On Mid-Term Periodicities in Cosmic Rays

The contributions of quasi-periodic variations of cosmic rays for T>27 days at the primary energies to which neutron monitors are sensitive have a rather complicated character. They were reported in several papers (e.g. Valdés-Galicia, Perez-Enriquez, and Otaola, 1996; Mavromichalaki et al., 2003; Kudela et al., 2002; Caballero and Valdés-Galicia, 2001) from individual stations and for various time intervals covered. The data archive of several neutron monitor stations developed within the NMDB project () now involves long time series of measurements at neutron monitors situated at different geomagnetic cut-off rigidity positions and at different altitudes. It is updated continuously. Using the daily averages of cosmic-ray intensity at three selected stations within NMDB: i) the temporal evolution of the selected quasi-periodicities, especially those of approximately 1.7 yr, 150 days and 26 – 32 days respectively, until 2008 are reviewed, ii) the similarities of the spectra are checked and iii) the occurrence of quasi-periodicities with those observed in solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic activities (Moussas et al., 2005; Richardson and Cane, 2005) as well as in energetic particles below the atmospheric threshold are discussed (Laurenza et al., 2009).     

The First Ground-Level Enhancement of Solar Cycle 24 on 17 May 2012 and Its Real-Time Detection

Ground-level enhancements (GLEs) are defined as sudden increases in the recorded intensity of cosmic-ray particles, usually by neutron monitors (NMs). In this work we present a time-shifting analysis (TSA) for the first arriving particles that were detected at Earth by NMs. We also present an automated real-time GLE alert that has been developed and is operating via the Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB), which successfully identified the 17 May 2012 event, designated as GLE71. We discuss the time evolution of the real-time GLE alert that was issued for GLE71 and present the event onset-time for NMs that contributed to this GLE alert based on their archived data. A comparison with their real-time time-stamp was made to illustrate the necessity for high-resolution data (e.g. 1-min time resolution) made available at every minute. The first results on the propagation of relativistic protons that have been recorded by NMs, as inferred by the TSA, imply that they are most probably accelerated by the coronal-mass-ejection-driven shock. Furthermore, the successful usage of NM data and the corresponding achievement of issuing a timely GLE alert are discussed.     

Coronal Mass Ejections and Non-recurrent Forbush Decreases

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts (interplanetary coronal mass ejections, ICMEs) are responsible for large solar energetic particle events and severe geomagnetic storms. They can modulate the intensity of Galactic cosmic rays, resulting in non-recurrent Forbush decreases (FDs). We investigate the connection between CME manifestations and FDs. We used specially processed data from the worldwide neutron monitor network to pinpoint the characteristics of the recorded FDs together with CME-related data from the detailed online catalog based upon the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) data. We report on the correlations of the FD magnitude to the CME initial speed, the ICME transit speed, and the maximum solar wind speed. Comparisons between the features of CMEs (mass, width, velocity) and the characteristics of FDs are also discussed. FD features for halo, partial halo, and non-halo CMEs are presented and discussed.     

Evaluation of the profile and the resistance method for estimation of surface fluxes of momentum,sensible and latent heat

Summary Hourly lysimetric and micrometeorological data taken over a grass surface at the Meteorological Research Unit, Cardington U.K. have been analysed. A temperature difference and measurements of wind speed at only one height, combined with an independently estimated effective roughness length allowed sensible heat and momentum fluxes determination by the profile method on an hourly basis. The estimates are compared with direct measurements of sensible heat and friction velocity obtained by the eddy correlation method. The sensible and latent heat fluxes are also modelled by the resistance method. Equations based on the Monin—Obukhov similarity theory are used to account for stability effects through various forms of parameterization Aerodynamic and surface resistances, necessary for the Penman—Monteith equation are calculated from routinely measured meteorological data. The profile method for estimation of sensible heat flux and friction velocity is found to work excellently on the discussed daytime experimental data which correspond mainly to near neutral or slightly unstable conditions.Surface latent and sensible heat fluxes can also be described very well by the resistance method. A slightly better estimate of the sensible heat flux is achieved when stability corrections are taken into account. On the contrary Penman-Monteith equation for estimating latent heat flux is insensitive to adjustments for atmospheric stability.The comparison of the various methods leads to the establishment of empirical relationships which correlate various quantities such as soil heat flux, resistances, evapotranspiration etc. to routinely measured meteorological data.With 8 Figures     

Evaporation over the Aegean sea using large-scale parameters

Summary The accuracy of evaporation estimates based on meteorological observations from selected coastal stations and various methods are tested in the area of the Aegean sea. The higher values of evaporation are predicted through Smith's approach and bulk aerodynamic formula withC _E=1.85×10³. Priestley-Taylor parameter and annual variation of evaporation in the are are presented analytically.With 5 Figures     

Further information on the macroseismic field in the Balkan area

Papazachos and Papaioannou (1997) (called PP97 hereinafter) studied the macroseismic field in the Balkan area (Greece, Albania, former Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and western Turkey) with the purpose of deriving attenuation and scaling relations useful for seismic hazard assessment and study of historical earthquakes. In his comment, Trifunac suggests that our analysis might exhibit certain bias for all countries except Greece due to problems mainly associated with the database (completeness, etc.), conversion of local intensity scales used in the Balkan countries, as well as to the local variations of the attenuation relation due to the variation of the geotectonic environment in this area. Specifically, his most important comments can be summarized as follows: a) The large participation of Greek data probably biased the scaling relations proposed in the study. b) The conversion relations used between local macroseismic scales are less accurate than their proposed such relations. c) The variation of attenuation (geometrical and anelastic) in different regions of the study area is important and local relations (instead of the proposed single relation) should be determined for seismic hazard assessment. In the following, we study in detail each of these possible bias sources. Additional work on the macroseismic field of the Balkan area shows that none of the previously described factors, suggested by Trifunac, introduces bias in the results presented by PP97. Specifically, it is shown that the database used by PP97 fulfills the basic requirements for a reliable determinations of attenuation and scaling relations proper for seismic hazard assessment in all five countries of this area. Evidence is presented that no strong geographical variation of the attenuation of macroseismic intensities of shallow earthquakes is observed. Relations between local version of intensity scales suggested by Shebalin et al. (1974) are shown to be reliable. Finally, it is demonstrated that national practices for estimation of macroseismic intensities may affect the results of seismic hazard assessment but proper formulation can be applied (PP97) which allows to take into account such differences in national practices. This formulation allows also to introduce and correct for anisotropic radiation at the seismic source as well as the incorporation of site effects.     

Predicting Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: The FORSPEF Tool

A novel integrated prediction system for solar flares (SFs) and solar energetic particle (SEP) events is presented here. The tool called forecasting solar particle events and flares (FORSPEF) provides forecasts of solar eruptive events, such as SFs with a projection to occurrence and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the likelihood of occurrence of an SEP event. In addition, the tool provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual SF and CME near real-time data, as well as the SEP characteristics (e.g. peak flux, fluence, rise time, and duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of SFs relies on the effective connected magnetic field strength (\(B_{\mathrm{eff}}\)) metric, which is based on an assessment of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations, and it uses a sophisticated statistical analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events, new statistical methods have been developed for the likelihood of the SEP occurrence and the expected SEP characteristics. The prediction window in the forecasting scheme is 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours, while the respective prediction time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and ranges between 15?–?20 minutes for solar flares and 6 hours for CMEs. We present the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection, and the operational setup. Finally, we demonstrate the validation of the modules of the FORSPEF tool using categorical scores constructed on archived data, and we also discuss independent case studies.     

Investigating sea-state effects on flash flood hydrograph and inundation forecasting

A common source of uncertainty in flood inundation forecasting is the hydrograph used. Given the role of sea-air-hydro-land chain processes on the water cycle, flood hydrographs in coastal areas can be indirectly affected by sea state. This study investigates sea-state effects on precipitation, discharge, and flood inundation forecasting implementing atmospheric, ocean wave, hydrological, and hydraulic-hydrodynamic coupled models. The Chemical Hydrological Atmospheric Ocean wave System (CHAOS) was used for coupled hydro-meteorological-wave simulations ‘accounting’ or ‘not accounting’ the impact of sea state on precipitation and, subsequently, on flood hydrograph. CHAOS includes the WRF-Hydro hydrological model and the WRF-ARW meteorological model two-way coupled with the WAM wave model through the OASIS3-MCT coupler. Subsequently, the 2D HEC-RAS hydraulic-hydrodynamic model was forced by the flood hydrographs and map the inundated areas. A flash flood event occurred on 15 November 2017 in Mandra, Attica, Greece, causing 24 fatalities, and damages was selected as case study. The calibration of models was performed exploiting historical flood records and previous studies. Human interventions such as hydraulic works and the urban areas were included in the hydraulic modelling geometry domain. The representation of the resistance caused by buildings was based on Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) data while the local elevation rise method was used in the urban-flood simulation. The flood extent results were assessed using the Critical Success Index (CSI), and CSI penalize. Integrating sea-state affected the forecast of precipitation and discharge peaks, causing up to +24% and from −8% to +36% differences, respectively, improving inundation forecast by 4.5% and flooding additional approximately 70 building blocks. The precipitation forcing time step was also highlighted as significant factor in such a small-scale flash flood. The integrated multidisciplinary methodological approach could be adopted in operational forecasting for civil protection applications facilitating the protection of socio-economic activities and human lives during similar future events.     

Regionalization of seismic hazard in Greece based on seismic sources

A semi-probabilistic approach to the seismic hazard assessment of Greece is presented. For this reason, a recent seismotectonic model for shallow and intermediate depth earthquake sources, based on historical as well as on instrumental data, was used. Different attenuation formulae were proposed for the macroseismic intensity and the strong ground motion parameters for the shallow and the intermediate focal depth shocks. The data were elaborated in terms of McGuire's computer program, which is based on the Cornell's method.A grid of equally spaced points at 20 km distance was made and the seismic hazard recurrence curves for various parameters of the seismic intensity was estimated for each point. Finally, seismic hazard maps for the area of Greece were compiled utilizing the entire range of recurrence curves. These maps depict areas of equal seismic hazard and for every area the analytical relations of the typeSI =f(Tm), whereSI is a seismic intensity parameter andTm is the mean return period, were determined.     

Catalogue of ${>}\,55$ MeV Wide-longitude Solar Proton Events Observed by SOHO,ACE, and the STEREOs at ≈1${\approx}\,1$ AU During 2009 – 2016

Based on energetic particle observations made at \({\approx}\,1\) AU, we present a catalogue of 46 wide-longitude (\({>}\,45^{\circ}\)) solar energetic particle (SEP) events detected at multiple locations during 2009?–?2016. The particle kinetic energies of interest were chosen as \({>}\,55\) MeV for protons and 0.18?–?0.31 MeV for electrons. We make use of proton data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron Experiment (SOHO/ERNE) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory/High Energy Telescopes (STEREO/HET), together with electron data from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (ACE/EPAM) and the STEREO/Solar Electron and Proton Telescopes (SEPT). We consider soft X-ray data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and coronal mass ejection (CME) observations made with the SOHO/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) and STEREO/Coronagraphs 1 and 2 (COR1, COR2) to establish the probable associations between SEP events and the related solar phenomena. Event onset times and peak intensities are determined; velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) are performed for protons; TSA is performed for electrons. In our event sample, there is a tendency for the highest peak intensities to occur when the observer is magnetically connected to solar regions west of the flare. Our estimates for the mean event width, derived as the standard deviation of a Gaussian curve modelling the SEP intensities (protons \({\approx}\,44^{\circ}\), electrons \({\approx}\,50^{\circ}\)), largely agree with previous results for lower-energy SEPs. SEP release times with respect to event flares, as well as the event rise times, show no simple dependence on the observer’s connection angle, suggesting that the source region extent and dominant particle acceleration and transport mechanisms are important in defining these characteristics of an event. There is no marked difference between the speed distributions of the CMEs related to wide events and the CMEs related to all near-Earth SEP events of similar energy range from the same time period.