Definition of the Spatial Propagator and Implications for Magnetic Field Properties

Solar Physics - We study a quiet-Sun blowout jet which was observed on 2014 May 16 by the instruments on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We find the twin CME as jet-like and bubble-like...     

Trophic significance of the kelp Laminaria digitata (Lamour.) for the associated food web: a between-sites comparison

This study aimed at establishing the trophic significance of the kelp Laminaria digitata for consumers inhabiting two rocky shores of Northern Brittany (France), displaying contrasted ecological conditions. The general trophic structure did not vary between these two sites, with a wide diversity of filter-feeders and predators, and only 14% of the species sampled belonging to the grazers' trophic group. The diversity of food sources fueling the food web appeared also similar. The food webs comprised four trophic levels and the prevalence of omnivory appeared relatively low compared to previous studies in the same area. Conversely, to the food web structure, which did not differ, the biochemical composition of L. digitata differed between the two sites, and was correlated to a larger diversity of grazers feeding on this kelp in sheltered conditions. This indicated that the spatial variability occurring in the nutritive value of L. digitata is likely to deeply affect the functioning of kelp-associated food webs. The contribution of L. digitata-derived organic matter to the diet of filter-feeders inhabiting these two environments was assessed using the mixing model Isosource, which showed the higher contribution of kelp matter in sheltered conditions. These results highlight the spatial variability that may occur in the functioning of kelp-associated food webs. Moreover, this suggests that hydrodynamics is likely to control the availability of kelp-derived organic matter to local filter-feeders, probably through an increase of detritus export in exposed areas.     

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.     

Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical forcing: a new paradigm for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation

The main goal of this paper is to shed additional light on the reciprocal dynamical linkages between mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate and the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal. While our analysis confirms that ENSO is a dominant source of interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere, it is also suggested here that subtropical dipole variability in both the Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans triggered by Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude variability may also provide a controlling influence on ENSO in the equatorial Pacific. This subtropical forcing operates through various coupled air?Csea feedbacks involving the propagation of subtropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the deep tropics of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from boreal winter to boreal spring and a subsequent dynamical atmospheric response to these SST anomalies linking the three tropical basins at the beginning of the boreal spring. This atmospheric response is characterized by a significant weakening of the equatorial Atlantic and Indian Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This weakened ITCZ forces an equatorial ??cold Kelvin wave?? response in the middle to upper troposphere that extends eastward from the heat sink regions into the western Pacific. By modulating the vertical temperature gradient and the stability of the atmosphere over the equatorial western Pacific Ocean, this Kelvin wave response promotes persistent zonal wind and convective anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific, which may trigger El Ni?o onset at the end of the boreal winter. These different processes explain why South Atlantic and Indian subtropical dipole time series indices are highly significant precursors of the Ni?o34 SST index several months in advance before the El Ni?o onset in the equatorial Pacific. This study illustrates that the atmospheric internal variability in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere may significantly influence ENSO variability. However, this surprising relationship is observed only during recent decades, after the so-called 1976/1977 climate regime shift, suggesting a possible linkage with global warming or decadal fluctuations of the climate system.     

Intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region

The SST-precipitation relationship in the intraseasonal variability (ISV) over the Asian monsoon region is examined using recent high quality satellite data and simulations from a state of the art coupled model, the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 demonstrates high skill in reproducing the spatial distribution of the observed climatological mean summer monsoon precipitation along with its interannual variability, a task which has been a conundrum for many recent climate coupled models. The model also exhibits reasonable skill in simulating coherent northward propagating monsoon intraseasonal anomalies including SST and precipitation, which are generally consistent with observed ISV characteristics. Results from the observations and the model establish the existence of spatial variability in the atmospheric convective response to SST anomalies, over the Asian monsoon domain on intraseasonal timescales. The response is fast over the Arabian Sea, where precipitation lags SST by ~5 days; whereas it is slow over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, with a lag of ~12 days. The intraseasonal SST anomalies result in a similar atmospheric response across the basins, which consists of a destabilization of the bottom of the atmospheric column, as observed from the equivalent potential temperature anomalies near the surface. However, the presence of a relatively strong surface convergence over the Arabian Sea, due to the presence of a strong zonal gradient in SST, which accelerates the upward motion of the moist air, results in a relatively faster response in terms of the local precipitation anomalies over the Arabian Sea than over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. With respect to the observations, the ocean–atmosphere coupling is well simulated in the model, though with an overestimation of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, leading to an exaggerated SST-precipitation relationship. A detailed examination points to a systematic bias in the thickness of the mixed layer of the ocean model, which needs to be rectified. A too shallow (deep) mixed layer enhances (suppress) the amplitude of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, thereby amplifying (lessening) the ISV and the active-break phases of the monsoon in the model.     

Mid-Holocene to present-day evolution of the Indian monsoon in transient global simulations

The low-frequency evolution of Indian rainfall mean-state and associated interannual-to-decadal variability is discussed for the last 6000 years from a multi-configuration ensemble of fully coupled global transient simulations. This period is marked by a shift of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) distribution towards drier conditions, including extremes, and a contraction of the rainy season. The drying is larger in simulations with higher horizontal resolution of the atmosphere and revised land surface hydrology. Vegetation–climate interactions and the way runoff is routed to ocean modulate the timing of the monsoon onset but have negligible effects on the evolution of seasonal rainfall amounts in our modeling framework in which carbon cycling is always active. This drying trend is accompanied by changes in ISMR interannual-to-decadal variability decreasing over north and south India but increasing over central India (20°–25° N). The ISMR interannual-to-decadal variability is decomposed into six physically consistent regimes using a clustering technique to further characterize its changes and associated teleconnections. From 6 to 3.8 kyr bp, the century-to-century modulations in the frequency of occurrence associated to the regimes are asynchronous between the simulations. Orbitally-driven trends can only be detected for two regimes over the whole 6–0 kyr bp period. These two regimes reflect increased influence of ENSO on both ISMR and Indian Ocean Dipole as the inter-hemispheric energy gradient weakens. Severe long-term droughts are also shown to be a combination of long-term drying and internally generated low-frequency modulations of the interannual-to-decadal variability.

     

Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979–2006) and climate simulations

Using both empirical and numerical ensemble approaches this study focuses on the Mediterranean/West African relationship in northern summer. Statistical analyses utilize skin temperature, sea surface temperature, in situ and satellite rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observations and reanalyzed data winds and specific humidity on isobaric surfaces. Numerical investigations are based on a large set of sensitivity experiments performed on four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM): ARPEGE-Climat3, ECHAM4, LMDZ4 and UCLA7.3. Model outputs are compared to observations, discussed model by model and with an ensemble (multi-model) approach. As in previous studies the anomalous Mediterranean warm events are associated with specific impacts over the African monsoon region, i.e., a more intense monsoon, enhanced flux convergence and ascendances around the ITCZ, a strengthening of low level moisture advection and a more northward location of ascending motion in West Africa. The results show also new features (1) thermal variability observed in the two Mediterranean basins has unalike impacts, i.e. the western Mediterranean covaries with convection in Gulf of Guinea, while the eastern Mediterranean can be interpreted as Sahelian thermal-forcing; (2) although observations show symmetry between warming and cooling, modelling evidences only support the eastern warming influence; (3) anomalous East warm situations are associated with a more northward migration of the monsoon system accompanied by enhanced southwertely flow and weakened northeasterly climatological wind; (4) the multi-model response shows that anomalous East warm surface temperatures generate an enhancement of the overturning circulation in low and high levels, an increase in TEJ (Tropical Eeasterly Jet) and a decrease in AEJ (African Eeasterly Jet).