Assessment of observational networks with the Representer Matrix Spectra method—application to a 3D coastal model of the Bay of Biscay

The development of coastal ocean modeling in the recent years has allowed an improved representation of the associated complex physics. Such models have become more realistic, to the point that they can now be used to design observation networks in coastal areas, with the idea that a “good” network is a network that controls model state error. To test this ability without performing data assimilation, we set up a technique called Representer Matrix Spectra (RMS) technique that combines the model state and observation error covariance matrices into a single scaled representer matrix. Examination of the spectrum and the eigenvectors of that matrix informs us on which model state error modes a network can detect and constrain amidst the observation error background. We applied our technique to a 3D coastal model in the Bay of Biscay, with a focus on mesoscale activity, and tested the performance of various altimetry networks and an in situ array deployment strategy. It appears that a single nadir altimeter is not efficient enough at capturing coastal mesoscale physics, while a wide swath altimeter would do a much better job. Testing various local in situ array configurations confirms that adding a current meter to a vertical temperature measurement array improves the detection of secondary variability modes, while shifting the array higher on the shelf break would obviously enhance the model constraint along the coast. The RMS technique is easily set up and used as a “black box,” but the utility of its results is maximized by previous knowledge of model state error physics. The technique provides both quantitative (eigenvalues) and qualitative (eigenvectors) tools to study and compare various network options. The qualitative approach is essential to discard possibly inconsistent modes.     

Sensitivity-guided reduction of parametric dimensionality for multi-objective calibration of watershed models

Problem complexity for watershed model calibration is heavily dependent on the number of parameters that can be identified during model calibration. This study investigates the use of global sensitivity analysis as a screening tool to reduce the parametric dimensionality of multi-objective hydrological model calibration problems while maximizing the information extracted from hydrological response data. This study shows that by expanding calibration problem formulations beyond traditional, statistical error metrics to also include metrics that capture indices or signatures of hydrological function, it is possible to reduce the complexity of calibration while maintaining high quality model predictions. The sensitivity-guided calibration is demonstrated using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) conceptual rainfall–runoff model of moderate complexity (i.e., up to 14 freely varying parameters). Using both statistical and hydrological metrics, optimization results demonstrate that parameters controlling at least 20% of the model output variance (through individual effects and interactions) should be included in the calibration process. This threshold generally yields 30–40% reductions in the number of SAC-SMA parameters requiring calibration – setting the others to a priori values – while maintaining high quality predictions. Two parameters are recommended to be calibrated in all cases (percent impervious area and lower zone tension water storage), three parameters are needed in drier watersheds (additional impervious area, riparian zone vegetation, and percent of percolation going to tension storage), and the lower zone parameters are crucial unless the watershed is very dry. Overall, this study demonstrates that a coupled, multi-objective sensitivity and calibration analysis better captures differences between watersheds during model calibration and serves to maximize the value of available watershed response time series. These contributions are particularly important given the ongoing development of more complex integrated models, which will require new tools to address the growing discrepancy between the information content of hydrological data and the number of model parameters that have to be estimated.     

横向非均匀地球负荷问题的CLFE有限元算法的有效性

本文设计了三个数值算例分别模拟径向分层黏弹地球对二阶球谐负荷、均厚圆盘负荷和全球末次冰期真实冰负荷的响应.利用耦合位扰动Laplace方程的三维有限元法(CLFE),计算出地球表面的位移、大地水准面的变化、冰后海平面变化和这些量的现今变化速率,并将其结果与传统谱方法的结果进行对比.结果表明,两种方法的结果总体上表现出良好的一致性,因此,CLFE方法被证实是正确的、有效的、能被用于研究地幔横向非均匀性的影响.值得注意的是,新的方法完全没有横向非均匀小扰动假设的限制.     

Caldera rim collapse: A hidden volcanic hazard

Following the emblematic flank collapse of Mount St Helens in 1981, numerous models of flank sliding have been proposed. These models have allowed to largely improve the understanding of mechanisms involved in such landslides, which represent a tremendous risk for populations living around volcanoes. In this article, a new mode of landslide formation, related to buried calderas, is described. The model emphasizes the paramount importance of the hidden ring fault that, even when the caldera is buried, still remains a plane of weakness in the core of the edifice. Under certain conditions, this plane of weakness becomes activated as the upper part of a pre-existing critical slip surface and is used in the emplacement of huge landslides which travel downslope at a very high velocity. A natural example is taken from Piton de la Fournaise Volcano (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean). It reveals that the primary cause triggering caldera rim collapse is partial unbuttressing of the flank of the volcano. In the natural example, this occurs through regressive erosion that excavates deep canyon in the direction of the buried caldera but other mechanisms may exist. On account of the large volumes of material involved in caldera rim collapse as well as their long runout distances, such a volcanic hazard should be taken into account on every volcano where buried calderas are suspected.     

Hypoxia impairs embryo development and survival in black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri)

Coastal environments are threatened by the increasing frequency, extent and severity of hypoxic events. Hypoxia affects vast areas around the world and often causes fish kills, reduced abundance, altered distribution, low benthic biomass and declines in fisheries. In Australia, many fisheries are based on sparid fishes and in the southern states black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri) is important to both the recreational and commercial sectors. This species completes its entire life cycle in estuaries and annual recruitment is highly variable and very likely influenced by environmental conditions during the spawning season.In a laboratory-based experiment, fertilised black bream eggs (embryos) were exposed to five different levels of dissolved oxygen (DO). The DO levels were maintained in small test wells using nitrogen gas in a novel chamber design. Embryo development was assessed over a 2-day period and hatched larvae were observed until Day 2 post-hatch. Significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in embryonic development and survival as a function of DO level. In severely hypoxic conditions (30% saturation) survival to 1 day was reduced and no hatching occurred. In moderately hypoxic conditions (45–55%S), both precocious and delayed hatching was observed and hatch rates were reduced, whilst the number of hatched larvae with deformities increased, resulting in reduced larval lengths. No larvae survived to Day 2 post-hatch when held in hypoxic conditions (<55%S). This study demonstrates the detrimental effect that severe hypoxia can have on the early development of black bream which could result in reduced recruitment and lowered abundance. Other species that share similar early life histories may also be at risk.     

A Rapid Drawdown Event Related to Quarry Operations in a Dolomite Aquifer

Two active quarries are mining stone from the Silurian dolomite aquifer in Waukesha County in southeastern Wisconsin. The village in which the quarries are located uses local zoning to control the depth of mining and to institute a long-term water level monitoring program and well guarantee/one with the quarry owners. Water levels dropped as much as 40 feet in at least 24 residential wells surrounding the quarries over a period of a few hours to days. The rapid decline in head was caused by a single boring drilled lo a depth of 75 feel he low the floor of one quarry. The borehole penetrated a localized fracture zone under confined artesian head. Water levels recovered to previous static levels within nine days after grouting the borehole. The rapid drawdown event demonstrates the potential impact of mining in fractured aquifers. The apparent complete recovery of the aquifer demonstrates that quick response can sometimes restore an aquifer. However, the potential for blasting into a similar zone illustrates the need for a well-thought-out aquifer monitoring program and emergency response plan. The experience of the village is a good example of managing conflicting uses of a finite resource and collecting baseline data needed to make informed decisions.     

Cloud Structure And Composition Of Jupiter's Atmosphere

The understanding of the composition and cloudstructure has advanced greatly in the last few yearsand in particular was greatly improved upon followingthe highly successful Pioneer and Voyager missions tothat planet. Recently the Galileo spacecraft has goneinto orbit about Jupiter and its remote sensinginstruments, including the Near Infrared MappingSpectrometer (NIMS) and the Solid State Imager (SSI),have yielded exciting new details of the spatial andvertical structure of the Jovian clouds and volatiles.At the same time Galileo's entry probe has made thefirst ever in situ measurements of conditions inthe atmosphere. Recent ground-based observations havealso added to the body of evidence from whichconditions in the Jovian atmosphere may be inferred.This paper aims to review the current understanding ofthe composition and cloud structure of Jupiter'satmosphere in the light of the new Galileo results andrecent ground-based, and earth-orbiting telescopeobservations.     

Mineralogy of the sources for magnetic anomalies on Mars

Abstract— Recent discovery of intense magnetic anomalies on Mars, which are due to remanent magnetization, requires some explanation for the possible minerals responsible for the anomalous signature. Thermoremanent magnetization (TRM) in single domain (SD) and multidomain (MD) sized magnetite, hematite, and pyrrhotite, all potential minerals, are considered. The intensity of TRM (in 0.05 mT) is in descending order: SD‐sized magnetite, SD‐sized pyrrhotite, MD‐sized hematite, MD‐sized pyrrhotite, MD‐sized magnetite, SD‐sized hematite. The TRM intensity is <4% of the saturation isothermal remanence (SIRM) for all but the MD hematite, which may have >50% of the SIRM. Each of these minerals and estimated concentrations of magnetic remanence carriers (assumed to be titanomagnetite) in the Shergotty‐Nakhla‐Chassigny martian meteorites are used in a thin sheet approximation model to reveal the concentration of each mineral required for the generation of an observed magnetic anomaly (1500 nT at 100 km altitude) assuming TRM acquisition in a 0.05 mT magnetic field.