Sensitivity analysis of automatic landslide mapping: numerical experiments towards the best solution

The automatic detection of landslides after major events is a crucial issue for public agencies to support disaster response. Pixel-based approaches (PBAs) are widely used in the literature for various applications. However, the accuracy of PBAs in the case of automatic landslide mapping (ALM) is affected by several issues. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of ALM using PBA through digital terrain models (DTMs). The analysis, carried out in a study area of Poland, consisted of the following steps: (1) testing the influence of selected DTM resolutions for ALM, (2) assessing the relevance of diverse landslide morphological indicators for ALM, and (3) assessing the sensitivity to landslide features for a selected size of moving window (kernel) calculations for ALM. Ultimately, we assessed the performance of three classification methods: maximum likelihood (ML), feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and support vector machine (SVM). This broad analysis, as combination of grid cell resolution, surface derivatives calculation, and performance classification methods, is the challenging aspect of the research. The results of almost 500 experimental tests provide valuable guidelines for experts performing ALM. The most important findings indicate that feature sensitivity in the case of kernel size increases with coarser DTM resolution; however, the peak of the optimal feature performance for the selected study area and landslide type was demonstrated for a resolution of 20 m. Another finding indicated that in combining a set of topographic variables, the optimal performance was acquired for a DTM resolution of 30 m and the support vector machine classification. Moreover, the best performance of the identification is represented for SVM classification.     

Do static stress changes of a moderate‐magnitude earthquake significantly modify the regional seismic hazard? Hints from the L'Aquila 2009 normal‐faulting earthquake (Mw 6.3, central Italy)

We investigated the Coulomb stress changes in the active faults surrounding a moderate‐magnitude normal‐faulting earthquake (2009 L'Aquila, Mw 6.3) and the associated variations in the expected ground motion on regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. We show that the static stress variations can locally increase the seismic hazard by modifying the expected mean recurrence time on neighbouring faults by up to ~290 years, with associated variations in the probability of occurrence of the maximum expected earthquake of up to ~2%. Our findings suggest that the increase in seismic hazard on neighbouring faults following moderate‐magnitude earthquakes is probably not sufficient to necessitate systematic upgrades of regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps, but must be considered to better address and schedule strategies for local‐scale mitigation of seismic risk.     

Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.     

Sardignaite, a new mineral, the second known bismuth molybdate: description and crystal structure

The new mineral sardignaite, a bismuth molybdate with formula BiMo₂O₇(OH)·2H₂O, occurs in quartz veins within a granitic rock at Su Senargiu, near Sarroch, Sardegna, Italy. The name is after the locality. Sardignaite occurs a thin prismatic crystals up to 1 mm in length, with pale yellow color and a white streak. It is transparent with adamantine lustre, non fluorescent, and brittle with a conchoidal fracture. It is associated with bismuthinite, bismoclite, molybdenite, ferrimolybdite, koechlinite, wulfenite, and the new mineral IMA 2009–022. Mohs hardness is ca. 3. D _calc is 4.82 g/cm³. The mineral is monoclinic, space group P2₁/m, with a 5.7797(7), b 11.567(1), c 6.3344(8) Å, β 113.360(9)°, V 388.8(1) ų. The strongest lines in the powder X-ray diffraction pattern are d(I)(hkl): 3.206(100)(031), 5.03(80)(?101), 1.992(45)(221), 3.120(32)(130). The crystal structure of sardignaite was solved to R(F) 0.056 using single-crystal X-ray diffraction data, and is characterized by edge-sharing dimers of [MoO₅(H₂O)] octahedra, linked to each other through corner-sharing to give rise to corrugated columns running along b. Such columns are held together by Bi³⁺ cations, eight-fold coordinated by 7 O + 1 (OH). Both the mineral and its name were approved by the IMA-CNMNC.     

Groundwater flow systems in turbidites of the Northern Apennines (Italy): natural discharge and high speed railway tunnel drainage

Turbidites crop out extensively in the Northern Apennine mountains (Italy). The huge amounts of groundwater drained by tunnels, built for the high speed railway connection between Bologna and Florence, demonstrate the aquifer-like behaviour of these units, up to now considered as aquitards. A conceptual model of groundwater flow systems (GFS) in fractured aquifers of turbidites is proposed, taking into account both system natural state and the perturbation induced by tunnel drainage. Analysis of hydrological data (springs, streams and tunnel discharge), collected over 10 years, was integrated with analysis of hydrochemical and isotopic data and a stream-tunnel tracer test. Hydrologic recession analysis of undisturbed conditions is a key tool in studying turbiditic aquifer hydrogeology, permitting the discrimination of GFS, the estimation of recharge relative to the upstream reach portion and the identification of springs most vulnerable to tunnel drainage impacts. The groundwater budgeting analysis provides evidence that the natural aquifer discharge was stream-focused through GFS, developed downslope or connected to main extensional tectonic lineaments intersecting stream beds; now tunnels drain mainly active recharge groundwater and so cause a relevant stream baseflow deplenishment (approximately two-thirds of the natural value), possibly resulting in adverse effects on local ecosystems.     

Structural evolution of a 2M 1 phengite mica up to 11 GPa: an in situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction study

The structural evolution at high pressure of a natural 2M ₁-phengite [(K_0.98Na_0.02)_Σ=1.00(Al_1.55Mg_0.24Fe_0.21Ti_0.02)_Σ=2.01(Si_3.38Al_0.62)O₁₀(OH)₂; a = 5.228(2), b = 9.057(3), c = 19.971(6)Å, β = 95.76(2)°; space group: C2/c] from the metamorphic complex of Cima Pal (Sesia Zone, Western Alps, Italy) was studied by single-crystal X-ray diffraction with a diamond anvil cell under hydrostatic conditions up to ~11 GPa. A series of 12 structure refinements were performed at selected pressures within the P range investigated. The compressional behaviour of the same phengite sample was previously studied up to ~25 GPa by synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction, showing an irreversible transformation with a drastic decrease of the crystallinity at P > 15–17 GPa. The elastic behaviour between 0.0001 and 17 GPa was modelled by a third-order Birch–Murnaghan Equation of State (BM-EoS), yielding to K _T0 = 57.3(10) GPa and K′ = ?K _T0/?P = 6.97(24). The single-crystal structure refinements showed that the significant elastic anisotropy of the 2M ₁-phengite (with β(a):β(b):β(c) = 1:1.17:4.60) is mainly controlled by the anisotropic compression of the K-polyhedra. The evolution of the volume of the inter-layer K-polyhedron as a function of P shows a negative slope, Fitting the P–V(K-polyhedron) data with a truncated second-order BM-EoS we obtain a bulk modulus value of K _T0(K-polyhedron) = 26(1) GPa. Tetrahedra and octahedra are significantly stiffer than the K-polyhedron. Tetrahedra behave as quasi-rigid units within the P range investigated. In contrast, a monotonic decrease is observed for the octahedron volume, with K _T0 = 120(10) GPa derived by a BM-EoS. The anisotropic response to pressure of the K-polyhedron affects the P-induced deformation mechanism on the tetrahedral sheet, consisting in a cooperative rotation of the tetrahedra and producing a significant ditrigonalization of the six-membered rings. The volume of the K-polyhedron and the value of the ditrigonal rotation parameter (α) show a high negative correlation (about 93%), though a slight discontinuity is observed at P >8 GPa. α increases linearly with P up to 7–8 GPa (with ?α/?P ≈ 0.7°/GPa), whereas at higher Ps a “saturation plateau” is visible. A comparison between the main deformation mechanisms as a function of pressure observed in 2M ₁- and 3T-phengite is discussed.