Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP flood model

This study presents an off-line global evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP hydrological model including a two-way flood scheme. The flood dynamics is indeed described through the daily coupling between the ISBA land surface model and the TRIP river routing model including a prognostic flood reservoir. This reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the critical river bankfull height and vice versa. The flood interacts with the soil hydrology through infiltration and with the overlying atmosphere through precipitation interception and free water surface evaporation. The model is evaluated over a relatively long period (1986–2006) at 1° resolution using the Princeton University 3-hourly atmospheric forcing. Four simulations are performed in order to assess the model sensitivity to the river bankfull height. The evaluation is made against satellite-derived global inundation estimates as well as in situ river discharge observations at 122 gauging stations. First, the results show a reasonable simulation of the global distribution of simulated floodplains when compared to satellite-derived estimates. At basin scale, the comparison reveals some discrepancies, both in terms of climatology and interannual variability, but the results remain acceptable for a simple large-scale model. In addition, the simulated river discharges are improved in term of efficiency scores for more than 50% of the 122 stations and deteriorated for 4% only. Two mechanisms mainly explain this positive impact: an increase in evapotranspiration that limits the annual discharge overestimation found when flooding is not taking into account and a smoothed river peak flow when the floodplain storage is significant. Finally, the sensitivity experiments suggest that the river bankfull depth is potentially tunable according to the river discharge scores to control the accuracy of the simulated flooded areas and its related increase in land surface evaporation. Such a tuning could be relevant at least for climate studies in which the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation are generally poorly represented.     

Bounding the time delay between high-energy neutrinos and gravitational-wave transients from gamma-ray bursts

We derive a conservative coincidence time window for joint searches of gravitational-wave (GW) transients and high-energy neutrinos (HENs, with energies ?100 GeV), emitted by gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). The last are among the most interesting astrophysical sources for coincident detections with current and near-future detectors. We take into account a broad range of emission mechanisms. We take the upper limit of GRB durations as the 95% quantile of the T₉₀’s of GRBs observed by BATSE, obtaining a GRB duration upper limit of ∼150 s. Using published results on high-energy (>100 MeV) photon light curves for 8 GRBs detected by Fermi LAT, we verify that most high-energy photons are expected to be observed within the first ∼150 s of the GRB. Taking into account the breakout-time of the relativistic jet produced by the central engine, we allow GW and HEN emission to begin up to 100 s before the onset of observable gamma photon production. Using published precursor time differences, we calculate a time upper bound for precursor activity, obtaining that 95% of precursors occur within ∼250 s prior to the onset of the GRB. Taking the above different processes into account, we arrive at a time window of t_HEN − t_GW ∈ [−500 s, +500 s]. Considering the above processes, an upper bound can also be determined for the expected time window of GW and/or HEN signals coincident with a detected GRB, t_GW − t_GRB ≈ t_HEN − t_GRB ∈ [−350 s, +150 s]. These upper bounds can be used to limit the coincidence time window in multimessenger searches, as well as aiding the interpretation of the times of arrival of measured signals.     

Carbon and oxygen isotopes of Maastrichtian–Danian shallow marine carbonates: Yacoraite Formation, northwestern Argentina

The Maastrichtian–Danian limestones of the Yacoraite Formation (northwestern Argentina) show carbon and oxygen isotopic values consistent with shallow marine conditions. The members of the formation respond to different sedimentary environments and are characterised by distinctive stable isotopes and geochemistry. The basal Amblayo Member is composed of high-energy dolomitic limestones and limestones with positive isotopic values (+2‰ δ¹³C, +2‰ δ¹⁸O). The top of the member reveals an isotopic shift of δ¹³C (−5‰) and δ¹⁸O (−10‰), probably related to a descent in the sea level. The sandy Güemes Member has isotopically negative (−2‰ δ¹³C, −1‰ δ¹⁸O) limestones, principally controlled by water mixing, decreased organic productivity, and compositional changes in the carbonates. The isotopically lighter limestones are calcitic, with a greater terrigenous contribution and different geochemical composition (high Si–Mn–Fe–Na, low Ca–Mg–Sr). These isotopic and lithological changes relate to the Cretaceous–Palaeogene transition. The Alemanía Member, composed of dolomitic limestones and pelites, represents a return to marine conditions and shows a gradual increase in isotopic values, reaching values similar to those of the Amblayo Member. The Juramento Member, composed of stromatolite limestones, shows isotopic variations that can be correlated with the two well-defined, shallowing-upward sequences of the member.     

Intermittent ice sheet discharge events in northeastern North America during the last glacial period

The 3D ice sheet model of Marshall and Clarke, which includes both dynamics and thermodynamics, is used to successfully simulate millennial-scale oscillations within an ice sheet under steady external forcing. Such internal oscillations are theorized to be the main cause of quasi-periodic large-scale ice discharges known as Heinrich Events. An analysis of the mechanisms associated with multi-millennial oscillations of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, including the initiation and termination of sliding events, is performed. This analysis involves an examination of the various heat sources and sinks that affect the basal ice temperature, which in turn determines the nature of the ice sheet movement. The ice sheet thickness and surface slope, which affect the pressure-melting point and strain heating, respectively, are found to be critical for the formation and development of fast moving ice streams, which lead to large iceberg calving. Although the main provenance for Heinrich Events is thought to be from Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait, we show that the more northerly regions around Lancaster Strait and Baffin Island may also be important sources for ice discharges during the last glacial period. This paper is dedicated to the memory of Gerard C. Bond.     

Ice cover variability in the Caspian and Aral seas from active and passive microwave satellite data

The paper discusses time and space variations of ice extent in the Caspian and Aral seas during the last decade (1992-2002). It uses synergy of data from active (radar altimeter) and passive (radiometer) microwave nadir-looking instruments onboard the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The proposed approach is substantiated and validated using both in situ and satellite imagery data for the Caspian Sea. The results indicate significant spatial and temporal variability of ice conditions, with a significant decrease of both the duration of ice season and ice extent during the last four winters (1998-2002). The TOPEX/Poseidon-derived time series of sea ice extent are very valuable in view of the fragmentary and mostly unpublished data on ice conditions on the Caspian and Aral seas since the mid-1980s.     

Toward a High-Resolution Monitoring of Continental Surface Water Extent and Dynamics,at Global Scale: from GIEMS (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites) to SWOT (Surface Water Ocean Topography)

Up to now, high-resolution mapping of surface water extent from satellites has only been available for a few regions, over limited time periods. The extension of the temporal and spatial coverage was difficult, due to the limitation of the remote sensing technique [e.g., the interaction of the radiation with vegetation or cloud for visible observations or the temporal sampling with the synthetic aperture radar (SAR)]. The advantages and the limitations of the various satellite techniques are reviewed. The need to have a global and consistent estimate of the water surfaces over long time periods triggered the development of a multi-satellite methodology to obtain consistent surface water all over the globe, regardless of the environments. The Global Inundation Extent from Multi-satellites (GIEMS) combines the complementary strengths of satellite observations from the visible to the microwave, to produce a low-resolution monthly dataset (\(0.25^\circ \,\times \,0.25^\circ\)) of surface water extent and dynamics. Downscaling algorithms are now developed and applied to GIEMS, using high-spatial-resolution information from visible, near-infrared, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images, or from digital elevation models. Preliminary products are available down to 500-m spatial resolution. This work bridges the gaps and prepares for the future NASA/CNES Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission to be launched in 2020. SWOT will delineate surface water extent estimates and their water storage with an unprecedented spatial resolution and accuracy, thanks to a SAR in an interferometry mode. When available, the SWOT data will be adopted to downscale GIEMS, to produce a long time series of water surfaces at global scale, consistent with the SWOT observations.     

Statistical properties of global geomagnetic indexes as a potential forecasting tool for strong perturbations

Here we extend to global level, through the SYM-H index and for the period 1981–2003, a study recently published by our group regarding distributions of local geomagnetic measurements near the South Atlantic anomaly, for the period 1998–2003, advanced as a potential forecasting tool. We have found, once more, a correlation between distributions and the corresponding storm intensities. A step forward was the finding of a correlation between the temporal variation of distributions and the corresponding storm intensities which could also serve as a probabilistic storm forecasting method. The data was obtained at the World Data Centre for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, Japan.     

Preliminary Assessment of SARAL/AltiKa Observations over the Ganges-Brahmaputra and Irrawaddy Rivers

Radar altimetry has demonstrated strong capabilities for the monitoring of water levels of lakes, rivers and wetlands over the last 20 years. The Indo-French SARAL/AltiKa mission, launched in February 2013, is the first satellite radar altimetry mission to carry onboard a Ka-band sensor. We propose here to evaluate the potential of this new instrument for land hydrology through comparisons with other altimetry-derived stages and discharges in the Ganges-Brahmaputra and Irrawaddy river basins using its first year of data. Due to the lack of concomitant in situ measurements for the current period, Jason-2 data, previously evaluated against in situ gauge records, were used as reference. Comparisons between Jason-2 and SARAL-derived water levels and discharges, and Jason-2 and Envisat (which flew the same orbit as SARAL from 2002 to 2010)-derived ones, was performed. Time-series of only one year of SARAL-derived water levels and discharges present better performances (lower RMSE and higher R, generally greater than 0.95) than the ones derived from Envisat when compared with Jason-2.