Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.     

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

As land use change (LUC), including deforestation, is a patchy process, estimating the impact of LUC on carbon emissions requires spatially accurate underlying data on biomass distribution and change. The methods currently adopted to estimate the spatial variation of above- and below-ground biomass in tropical forests, in particular the Brazilian Amazon, are usually based on remote sensing analyses coupled with field datasets, which tend to be relatively scarce and often limited in their spatial distribution. There are notable differences among the resulting biomass maps found in the literature. These differences subsequently result in relatively high uncertainties in the carbon emissions calculated from land use change, and have a larger impact when biomass maps are coded into biomass classes referring to specific ranges of biomass values. In this paper we analyze the differences among recently-published biomass maps of the Amazon region, including the official information used by the Brazilian government for its communication to the United Nation Framework on Climate Change Convention of the United Nations. The estimated average pre-deforestation biomass in the four maps, for the areas of the Amazon region that had been deforested during the 1990–2009 period, varied from 205?±?32 Mg ha^?1 during 1990–1999, to 216?±?31 Mg ha^?1 during 2000–2009. The biomass values of the deforested areas in 2011 were between 7 and 24 % higher than for the average deforested areas during 1990–1999, suggesting that although there was variation in the mean value, deforestation was tending to occur in increasingly carbon-dense areas, with consequences for carbon emissions. To summarize, our key findings were: (i) the current maps of Amazonian biomass show substantial variation in both total biomass and its spatial distribution; (ii) carbon emissions estimates from deforestation are highly dependent on the spatial distribution of biomass as determined by any single biomass map, and on the deforestation process itself; (iii) future deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is likely to affect forests with higher biomass than those deforested in the past, resulting in smaller reductions in carbon dioxide emissions than expected purely from the recent reductions in deforestation rates; and (iv) the current official estimate of carbon emissions from Amazonian deforestation is probably overestimated, because the recent loss of higher-biomass forests has not been taken into account.     

The ilmenite/titano-magnetite assemblage: kinetics of re-equilibration

Compositions of coexisting ilmenite and titano-magnetite commonly have been used to establish the conditions of formation for igneous and metamorphic rocks (Buddington-Lindsley geothermometer/oxybarometer). Temperatures so determined for some rocks are lower than might be expected for magmatic crystallization. These low temperatures are the result of re-equilibration of the Fe-Ti oxides during slow cooling. This process is one in which titano-magnetites are oxidized and ilmenites are reduced upon cooling along a buffer curve or in the presence of a fluid of constant composition. Textural studies indicate that the reduction of the ilmenite-hematite phase may be the slower reaction consequently, the rate-controlling step of the re-equilibration.The kinetics of the reduction reactions in the two-phase region between the joins for the ilmenite-hematite and magnetite-ulvöspinel solid solution series were studied by thermogravimetric analysis at controlledf_O2. With experiments conducted near the Ni/NiO and QFM buffers, annealed ilmenite(ss) synthetic charges were reduced isothermally. The temperature range for the experiments was 900–1250°C, with total gas-flow rates of 0.35 and 1.0 cm/s. Kinetic data were collected by measuring the weight change during each experiment as a function of time. Additionally, a cooling-rate (0.5°C/hr) experiment was conducted near the QFM buffer from 1150 to 985°C starting with an ilmenite-saturated spinel phase.At 1200°C and 0.35 cm/s flow rate, the reaction mechanism is an interfacial process where mass transport of the reacting gases is the rate-controlling step. In isothermal experiments at 1100°C and lower, diffusion of reactants through a solid product layer was the controlling mechanism. The activation energy for this diffusion process is 59±6 kcal/mole. Significant enhancement of diffusion occurs along grain boundaries.Although the individual phases may re-equilibrate internally upon cooling, the Fe-Ti contents must remain unchanged for proper use of this mineral indicator-i.e. no external re-equilibration. It is imperative that the kinetics of the situation be appreciated. These preliminary kinetic experiments indicate that extreme caution must be exercised when applying this ilmenite/titano-magnetite geothermometer/oxybarometer. These phases may only truly “quench” in the parameters of formation in the case of certain hypabyssal and extrusive occurrences     

Role of reservoir regulation and groundwater feedback in a simulated ground-soil-vegetation continuum: A long-term regional scale analysis

The regional terrestrial water cycle is strongly altered by human activities. Among them, reservoir regulation is a way to spatially and temporally allocate water resources in a basin for multi-purposes. However, it is still not sufficiently understood how reservoir regulation modifies the regional terrestrial- and subsequently, the atmospheric water cycle. To address this question, the representation of reservoir regulation into the terrestrial component of fully coupled regional Earth system models is required. In this study, an existing process-based reservoir network module is implemented into NOAH-HMS, that is, the terrestrial component of an atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system, namely, the WRF-HMS. It allows to quantitatively differentiate role of reservoir regulation and of groundwater feedback in a simulated ground-soil-vegetation continuum. Our study focuses on the Poyang Lake basin, where the largest freshwater lake of China and reservoirs of different sizes are located. As compared to streamflow observations, the newly extended NOAH-HMS slightly improves the streamflow and streamflow duration curves simulation for the Poyang Lake basin for the period 1979–1986. The inclusion of reservoir regulation leads to major changes in the simulated groundwater recharges and evaporation from reservoirs at local scale, but has minor effects on the simulated soil moisture and surface runoff at basin scale. The performed groundwater feedback sensitivity analysis shows that the strength of the groundwater feedback is not altered by the consideration of reservoir regulation. Furthermore, both reservoir regulation and groundwater feedback modify the partitioning of the simulated evapotranspiration, thus affecting the atmospheric water cycle in the Poyang Lake region. This finding motivates future research with our extended fully coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system by the community.     

Soil erosion and sediment transport in Tanzania: Part I – sediment source tracing in three neighbouring river catchments

Water bodies in Tanzania are experiencing increased siltation, which is threatening water quality, ecosystem health, and livelihood security in the region. This phenomenon is caused by increasing rates of upstream soil erosion and downstream sediment transport. However, a lack of knowledge on the contributions from different catchment zones, land-use types, and dominant erosion processes, to the transported sediment is undermining the mitigation of soil degradation at the source of the problem. In this context, complementary sediment source tracing techniques were applied in three Tanzanian river systems to further the understanding of the complex dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport in the region. Analysis of the geochemical and biochemical fingerprints revealed a highly complex and variable soil system that could be grouped in distinct classes. These soil classes were unmixed against riverine sediment fingerprints using the Bayesian MixSIAR model, yielding proportionate source contributions for each catchment. This sediment source tracing indicated that hillslope erosion on the open rangelands and maize croplands in the mid-zone contributed over 75% of the transported sediment load in all three river systems during the sampling time-period. By integrating geochemical and biochemical fingerprints in sediment source tracing techniques, this study demonstrated links between land use, soil erosion and downstream sediment transport in Tanzania. This evidence can guide land managers in designing targeted interventions that safeguard both soil health and water quality.     

Geochemical modeling of magma mixing and magma reservoir volumes during early episodes of Kīlauea Volcano’s Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō eruption

Geochemical modeling of magma mixing allows for evaluation of volumes of magma storage reservoirs and magma plumbing configurations. A new analytical expression is derived for a simple two-component box-mixing model describing the proportions of mixing components in erupted lavas as a function of time. Four versions of this model are applied to a mixing trend spanning episodes 3–31 of Kilauea Volcano’s Puu Oo eruption, each testing different constraints on magma reservoir input and output fluxes. Unknown parameters (e.g., magma reservoir influx rate, initial reservoir volume) are optimized for each model using a non-linear least squares technique to fit model trends to geochemical time-series data. The modeled mixing trend closely reproduces the observed compositional trend. The two models that match measured lava effusion rates have constant magma input and output fluxes and suggest a large pre-mixing magma reservoir (46±2 and 49±1 million m³), with little or no volume change over time. This volume is much larger than a previous estimate for the shallow, dike-shaped magma reservoir under the Puu Oo vent, which grew from ∼3 to ∼10–12 million m³. These volumetric differences are interpreted as indicating that mixing occurred first in a larger, deeper reservoir before the magma was injected into the overlying smaller reservoir. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available at and is accessible for authorized users.     

A CO2-rich gas trigger of explosive paroxysms at Stromboli basaltic volcano,Italy

In addition to rhythmic slug-driven Strombolian activity, Stromboli volcano occasionally produces discrete explosive paroxysms (2 per year on average for the most frequent ones) that constitute a major hazard and whose origin remains poorly elucidated. Partial extrusion of the volatile-rich feeding basalt as aphyric pumice during these events has led to consider their triggering by the fast ascent of primitive magma blobs from possibly great depth. Here I examine and discuss the alternative hypothesis that most of the paroxysms could be triggered and driven by the fast upraise of CO₂-rich gas pockets generated by bubble foam growth and collapse in the sub-volcano plumbing system. Data for the SO₂ and CO₂ crater plume emissions are used to show that Stromboli's feeding magma may originally contain as much as 2 wt.% of carbon dioxide and early coexists with an abundant CO₂-rich gas phase with high CO₂/SO₂ molar ratio (≥ 60 at 10 km depth below the vents, compared to ～ 7 in time-averaged crater emissions). Pressure-related modelling indicates that the time-averaged crater gas composition and output are well accounted for by closed system decompression of the basalt–gas mixture until the volcano–crust interface (～ 3 km depth), followed by open degassing and crystallization in the volcano conduits. However, both the low viscosity and high vesicularity of the basaltic magma permit bubble segregation and bubble foam growth at deep sill-like feeder discontinuities and at shallower physical boundaries (such as the volcano–crust interface) where the gas-rich aphyric basalt interacts with the unerupted crystal-rich and viscous magma drained back from the volcano conduits. Gas pressure build-up and bubble foam collapse at these boundaries will intermittently trigger the sudden upraise of CO₂-rich gas blobs that constitute the main driving force of the paroxysms. Deeper-sourced gas blobs, driving the most powerful explosions, will be the richest in CO₂ and have highest CO₂/SO₂ ratios. This mechanism is shown to account well for the dynamic, seismic and petrologic features of Stromboli's paroxysms and, hence, to provide a potential alternative interpretation for their genesis and their forecasting. Enhanced bubble foam leakage prior to a paroxysm, or foam emptying in several steps, should lead indeed to precursory upstream of CO₂-rich gas and increasing CO₂/SO₂ ratio in crater plume emissions. The recent detection of such signals prior to two explosions in December 2006 and March 2007 strongly supports this expectation and the model proposed in this study.     

Assessment of the ecological quality status of soft-bottoms in Reunion Island (tropical Southwest Indian Ocean) using AZTI marine biotic indices

The ability of the two synthetic marine biotic indices, AMBI and M-AMBI, to account for changes in the ecological quality of coastal soft bottoms of Reunion Island according to disturbances was assessed from macrobenthic samples collected in five sectors between 1994 and 2004. Samples were collected under non-perturbed conditions and at two sites subjected to heavy organic enrichment. Both indices are based on a classification of macrofauna into ecological groups (EG), and their transfer to tropical waters required some adaptations. These indices proved efficient in detecting a degradation of habitat quality. Their use resulted in the classification of all sites sampled between 1996 and 1998 as "good" or "high". M-AMBI nevertheless tended to result in the attribution of a slightly worse ecological quality status than AMBI. Together with an update of the EG species list for the Indian Ocean area, our results support the extension of both indices for the assessment of tropical soft bottoms.