利用步长模拟对青藏高原涡度方差测量法的质量评价

利用痕迹模拟方法对青藏高原两处地方涡度方差的测量数据进行了质量分析，揭示了其空间和时间结构。分析表明高达1/3的测量没有达到必要的数据正确假设。尽管这样对潜热、CO2、动量通量的测量基本通过测试，可以适用于基础研究，但是经常发现特定的风矢量违背基本假设条件。感热通量的测量允许使用不间断的连续测量法，然而由于局地地形的影响少量评估指数未能合理解释，但能够指示出组织结构及用于导出边界层中尺度流体模型假说。     

Mid-Holocene to present-day evolution of the Indian monsoon in transient global simulations

The low-frequency evolution of Indian rainfall mean-state and associated interannual-to-decadal variability is discussed for the last 6000 years from a multi-configuration ensemble of fully coupled global transient simulations. This period is marked by a shift of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) distribution towards drier conditions, including extremes, and a contraction of the rainy season. The drying is larger in simulations with higher horizontal resolution of the atmosphere and revised land surface hydrology. Vegetation–climate interactions and the way runoff is routed to ocean modulate the timing of the monsoon onset but have negligible effects on the evolution of seasonal rainfall amounts in our modeling framework in which carbon cycling is always active. This drying trend is accompanied by changes in ISMR interannual-to-decadal variability decreasing over north and south India but increasing over central India (20°–25° N). The ISMR interannual-to-decadal variability is decomposed into six physically consistent regimes using a clustering technique to further characterize its changes and associated teleconnections. From 6 to 3.8 kyr bp, the century-to-century modulations in the frequency of occurrence associated to the regimes are asynchronous between the simulations. Orbitally-driven trends can only be detected for two regimes over the whole 6–0 kyr bp period. These two regimes reflect increased influence of ENSO on both ISMR and Indian Ocean Dipole as the inter-hemispheric energy gradient weakens. Severe long-term droughts are also shown to be a combination of long-term drying and internally generated low-frequency modulations of the interannual-to-decadal variability.

     

Aquifer Storage Recovery (ASR) of chlorinated municipal drinking water in a confined aquifer

About 1.02 × 10⁶ m³ of chlorinated municipal drinking water was injected into a confined aquifer, 94–137 m below Roseville, California, between December 2005 and April 2006. The water was stored in the aquifer for 438 days, and 2.64 × 10⁶ m³ of water were extracted between July 2007 and February 2008. On the basis of Cl⁻ data, 35% of the injected water was recovered and 65% of the injected water and associated disinfection by-products (DBPs) remained in the aquifer at the end of extraction. About 46.3 kg of total trihalomethanes (TTHM) entered the aquifer with the injected water and 37.6 kg of TTHM were extracted. As much as 44 kg of TTHMs remained in the aquifer at the end of extraction because of incomplete recovery of injected water and formation of THMs within the aquifer by reactions with free-chlorine in the injected water. Well-bore velocity log data collected from the Aquifer Storage Recovery (ASR) well show as much as 60% of the injected water entered the aquifer through a 9 m thick, high-permeability layer within the confined aquifer near the top of the screened interval. Model simulations of ground-water flow near the ASR well indicate that (1) aquifer heterogeneity allowed injected water to move rapidly through the aquifer to nearby monitoring wells, (2) aquifer heterogeneity caused injected water to move further than expected assuming uniform aquifer properties, and (3) physical clogging of high-permeability layers is the probable cause for the observed change in the distribution of borehole flow. Aquifer heterogeneity also enhanced mixing of native anoxic ground water with oxic injected water, promoting removal of THMs primarily through sorption. A 3 to 4-fold reduction in TTHM concentrations was observed in the furthest monitoring well 427 m downgradient from the ASR well, and similar magnitude reductions were observed in depth-dependent water samples collected from the upper part of the screened interval in the ASR well near the end of the extraction phase. Haloacetic acids (HAAs) were completely sorbed or degraded within 10 months of injection.     

Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China,India, Nepal

Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region.     

Stellar Populations in Bulges of Spiral Galaxies

We present a few results of a work in progress tackling the radial spectroscopic properties of bulges of spiral galaxies. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Exoplanet atmospheres with EChO: spectral retrievals using EChOSim

We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory mission concept for constraining the atmospheric properties of hot and warm gas giants and super Earths. Synthetic primary and secondary transit spectra for a range of planets are passed through EChOSim [13] to obtain the expected level of noise for different observational scenarios; these are then used as inputs for the NEMESIS atmospheric retrieval code and the retrieved atmospheric properties (temperature structure, composition and cloud properties) compared with the known input values, following the method of [1]. To correctly retrieve the temperature structure and composition of the atmosphere to within 2 σ, we find that we require: a single transit or eclipse of a hot Jupiter orbiting a sun-like (G2) star at 35 pc to constrain the terminator and dayside atmospheres; 20 transits or eclipses of a warm Jupiter orbiting a similar star; 10 transits/eclipses of a hot Neptune orbiting an M dwarf at 6 pc; and 30 transits or eclipses of a GJ1214b-like planet.     

Scheduling the EChO survey with known exoplanets

The Exoplanet Characterization Observatory (EChO) is a concept of a dedicated space telescope optimized for low-resolution transit and occultation spectroscopy to study the exoplanet diversity through the composition of their atmospheres. The scope of this paper is to answer the following question: Can we schedule a nominal EChO mission, with targets known today (in mid 2013), given the science requirements, realistic performances and operational constraints? We examine this issue from the point of view of duration of the mission and the scheduling restrictions with a sample of exoplanet systems known nowadays. We choose different scheduling algorithms taking into account the science and operational constraints and we verified that it is fairly straightforward to schedule a mission scenario over the lifetime of EChO compliant with the science requirements. We identified agility as a critical constraint that reduces significantly the efficiency of the survey. We conclude that even with known targets today the EChO science objectives can be reached in the 4.5 years duration of the mission. We also show that it is possible to use gaps between exoplanet observations, to fit the required calibration observations, data downlinks and station keeping operations or even to observe more exoplanet targets to be discovered in the coming years.     

EChOSim: The Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory software simulator

EChOSim is the end-to-end time-domain simulator of the Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory (EChO) space mission. EChOSim has been developed to assess the capability of the EChO mission concept to detect and characterise the atmospheres of transiting exoplanets. Here we discuss the details of the EChOSim implementation and describe the models used to represent the instrument and to simulate the detection. Software simulators have assumed a central role in the design of new instrumentation and in assessing the level of systematics affecting the measurements of existing experiments. Thanks to its high modularity, EChOSim can simulate basic aspects of several existing and proposed spectrometers including instruments on the Hubble Space Telescope and Spitzer, ground-based and balloon-borne experiments. A discussion of different uses of EChOSim is given, including examples of simulations performed to assess the EChO mission.     

Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.