Comparing different models of aftershock rate decay: The role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after main shock

We evaluated the efficiency of various models in describing the time decay of aftershock rate of 47 simple sequences occurred in California (37) from 1933 to 2004 and in Italy (10) from 1976 to 2004. We compared the models by the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC_c) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), both based on the log-likelihood function and also including a penalty term that takes into account the number of independent observations and of free parameters of each model. These criteria follow two different approaches (probabilistic and Bayesian respectively) well covering the wide spectra of current views on model comparison. To evaluate the role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock, we compared the performance of different models by varying the starting time T_s and the minimum magnitude threshold M_min for each sequence. We found that Omori-type models including parameter c are preferable to those not including it, only for short T_s and low M_min while the latters generally perform better than the formers for T_s longer than a few hours and M_min larger than the main shock magnitude M_m minus 3 units. For T_s > 1 day or M_min > M_m − 2.5, only about 15% of the sequences still give a preference to models including c. This clearly indicates that a value of parameter c different from zero does not represent a general property of aftershock sequences in California and Italy but it is very likely induced in most cases by catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock. We also considered other models of aftershock decay proposed in the literature: the Stretched Exponential Law in two forms (including and not including a time shift) and the band Limited Power Law (LPL). We found that such models perform worse than the Modified Omori Model (MOM) and other Omori-type models for the large majority of sequences, although for LPL, the relatively short duration of the analyzed sequences (one year) might also contribute to its poor performance. Our analysis demonstrates that the MOM with c kept fixed to 0 represent the better choice for the modeling (and the forecasting) of simple sequence behavior in California and Italy.     

Fluids in early stage hydrothermal alteration of high-sulfidation epithermal systems: A view from the Vulcano active hydrothermal system (Aeolian Island,Italy)

High-sulfidation (HS) epithermal systems have elements in common with passively degassing volcanoes associated with high T, acid fumarole fields or acid crater lakes. They are considered to form in two stages, the first of which involves advanced argillic alteration resulting from intense, strongly acidic fluid–rock interaction. The La Fossa hydrothermal system (Vulcano Island) represents a classic example of such an active HS system and can be considered as a modern analogue of this early stage of alteration, resulting in a core of intense silicic (90–95% pure SiO₂) alteration surrounded by alunitic alteration zones.     

K-Rb ratio in high grade metamorphism: A confirmation of the hypothesis of a continual crustal evolution

The K:Rb ratio (R) in a metamorphic sequence with increasing metamorphism of the West Alps has been analysed. By a regression analysis a comparison is made with the trends observed for R byShaw (1968) in many magmatic processes. The K:Rb ratio in the metamorphic rocks shows a marked increase with increasing metamorphism in relation to a removal of the K content. The arithmetic averages of R in the rocks of amphibolite and granulite facies are 231 and 505 respectively. In some samples of granulite facies the R values are higher than those of the continental alkalic basalts and approximate to the oceanic tholeiites. The variations in the K:Rb ratio may be imputed, according toShaw, to an anatexis process which took place under high grade metamorphic conditions. The marked increase of the K:Rb ratio in the deep material would be caused by partial separation between K and Rb in the granulite assemblages and by an upward migration of Rb, relative to K, from the deep crustal levels of granulite facies. These considerations seem to confirmShaw’s hypothesis of the possibility of a marked crustal stratification and consequently of a continual crustal evolution.     

European blocking and Atlantic jet stream variability in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the CMCC-CMS climate model

The relationship between atmospheric blocking over Europe and the Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream is investigated in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and in a climate model. This is carried out using a bidimensional blocking index based on geopotential height and a diagnostic providing daily latitudinal position and strength of the jet stream. It is shown that European Blocking (EB) is not decoupled from the jet stream but it is mainly associated with its poleward displacements. Moreover, the whole blocking area placed on the equatorward side of the jet stream, broadly ranging from Azores up to Scandinavia, emerges as associated with poleward jet displacements. The diagnostics are hence applied to two different climate model simulations in order to evaluate the biases in the jet stream and in the blocking representation. This analysis highlights large underestimation of EB, typical feature of general circulation models. Interestingly, observed blocking and jet biases over the Euro-Atlantic area are consistent with the blocking-jet relationship observed in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. Finally, the importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated showing that realistic SSTs can reduce the bias in the jet stream variability but not in the frequency of EB. We conclude highlighting that blocking-related diagnostics can provide more information about the Euro-Atlantic variability than diagnostics simply based on the Atlantic jet stream.     

Long‐term demographic and reproductive trends in Ciona intestinalis sp. A

Ciona intestinalis sp. A (Tunicata, Ascidiacea) is a marine invertebrate with a widespread distribution and high invasive potential, yet little is known about its ecology. Here, the macrodynamics of demographic and reproductive trends were first determined using archive data covering 2002–2012. Species abundance in the central Tyrrhenian Sea (Campania, Italy ‐ NW Mediterranean) displayed Poisson distribution across 2002–2008, massive die‐off in 2009/2010 and population recovery in 2011/2012. We defined the seasonal ranges of sea surface temperature in which sampling size, animal size and reproductive status reached their highest values. In 2003/2004, self and non‐self fertilization appeared to follow reverse trends across the year. The long‐term recording run here on Ciona intestinalis sp. A provides novel insights into its population biology and ecology, and represents a valuable tool for sampling management and research planning.     

Excavation of the Aica-Mules pilot tunnel for the Brenner base tunnel: information gained on water inflows in tunnels in granitic massifs

The construction of the Aica-Mules tunnel, completed in 2010, provides a relevant case history for improving the knowledge of hydrogeological issues related to the excavation of deep tunnels in granitic massifs. The Aica-Mules tunnel is a 10 km-long structure, forming part of the high-speed railway connection between Austria and Italy across the Alpine chain, located at an average depth of 500–1,000 m below the surface. Prior to and during the construction, intense hydrogeological monitoring was set up, allowing the collection of abundant data concerning: (1) the evolution of water inflows into the tunnel; (2) the chemistry and temperature of drained groundwater; and (3) the influence of tunnel drainage on springs. Based on detailed analysis of geological/hydrogeological data, this article provides an insight into the permeability distribution in granitic rocks affected by relevant brittle tectonic deformation, and the consequences of water inflow during excavation. The available time series from the principal water discharges in the tunnel have been used in order to test the reliability of some of the most commonly applied analytical methods for the forecast of water inflows into tunnels.     

The origin of Lake Cheko and the 1908 Tunguska Event recorded by forest trees

Several lines of evidence indicate that Cheko, a small lake close to the epicentre of the 1908 Tunguska Event (TE), fills a crater left behind by a fragment of the Tunguska Cosmic Body that impacted the ground downrange of the main explosion. It is thought that over 80 million trees were flattened or burnt as a consequence of the TE. However, a small number of trees in the devastated area survived the explosion and recorded in their growth‐ring patterns the environmental changes that followed this event. Some of those trees were found around Lake Cheko, ~10 km NW of the inferred TE epicentre. We analysed new data from the floor of Lake Cheko, including seismic‐reflection profiles, side‐scan sonar and video images, as well as dendrochronological evidence in tree samples collected along the shores, to test the hypothesis of a 1908 formation of the lake.     

Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots

Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.     

A deep-seated slow movement controlled by structural setting in marly formations of Central Italy

The site investigation of low-gradient slopes composed by marly rocks usually focuses on shallow slides in weathered mantling material as it is assumed that the underlying bedrock has higher strength, but deeper investigations may reveal larger, active, deep-seated movements. A typical example of this is found in Montemartano (Perugia, Central Italy). Here aerial photo interpretation and field observations indicate that active movements involve the shallower portion of the slope, formed by a very old and large landslide body extending over an area of about 0.5 km². Borehole core logging and probe inclinometer monitoring reveal that the area corresponding to the deep-seated landslide is moving at a maximum rate of 70 mm/year down to a maximum depth of 40 m. A comparison of inclinometer and piezometer data indicates that the movement seasonally reactivates even when rainfall and piezometer levels are below average values and suggests that structural setting of the whole slope influences both groundwater flow and movement kinematics. This hypothesis is reinforced by seepage analyses and stability analyses yielding a mobilized shear strength close to residual strength of the clayey interbeds of the marly limestone formations. This implies that instability occurs along bedding over a large part of the slide. The importance of these phenomena in land management policy is discussed and the critical aspects of their investigation and monitoring are addressed. The reconstruction of landslide geometry/stratigraphy and geotechnical characterization of the materials is closely considered, particularly as these are complicated by the limited representativeness of field and laboratory investigations in this type of material.