Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.     

Effects of hydrocarbon contamination on a free living marine nematode community: results from microcosm experiments

Anthropogenic inputs of crude and refined petroleum hydrocarbons into the sea require knowledge of the effects of these contaminants on the receiving assemblages of organisms. A microcosm experiment was carried out to study the influence of diesel on a free living nematode community of a Tunisian lagoon. Sediments were contaminated by diesel that ranged in concentration from 0.5 to 20 mg diesel kg⁻¹ dry weight (dw), and effects were examined after 90 days. Gradual changes in community structure were revealed depending on the quantity of diesel administrated. In the medium (1 mg diesel kg⁻¹ and 5 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw)) and high (10 mg diesel kg⁻¹, 15 mg diesel kg⁻¹ and 20 mg kg⁻¹ (dw)) treated microcosms, most univariate measures, including diversity and species richness, decreased significantly with increasing level of diesel contamination whereas nematode assemblage from the low treated microcosm (0.5 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw)) remained unaffected. Results from multivariate analyses of the species abundance data demonstrated that responses of nematode species to the diesel treatments were varied: Chaetonema sp. was eliminated at all doses tested and seemed to be intolerant species to diesel contamination; Pomponema sp. and Oncholaimus campylocercoïdes were significantly affected at all diesel contamination levels but they were not eliminated, these species were categorized as “diesel-sensitive”; Hypodontolaimus colesi, Daptonema trabeculosum and Daptonema fallax which significantly increased respectively at 0.5, 1 and 5 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw) concentrations and appeared to be “opportunistic” species at these doses whereas Marylynnia stekhoveni which increased at all high doses (10, 15 and 20 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw)) seemed to be a “diesel-resistant” species.     

Molluscs as multidisciplinary models in environment toxicology

The primary goal of this paper is to stimulate discussion and promote the use of mollusc models and multidisciplinary research approaches in the field of environmental toxicology. Molluscs are effective models because they are ubiquitous, have highly conserved control and regulatory pathways that are often homologous to vertebrate systems, and are extremely sensitive to anthropogenic inputs. We have attempted to provide initial references as an avenue into the literature and as a means for researchers to expand their thoughts to regions outside of their own area of expertise. The authors are particularly interested in developing multidisciplinary international collaborative efforts.     

Investigation of natural and anthropogenic hydrocarbon inputs in sediments using geochemical markers. I. Santos, SP--Brazil

A study on the inputs of organic matter to marine sediments of Santos Bay and Estuary, located in southeastern S?o Paulo State, Brazil, is presented here. The following geochemical markers were identified and quantified: aliphatic hydrocarbons (normal and isoprenoid alkanes), petroleum biomarkers, linear alkylbenzenes (LABs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Sediment samples, collected at 15 sites in the bay and surrounding channels, were extracted and analyzed by gas chromatography with flame ionization and mass spectrometer detectors. Total concentrations varied from 0.17 to 107.80 microg g(-1) for aliphatics, from 47.2 to 2560.1 ng g(-1) for petroleum biomarkers, from 16.9 to 430.6 ng g(-1) for LABs and from 79.6 to 15389.1 ng g(-1) for PAHs. Anthropogenic contributions were apparent, indicating the influences of the Cubatao industrial complex, sewage outfalls along the area, the waste deposit of Santos city and storage facilities for petroleum and derivatives, based on the higher concentrations of geochemical markers detected.     

Henry Darcy in his own words

A recently published English translation of the Les Fontaines publiques de la ville de Dijon 1 provides access to Henry Darcy's own words on the importance of water for public sanitation and on questions engineers face in building water supply systems. Written near the end of Darcy's life, the book is a compendium of the water knowledge he had gained over decades and his opinions on these topics reveal his personality. In the 1840s, Darcy built a water supply system to provide water to 120 street fountains for domestic purposes, street washing and firefighting. Surrounded by poverty, Darcy insisted on free water for the poor and on sharing the spring water with towns located along the aqueduct that brought it to Dijon. In the preface to the book, Darcy introduces his experiment on water flow through sand with the modest words “to my knowledge, no one has experimentally demonstrated the laws of water flow through sand.” This article provides a sampling of the book's insights into the personality of this remarkable man.

The evolution of the high‐elevated depocenters of the northern Sierras Pampeanas (ca. 28˚ SL), Argentine broken foreland,South‐Central Andes: the Pipanaco Basin

The Pipanaco Basin, in the southern margin of the Andean Puna plateau at ca. 28°SL, is one of the largest and highest intermontane basins within the northernmost Argentine broken foreland. With a surface elevation >1000 m above sea level, this basin represents a strategic location to understand the subsidence and subsequent uplift history of high‐elevation depositional surfaces within the distal Andean foreland. However, the stratigraphic record of the Pipanaco Basin is almost entirely within the subsurface, and no geophysical surveys have been conducted in the region. A high‐resolution gravity study has been designed to understand the subsurface basin geometry. This study, together with stratigraphic correlations and flexural and backstripping analysis, suggests that the region was dominated by a regional subsidence episode of ca. 2 km during the Miocene‐Pliocene, followed by basement thrusting and ca. 1–1.5 km of sediment filling within restricted intermontane basin between the Pliocene‐Pleistocene. Based on the present‐day position of the basement top as well as the Neogene‐Present sediment thicknesses across the Sierras Pampeanas, which show slight variations along strike, sediment aggradation is not the most suitable process to account for the increase in the topographic level of the high‐elevation, close‐drainage basins of Argentina. The close correlation between the depth to basement and the mean surface elevations recorded in different swaths indicates that deep‐seated geodynamic process affected the northern Sierras Pampeanas. Seismic tomography, as well as a preliminary comparison between the isostatic and seismic Moho, suggests a buoyant lithosphere beneath the northern Sierras Pampeanas, which might have driven the long‐wavelength rise of this part of the broken foreland after the major phase of deposition in these Andean basins.