ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.     

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

The D-CIXS X-ray mapping spectrometer on SMART-1

The D-CIXS Compact X-ray Spectrometer will provide high quality spectroscopic mapping of the Moon, the primary science target of the ESA SMART-1 mission. D-CIXS consists of a high throughput spectrometer, which will perform spatially localised X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. It will also carry a solar monitor, to provide the direct calibration needed to produce a global map of absolute lunar elemental abundances, the first time this has been done. Thus it will achieve ground breaking science within a resource envelope far smaller than previously thought possible for this type of instrument, by exploiting two new technologies, swept charge devices and micro-structure collimators. The new technology does not require cold running, with its associated overheads to the spacecraft. At the same time it will demonstrate a radically novel approach to building a type of instrument essential for the BepiColombo mission and potential future planetary science targets.     

Mezen Bay—a key area for understanding Weichselian glaciations in northern Russia

Sediment successions in coastal cliffs around Mezen Bay, southeastern White Sea, record an unusually detailed history of former glaciations, interstadial marine and fluvial events from the Weichselian. A regional glaciation model for the Weichselian is based on new data from the Mezen Bay area and previously published data from adjacent areas. Following the Mikulinian (Eemian) interglacial a shelf‐centred glaciation in the Kara Sea is reflected in proglacial conditions at 100–90 ka. A local ice‐cap over the Timan ridge existed between 75 and 65 ka. Renewed glaciation in the Kara Sea spread southwestwards around 60 ka only, interrupted by a marine inundation, before it advanced to its maximum position at about 55–50 ka. After a prolonged ice‐free period, the Scandinavian ice‐sheet invaded the area from the west and terminated east of Mezen Bay about 17 ka. The previously published evidence of a large ice‐dammed lake in the central Arkhangelsk region, Lake Komi, finds no support in this study. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

X-ray spectral evolution of low-mass X-ray binary GX 349+2

We present the results of a systematic investigation of spectral evolution in the Z source GX 349+2, using data obtained during 1998 with the Proportional Counter Array (PCA) on-board the RXTE satellite. The source traced a extended normal branch (NB) and flaring branch (FB) in the colour–colour diagram (CD) and the hardness-intensity diagram (HID) during these observations. The spectra at different positions of the Z-track were best fitted by a model consisting of a disc blackbody and a Comptonized spectrum. A broad (Gaussian) iron line at ∼6.7 keV is also required to improve the fit. The spectral parameters showed a systematic and significant variation with the position along the Z-track. The evolution in spectral parameters is discussed in view of the increasing mass accretion rate scenario, proposed to explain the motion of Z sources in the CD and the HID.     

On the most general accurate solutions for Buchdahl's fluid spheres

The most general accurate solutions for the Buchdhal fluid sphere were obtained and matched with the Schwarzchild's exterior solution at the pressure free interface. Various parameters of the solutions were so adjusted that the energy density, pressure and temperature were positive and decreasing away from the centre, and the velocity of sound was less than unity throughout the spheroid model. Using this procedure, the maximum mass of the fluid sphere with a surface density of2 × 10¹⁴gm cm^-3 was determined to be 3.82MΘ and 4.57 MΘ for strong and weak energy conditions respectively. PACS number: 0402, 0402J, 0440D, 95301 This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.     

STUDY ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NDVI PROFILE AND THE GROWING STATUS OF CROPS

Daily and ten-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) of crops were retrieved from meteorological statellite NOAA AVHRR images ,The temporal variations of the NDVI were analyzed during the whole growing season,and thus the principle of the interaction between NDIV profile and the growing status of crops was discussed,As a case in point,the relationship between integral NDVI and winter wheat yield of Henan Province in 1999 had been analyzed.By putting integral NDVI values of 60 sample counties into the winter wheat yield-integral NDVI coordination,scattering map was plotted. It demonstrated that integral NDVI had a close relation with winter wheat yield.These relation could be described with linear,cubic polynomial ,and exponential regression,and the cubic polynomial regression was the best way,In general ,NDVI reflects growing status of green vegetation ,so crop monitoring and crop yield estimation could be realized by using remote sensing technique on the basis of time serial NDVI data together with agriculture calendars.     

Photometry of pluto in the last decade and before: evidence for volatile transport?

Photometric observations of Pluto in the BVR filter system were obtained in 1999 and in 1990-1993, and observations in the 0.89-μm methane absorption band were obtained in 2000. Our 1999 observations yield lightcurve amplitudes of 0.30 ± 0.01, 0.26 ± 0.01, and 0.21 ± 0.02 and geometric albedos of 0.44 ± 0.04, 0.52 ± 0.03, and 0.58 ± 0.02 in the B, V, and R filters, respectively. The low-albedo hemisphere of Pluto is slightly redder than the higher albedo hemisphere. A comparison of our results and those from previous epochs shows that the lightcurve of Pluto changes substantially through time. We developed a model that fully accounts for changes in the lightcurve caused by changes in the viewing geometry between the Earth, Pluto, and the Sun. We find that the observed changes in the amplitude of Pluto’s lightcurve can be explained by viewing geometry rather than by volatile transport. We also discovered a measurable decrease since 1992 of ∼0.03 magnitudes in the amplitude of Pluto’s lightcurve, as the model predicts. Pluto’s geometric albedo does not appear to be currently increasing, as our model predicts, although given the uncertainties in both the model and the measurements of geometric albedo, this result is not firm evidence for volatile transport. The maximum of methane-absorption lightcurve occurs near the minimum of the BVR lightcurves. This result suggests that methane is more abundant in the brightest regions of Pluto. Pluto’s phase coefficient exhibits a color dependence, ranging from 0.037 ± 0.01 in the B filter to 0.032 ± 0.01 in the R filter. Pluto’s phase curve is most like those of the bright, recently resurfaced satellites Triton and Europa. Although Pluto shows no strong evidence for volatile transport now (unlike Triton), it is important to continue to observe Pluto as it moves away from perihelion.