Using the present to estimate the future: A simplified approach for the quantification of climate change effects on urban flooding by scenario analysis

Understanding and modelling pluvial flood patterns is pivotal for the estimation of flood impacts in urban areas, especially in a climate change perspective. However, urban flood modelling under climate change conditions poses several challenges. On one hand, the identification and collection of climate change data suitable for flood-related evaluations requires consistent computational and scientific effort. On the other hand, large difficulties can arise in the reproduction of the rainfall-runoff transformation process in cases when only little information about the subsurface processes is known. In this perspective, a simplified approach is proposed to address the challenges regarding the quantitative estimation of climate change effects on urban flooding for real case applications. The approach is defined as “bottom-up” because climate change information is not included in flood modelling, but it is only invoked for the interpretation of results. In other words, the challenge faced in this work is the development of a modelling strategy that is expeditious, because it does not require flood simulations for future rainfall scenarios, but only under current climate conditions, thus reducing the overall computational effort; and it is flexible, because results can be easily updated once new climate change data, scenarios or methods become available, without the need of additional flood simulations. To simulate real case applications, the approach is tested for a scenario analysis, where different return periods and hyetograph shapes are used as input for urban inundation modelling in Naples, Italy. The approach can support public and private stakeholders, such as land administrators and water systems managers; moreover, it represents a valuable and effective basis for climate change risk communication strategies.     

Major and trace element characterization of tephra layers offshore Pantelleria Island: insights into the last 200 ka of volcanic activity and contribution to the Mediterranean tephrochronology

A detailed tephrochronological study was carried out on the deep‐sea core collected from Site 963A in the Sicily Channel during ODP Leg 160. The chronology of the succession is provided by an age–depth model based on isotope stratigraphy and quantitative eco‐biostratigraphy. Major, trace and rare earth element content was obtained on single glass grains through electron probe micro‐analysis and laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry techniques from six well‐preserved tephra layers, characterized by a discrete thickness found along the succession. These deposits were correlated with the volcanic activity of Pantelleria and dated at 42.5, 127.5, 128.1, 129.1, 188.7 and 197.7 ka. This detailed chemical characterization of the studied deposits aims to provide a valuable reference database for scientists working on both proximal and distal products erupted at Pantelleria island during the Late Pleistocene. This study, moreover, offers the opportunity to better identify Pantelleria‐related marker tephras within the tephrochronological framework of the central and eastern Mediterranean area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Innovative analysis and use of high‐resolution DTMs for quantitative interrogation of Earth‐surface processes

This is the era of digital landscapes; the widespread availability of powerful sensing technologies has revolutionized the way it is possible to interrogate landscapes in order to understand the processes sculpting them. Vastly greater areas have now been acquired at ‘high resolution’: currently tens of metres globally to millimetric precision and accuracy locally. This permits geomorphic features to be visualized and analysed across the scales at which Earth‐surface processes operate. Especially exciting is the capturing of process dynamics in repeated surveying, which will only become more important with low‐cost accessible data generation through techniques such as Structure from Motion (SfM). But the key challenge remains; to interpret high resolution Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), particularly by extracting geomorphic features in robust and objective ways and then linking the observed features to the underlying physical processes. In response to the new data and challenges, recent years have seen improved processing of raw data into DTMs, development of data fusion techniques, novel quantitative analysis of topographic data, and innovative geomorphological mapping. The twelve papers collected in this volume sample this progress in interrogating Earth‐surface processes through the analysis of DTMs. They cover a wide range of disciplines and spatio‐temporal scales, from landslide prone landscapes, to agriculturally modified regions, to mountainous landscapes, and coastal zones. They all, however, showcase the quantitative exploitation of information contained in high‐resolution topographic data that we believe will underpin the improvement of our understanding of many elements of Earth‐surface processes. Most of the papers introduced here were first presented in a conference session at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly in 2011. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analysis of global model projections over Italy, with particular attention to the Italian Greater Alpine Region (GAR)

This study surveys the most recent projections of future climate change provided by 20 Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) with focus on the Italian region and in particular on the Italian Greater Alpine Region (GAR). We analyze historical and future simulations of monthly-mean surface air temperature (T) and total precipitation (P). We first compare simulated T and P from the AOGCMs with observations over Italy for the period 1951–2000, using bias indices as a metric for estimating the performance of each model. Using these bias indices and different ensemble averaging methods, we construct ensemble mean projections of future climate change over these regions under three different IPCC emission scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1). We find that the emissions pathway chosen has a greater impact on future simulated climate than the criteria used to obtain the ensemble means. Across all averaging methods and emission scenarios, the models project annual mean increase in T of 2–4°C over the period 1990–2100, with more pronounced increases in summer and warming of similar magnitude at high and low elevations areas (according to a threshold of 400 m). The models project decreases in annual-mean P over this same time period both over the Italian and GAR regions. This decrease is more pronounced over Italy, since a small increase in precipitation over the GAR is projected in the winter season.     

Tectonics,sea-level changes and palaeoenvironments in the early Pleistocene of Rome (Italy)

The historical site of the Monte Mario lower Pleistocene succession (Rome, Italy) is an important marker of the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary. Recently, the Monte Mario site was excavated and restudied. A spectacular angular unconformity characterizes the contact between the Monte Vaticano and the Monte Mario formations, which marks the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary. Biostratigraphical analyses carried out on ostracod, foraminifer, and calcareous nannofossil assemblages indicate an Early Pliocene age (topmost Zanclean, 3.81–3.70 Ma) for the underlying Monte Vaticano Formation, whereas the Monte Mario Formation has been dated as early Pleistocene (Santernian, 1.66–1.59 Ma). Palaeomagnetic analyses point to C2Ar and C1r2r polarity chrons for the Monte Vaticano and the Monte Mario formations, respectively. The Monte Mario Formation consists of two obliquity-forced depositional sequences (MM1 and MM2) characterized by transgressive systems tracts of littoral marine environments at depths, respectively, of 40–80 m and 15–20 m. The data obtained from foraminifer and ostracod assemblages allow us to reconstruct early Pleistocene relative sea-level changes near Rome. At the Plio/Pleistocene transition, a relative sea-level drop of at least 260 m occurred, as a result of both tectonic uplift of the central Tyrrhenian margin and glacio-eustatic changes linked to early Pleistocene glaciation (Marine Isotope Stage 58).     

Parametrical landslide modeling for the hydrogeological susceptibility assessment: from the Crati Valley to the Cavallerizzo landslide (Southern Italy)

The article deals with a tool for landslides susceptibility assessment as a function of the hydrogeological setting at different scales. The study has been applied to a test area located in Southern Italy. First, a 3D groundwater flow model was implemented for a large-scale area. The simulation of several groundwater conditions compared with the landslide activity map allows drawing a hydrogeological susceptibility map. Then, a slope scale analysis was carried out for the Cavallerizzo landslide. For this purpose, a 2D groundwater parametrical modeling was coupled with a slope stability analysis; the simulation was carried out by changing the values of the main hydrogeological parameters (recharge, groundwater supply level, etc.). The results enabled to connect the slope instability to some hydrogeological characteristics that are easy to survey and to monitor (e.g., rainfall, piezometrical level, and spring discharge), pointing out the hazard thresholds with regards to different triggering phenomena.     

Impact of event landslides on road networks: a statistical analysis of two Italian case studies

Despite abundant information on landslides, and on landslide hazard and risk, in Italy, little is known on the direct impact of event landslides on road networks and on the related economic costs. We investigated the physical and economic damage caused by two rainfall-induced landslide events in Central and Southern Italy, to obtain road restoration cost statistics. Using a GIS-based method, we exploited road maps and landslide event inventory maps to compute different metrics that quantify the impact of the landslide events on the natural landscape and on the road networks, by road type. The maps were used with cost data obtained from multiple sources, including local authorities, and specific legislation, to evaluate statistically the unit cost per metre of damaged road and the unit cost per square metre of damaging landslide, separately for main and secondary roads. The obtained unit costs showed large variations which we attribute to the different road types in the two study areas and to the different abundance of landslides. Our work confirms the long-standing conundrum of obtaining accurate landslide damage data and outlines the need for reliable, standardized methods to evaluate landslide damage and associated restoration costs that regional and local administrations can use rapidly in the aftermath of a landslide event. We conclude recommending that common standardized procedures to collect landslide cost data following each landslide event are established, in Italy and elsewhere. This will allow for more accurate and reliable evaluations of the economic costs of landslide events.     

Differential damage in the semi-confined Munazio Ireneo cubicle in Cagliari (Sardinia): a correlation between damage and microclimate

The Early Christian Munazio Ireneo cubicle in Cagliari (Sardinia) is carved into the rock and is one of the rare monuments of Sardinia belonging to Early Christian Age. It is 166 cm under the planking level and is a semi-confined chamber in which a gate allows exchange with the outside. In 1888, when it was discovered, it was completely painted, but over the years, it suffered a serious damage and all the paintings are nearly disappeared. Now the site shows a high moisture and a differential damage characterised by delamination, powdering, salt crystallisation and biological colonisation. The research offers a multidisciplinary approach to study the salt crystallisation damage, which is a phenomenon still not completely understood today. Studies and analyses highlight that different kinds of damage can be recognised. The cement mortar and the air pollution cause crystallisation of the sulphates. Constant capillary rising and the presence of water infiltration due to the rains, which travelled into the site from the vault, were detected during qualitative inspection. Although the microclimate did not change much in the site and the humidity was almost constant during the monitoring period, the variations in temperature allowed the phase transitions of sodium sulphate, especially in summer. The greatest damage of the porous stone is associated with the phase transitions and crystallisation inside the stone of sodium sulphate, one of the most harmful salts for porous materials because of its high crystallisation pressure.     

The 18.7 ka phreatomagmatic flank eruption on Etna (Italy): relationship between eruptive activity and sedimentary basement setting

This paper documents a phreatomagmatic flank eruption that occurred 18 700 ± 100 a BP , on the lower north-eastern slope of Etna during the Ellittico volcano activity, which produced fall and surge deposits. This type of eruption is connected to a sedimentary basement ridge at Etna. The interaction between the rising magma and the shallow groundwater hosted in the volcanic pile overlying the impermeable sediments resulted in phreatomagmatic instead of strombolian activity. Three eruptive phases are distinguished based on field and analytical data: (i) an explosive phreatomagmatic opening, (ii) a main phase producing coarse lithic-rich fallout and a strombolian deposit, and (iii) the final pulsating surge-forming phase. The discovery of this phreatomagmatic flank eruption, which occurred at lower altitude, raises important issues for previous hazard assessments at Etna.