Probabilistic failure analysis of infinite slopes under random rainfall processes and spatially variable soil

Rainfall-induced landslides occur during or immediately after rainfall events in which the pore water pressure builds up, leading to shallow slope failure. Thereby, low permeability layers result in high gradients in pore water pressure. The spatial variability of the soil permeability influences the probability such low permeability layers, and hence the probability of slope failure. In this paper, we investigate the influence of the vertical variability of soil permeability on the slope reliability, accounting for the randomness of rainfall processes. We model the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil with a one-dimensional random field. The random rainfall events are characterised by their duration and intensity and are modelled through self-similar random processes. The transient infiltration process is represented by Richards equation, which is evaluated numerically. The reliability analysis of the infinite slope is based on the factor of safety concept for evaluating slope stability. To cope with the large number of random variables arising from the discretization of the random field and the rainfall process, we evaluate the slope reliability through Subset Simulation, which is an adaptive Monte Carlo method known to be especially efficient for reliability analysis of such high-dimensional problems. Numerical investigations show higher probability of slope failure with increased spatial variability of the saturated hydraulic conductivity and with more uniform rainfall patterns.     

Seismic hazard assessment and design spectra for the Kozani-Grevena region (Greece) after the earthquake of May 13, 1995

The Kozani-Grevena (Greece) destructive earthquake occurred in a region of low seismicity. A considerable amount of strong-motion data was acquired from the permanent strong motion network of the Institute of Engineering Scismology and Earthquake Engineering (ITSAK) as well as from a temporary one installed after the earthquake. On the basis of this data set as well as on the observed macroseismic intensities, local attenuation relations for peak ground acceleration and velocity are proposed. A posteriori seismic hazard analysis is attempted for the affected and surrounding areas in terms of peak ground acceleration, velocity, bracketed duration and spectral acceleration. The analysis shows that the event of May 13, 1995 can be characterized as one with a mean return period of 500 to 1000 years. Relying on the observed spectral-acceleration amplification factors and the expected peak ground acceleration for mean return period of 500 years, region-specific elastic design spectra for the buildings of the Kozani and Grevena prefectures are proposed.     

Hydromagnetic free convection flow in the stokes problem for a porous vertical limiting surface with constant suction

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of a uniform transverse magnetic field on the free-convection flow of a viscous incompressible and electrically conductive fluid (e.g., of a stellar atmosphere) past an impulsively started, infinite, porous, vertical limiting surface (e.g., of a star) with a constant suction. The magnetic Reynolds number is assumed small so that the induced magnetic field is considered negligible. Exact solution of the equations governing the flow is obtained in closed form with the help of the Laplace transform technique when the Prandtl numberP=1. Expressions are given for the velocity field, for the temperature field and for their related quantities. The results thus obtained are discussed quantitatively in the last section of this paper.     

Implementation of the ground level enhancement alert software at NMDB database

The European Commission is supporting the real-time database for high-resolution neutron monitor measurements (NMDB) as an e-Infrastructures project in the Seventh Framework Programme in the Capacities section. The realization of the NMDB will provide the opportunity for several applications most of which will be implemented in real-time. An important application will be the establishment of an Alert signal when dangerous solar particle events are heading to the Earth, resulting into a ground level enhancement (GLE) registered by neutron monitors (NMs). The cosmic ray community has been occupied with the question of establishing such an Alert for many years and recently several groups succeeded in creating a proper algorithm capable of detecting space weather threats in an off-line mode. A lot of original work has been done to this direction and every group working in this field performed routine runs for all GLE cases, resulting into statistical analyses of GLE events. The next step was to make this algorithm as accurate as possible and most importantly, working in real-time. This was achieved when, during the last GLE observed so far, a real-time GLE Alert signal was produced. In this work, the steps of this procedure as well as the functionality of this algorithm for both the scientific community and users are being discussed. Nevertheless, the transition of the Alert algorithm to the NMDB is also being discussed.     

Scientific Analysis within SEPServer – New Perspectives in Solar Energetic Particle Research: The Case Study of the 13 July 2005 Event

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a key ingredient of solar?Cterrestrial physics both for fundamental research and space weather applications. Multi-satellite observations are an important and incompletely exploited tool for studying the acceleration and the coronal and interplanetary propagation of the particles. While STEREO uses for this diagnostic two identical sets of instrumentation, there are many earlier observations carried out with different spacecraft. It is the aim of the SEPServer project to make these data and analysis tools available to a broad user community. The consortium will carry out data-driven analysis and simulation-based data analysis capable of deconvolving the effects of interplanetary transport and solar injection from SEP observations, and will compare the results with the electromagnetic signatures. The tools and results will be provided on the web server of the project in order to facilitate further analysis by the research community. This paper describes the data products and analysis strategies with one specific event, the case study of 13 July 2005. The release time of protons and electrons are derived using data-driven and simulation-based analyses, and compared with hard X-ray and radio signatures. The interconnection of the experimental and the simulation-based results are discussed in detail.     

Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events Using Principal Component Analysis

We perform a principal component analysis (PCA) on a set of six solar variables (i.e. width/size (\(s\)) and velocity (\(u\)) of a coronal mass ejection, logarithm of the solar flare (SF) magnitude (\(\log\mathit{SXRs}\)), SF longitude (\(\mathit{lon}\)), duration (\(\mathit{DT}\)), and rise time (\(\mathit{RT}\))). We classify the solar energetic particle (SEP) event radiation impact (in terms of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scales) with respect to the characteristics of their parent solar events. We further attempt to infer the possible prediction of SEP events. In our analysis, we use 126 SEP events with complete solar information, from 1997 to 2013. Each SEP event is a vector in six dimensions (corresponding to the six solar variables used in this work). The PCA transforms the input vectors into a set of orthogonal components. By mapping the characteristics of the parent solar events, a new base defined by these components led to the classification of the SEP events. We furthermore applied logistic regression analysis with single, as well as multiple explanatory variables, in order to develop a new index (\(I\)) for the nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of SEP events. We tested several different schemes for \(I\) and validated our findings with the implementation of categorical scores (probability of detection (POD) and false-alarm rate (FAR)). We present and interpret the obtained scores, and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the different implementations. We show that \(I\) holds prognosis potential for SEP events. The maximum POD achieved is 77.78% and the relative FAR is 40.96%.     

Flood inundation mapping sensitivity to riverine spatial resolution and modelling approach

An innovative approach in the investigation of complex landscapes for hydraulic modelling applications is the use of terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) that can lead to a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). Another notable factor in flood modelling is the selection of the hydrodynamic model (1D, 2D and 1D/2D), especially in complex riverine topographies, that can influence the accuracy of flood inundation area and mapping. This paper uses different types of hydraulic–hydrodynamic modelling approaches and several types of river and riparian area spatial resolution for the implementation of a sensitivity analysis for floodplain mapping and flood inundation modelling process at ungauged watersheds. Four data sets have been used for the construction of the river and riparian areas: processed and unprocessed TLS data, topographic land survey data and typical digitized contours from 1:5000-scale topographic maps. Modelling approaches combinations consist of: one-dimensional hydraulic models (HEC-RAS, MIKE 11), two-dimensional hydraulic models (MIKE 21, MIKE 21 FM) and combinations of coupled hydraulic models (MIKE 11/MIKE 21) within the MIKE FLOOD platform. Historical flood records and estimated flooded area derived from an observed extreme flash-flood event have been used in the validation process using 2 × 2 contingency tables. Flood inundation maps have been generated for each modelling approach and landscape configuration at the lower part of Xerias River reach at Volos, Greece, and compared for assessing the sensitivity of input data and model structure uncertainty. Results provided from contingency table analysis indicate the sensitivity of floodplain modelling on the DEM spatial resolution and the hydraulic modelling approach.     

Unified Local Magnitude Scale for Earthquakes of South Balkan Area

—A homogeneous earthquake catalog spanning 1964–1995 for the southern Balkan area is presented, by expressing the size of the earthquakes in a unified local magnitude scale. The strategy followed to produce this catalog is also presented. Local magnitudes calculated by six Balkan seismological centers (ATH, THE, ISK, TIR, TTG, SKO) have been used in order to obtain relations between the estimated ML values from the Greek seismological centers (ATH and THE) and the remaining four Balkan stations. Since it was found that local magnitudes estimated by ATH and THE are almost identical, they have been used as one data set so as to correlate with the data of each one of the remaining four seismological stations. Based on the proposed relations, a unified local magnitude, MLGR, is given for each earthquake of the regional catalog. A published scaling relation between the ML values from ATH and THE networks and the corresponding seismic moment magnitude, Mw, was used in combination with the above relations, in order to enable the conversion of any ML value from any station into Mw. The catalog completeness has been checked and the b-value has been calculated for the complete data sample.     

A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in Greece

The maximum expected ground motion in Greece is estimated for shallow earthquakes using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). In order to accomplish this analysis the input data include an homogeneous catalogue of earthquakes for the period 426 BC–2003, a seismogenic source model with representative focal mechanisms and a set of velocity models. Because of the discrete character of the earthquake catalogue and of errors in location of single seismic events, a smoothing algorithm is applied to the catalogue of the main shocks to get a spatially smoothed distribution of magnitude. Based on the selected input parameters synthetic seismograms for an upper frequency content of 1 Hz are computed on a grid of 0.2° × 0.2°. The resultant horizontal components for displacement, velocity, acceleration and DGA (Design Ground Acceleration) are mapped. The maps which depict these results cannot be compared with previously published maps based on probabilistic methodologies as the latter were compiled for a mean return period of 476 years. Therefore, in order to validate our deterministic analysis, the final results are compared with PGA estimated from the maximum observed macroseismic intensity in Greece during the period 426 BC–2003.Since the results are obtained for point sources, with the frequency content scaled with moment magnitude, some sensitivity tests are performed to assess the influence of the finite extent of fault related to large events. Sensitivity tests are also performed to investigate the changes in the peak ground motion quantities when varying the crustal velocity models in some seismogenic areas. The ratios and the relative differences between the results obtained using different models are mapped and their mean value computed. The results highlight the importance in the deterministic approach of using good and reliable velocity models.