SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites, dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.     

Late Cretaceous rift-related upwelling and melting of the Trindade starting mantle plume head beneath western Brazil

High mantle potential temperatures and local extension, associated with the Late-Cretaceous impact of the Trindade mantle plume, produced substantial widespread and voluminous magmatism around the northern half of the Paraná sedimentary basin. Our previous studies have shown that, above the central and eastern portions of the postulated impact zone where lithosphere extension is minimal, heat conducted by the plume caused large-scale melting of the more fusible parts of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle beneath the margin of the São Francisco craton and the surrounding Brasilía mobile belt. Here we combine geochemical data and field evidence from the Poxoreu Igneous Province, western Brazil to show how more intense lithospheric extension above the western margin of the postulated impact zone permitted greater upwelling and melting of the Trindade plume than further east. Laser ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age determinations indicate that rift-related basaltic magmas of the Poxoreu Igneous Province were emplaced at ? 84 Ma. Our detailed geochemical study of the mafic magmas shows that the parental melts underwent polybaric crystal fractionation within the crust prior to final emplacement. Furthermore, some magmas (quartz-normative) appear to have assimilated upper crust whereas others (nepheline- and hypersthene-normative) appear to have been unaffected by open-system crustal magma chamber processes. Incompatible trace element ratios (e.g. chondrite-normalised La/Nb?=?1) and isotopic ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.704 and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.51274) of the Hy-normative basalts resemble those of oceanic islands (OIB). We therefore propose that these “OIB-like” magmas were predominantly derived from convecting-mantle-source melts (i.e. Trindade mantle plume). Inverse modelling of rare-earth element (REE) abundances suggests that the initial melts were predominantly generated within the depth range of ?80–100 km, in mantle with a potential temperature of ?1500 °C.     

Snow measurement techniques for land-surface-atmosphere exchange studies in boreal landscapes

Summary  Snow has been studied widely in hydrology for many decades whereas recent meteorological interest in snow is caused by increased emphasis on high latitudes and wintertime in climate-change research as well as by the need to improve weather-forecast models during these conditions. Ground-based measurements of snow properties are needed both to improve understanding of surface-atmosphere exchange processes and to provide ground truth to new remote-sensing algorithms. This justifies a review of techniques to measure snow in combination with establishment of criteria for the suitability of the methods for process studies. This review assesses the state-of-art in ground-based snow-measurement techniques in the end of the 1990s in view of their accuracy, time resolution, possibility to automate, practicality and suitability in different terrain. Methods for snow-pack water equivalent, depth, density, growth, quality, liquid-water content and water leaving the snow pack are reviewed. Synoptic snow measurements in Fennoscandian countries are widely varying and there is no single standard on which process-related studies can build. A long-term, continuous monitoring of mass and energy properties of a snow cover requires a combination of point-measurement techniques. Areally representative values of snow properties can be achieved through a combination of automatically collected point data with repeated manual, areally covering measurements, remote-sensing data and digital elevation models, preferably in a GIS framework. Received August 27, 1999