as it produces more accurate statistics. The effect of simple shear dispersion for both Brownian and fBm was investigated. The power law scaling of fBm shear dispersion was correctly identified. In addition, a scaling coettieient was found numerically. The FBMINC model is then used for producing both superdiffusive and subdiffusive particle paths, therefore, the non-Fickian diffusion of soil particle clouds can be modelled. The particle clouds represent soil contaminant are released in an idealised coastal bay and the fBm particle tracking method is used for simulation the particle cloud spreading in the bay. There is a noticeable increase in the spreading rate of the cloud. In addition, owning to the spreading rate of the cloud, a noticeable part of it has escaped the bay area and transported downstream. The variation of the Hurst exponent can lead to an area of the flow being affected by a contaminant cloud which is not picked up by the regular Brownian motion models. The purpose of this paper is to bring soil transport engineers a new angle on soil particle transport research in fluids. Using FBM1NC particle tracking model allows more flexibility in simulation of diffusion in soil contaminant spread in coastal bay or ocean surface.     

Real-time seismology for the 05/12/2008 Wenchuan earthquake of China: A retrospective view

The devastating 05/12/2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M_w7.9) in Sichuan Province of China showed very few precursory phenomena and occurred on a fault system once assigned to be of moderate long term seismic risk. Given the existing coverage of seismograph stations in Sichuan Province, real-time seismology could have been effective in avoiding some earthquake damage and helping post-earthquake emergency response. In a retrospective view, we demonstrated that the epicenter can be located with 20 km accuracy using just two broadband stations with three-component, which takes only about 10 s after the onset of the earthquake. Initial magnitude is estimated to be M7 with the Tc measurement over first 4 seconds of P waves. Better magnitude estimate can be obtained within 2 min by modeling Pnl waves for stations about 500 km away where the S waveforms are clipped. The rupture area is well revealed by teleseismically-recorded >M5 early aftershocks within two hours after the mainshock. Within a few hours, teleseismic body waves were inverted to derive a more detailed rupture process and the finite fault model can be readily used to calculate ground motions, thus providing vital information for rescue efforts in the case where no real-time strong motion records are available. Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-116-1) and National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2006BAC03B00)     

Nitrogen uptake and denitrification in restored and unrestored streams in urban Maryland, USA

There is growing interest in rates of nitrate uptake and denitrification in restored streams to better understand the effects of restoration on nitrogen processing. This study quantified nitrate uptake in two restored and two unrestored streams in Baltimore, Maryland, USA using nitrate additions, denitrification enzyme assays, and a ¹⁵N isotope tracer addition in one of the urban restored streams, Minebank Run. Restoration included either incorporation of stormwater ponds below a storm drain and catch basins to attenuate flow or hydrologic “reconnection” of a stream channel to its floodplain. Stream restoration was conducted for restoring aging sanitary and bridge infrastructure and introducing some stormwater management in watersheds developed prior to current regulations. Denitrification potential in sediments was variable across streams, whereas nitrate uptake length appeared to be significantly correlated to surface water velocity, which was low in the restored streams during summer baseflow conditions. Uptake length of NO₃ ⁻–N in Minebank Run estimated by ¹⁵N tracer addition was 556 m. Whole stream denitrification rates in Minebank Run were 153 mg NO₃ ⁻–N m⁻² day⁻¹, and approximately 40% of the daily load of nitrate was estimated to be removed via denitrification over a distance of 220.5 m in a stream reach designed to be hydrologically “connected” to its floodplain. Increased hydrologic residence time in Minebank Run during baseflow likely influenced rates of whole stream denitrification, suggesting that hydrologic residence time may be a key factor influencing N uptake and denitrification. Restoration approaches that increase hydrologic “connectivity” with hyporheic sediments and increase hydrologic residence time may be useful for stimulating denitrification. More work is necessary, however, to examine changes in denitrification rates in restored streams across different seasons, variable N loads, and in response to the “flashy” hydrologic flow conditions during storms common in urban streams.     

Spatial Variability of Soil-Gas Concentrations near and beneath a Building Overlying Shallow Petroleum Hydrocarbon–Impacted Soils

Data requirements for assessing the significance of the soil vapor intrusion pathway are evolving, and the collection and interpretation of subslab and near-slab soil-gas samples are under discussion. The potential for different assessment paradigms for aerobically biodegradable and recalcitrant chemicals is also frequently debated. In this work, the soil-gas distribution beneath and around a slab-on-grade building overlying shallow (0.5 to >1.5 m below ground surface) petroleum hydrocarbon–impacted coarse alluvial soils was studied. The study spanned about 12 months, including the sampling of soil-gas hydrocarbon and oxygen concentrations, subslab soil vs. building pressure differentials and included weather conditions. Three-dimensional soil-gas concentration "snapshots" using samples from 79 soil-gas sampling points are presented here. Significant spatial variability was observed with hydrocarbon and oxygen concentrations ranging from about <0.01 to 200 mg/L and 0 to 21% v/v, respectively. The presence of oxygen and the depth to petroleum-impacted soils appeared to be the dominant factors in controlling the soil-gas distribution; the depletion of hydrocarbons over short lateral and vertical distances (<2 m) was observed in the well-oxygenated regions. Composition data suggest preferential biodegradation of lighter compounds at some points, as reflected in the ratio of the masses of chemicals eluting on the gas chromatography between methane and pentane (C1 and C5) and all others after pentane (>C5).     

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973–2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained—to varying degrees—by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this “composite ShakeMap” with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page (). T. I. Allen and M. G. Hearne—contracted through Synergetics Incorporated.