A comprehensive study of surface and upper-air characteristics over two stations on the west coast of India during the occurrence of a cyclonic storm

While qualitative information from meteorological satellites has long been recognized as critical for monitoring weather events such as tropical cyclone activity, quantitative data are required to improve the numerical prediction of these events. In this paper, the sea surface winds from QuikSCAT, cloud motion vectors and water vapor winds from KALPANA-1 are assimilated using three-dimensional variational assimilation technique within Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Further, the sensitivity experiments are also carried out using the available cumulus convective parameterizations in WRF modeling system. The model performance is evaluated using available observations, and both qualitative and quantitative analyses are carried out while analyzing the surface and upper-air characteristics over Mumbai (previously Bombay) and Goa during the occurrence of the tropical cyclone PHYAN at the west coast of Indian subcontinent. The model-predicted surface and upper-air characteristics show improvements in most of the situations with the use of the satellite-derived winds from QuikSCAT and KALPANA-1. Some of the model results are also found to be better in sensitivity experiments using cumulus convection schemes as compared to the CONTROL simulation.     

Discontinuous Galerkin methods for modeling Hurricane storm surge

Storm surge due to hurricanes and tropical storms can result in significant loss of life, property damage, and long-term damage to coastal ecosystems and landscapes. Computer modeling of storm surge can be used for two primary purposes: forecasting of surge as storms approach land for emergency planning and evacuation of coastal populations, and hindcasting of storms for determining risk, development of mitigation strategies, coastal restoration and sustainability.Storm surge is modeled using the shallow water equations, coupled with wind forcing and in some events, models of wave energy. In this paper, we will describe a depth-averaged (2D) model of circulation in spherical coordinates. Tides, riverine forcing, atmospheric pressure, bottom friction, the Coriolis effect and wind stress are all important for characterizing the inundation due to surge. The problem is inherently multi-scale, both in space and time. To model these problems accurately requires significant investments in acquiring high-fidelity input (bathymetry, bottom friction characteristics, land cover data, river flow rates, levees, raised roads and railways, etc.), accurate discretization of the computational domain using unstructured finite element meshes, and numerical methods capable of capturing highly advective flows, wetting and drying, and multi-scale features of the solution.The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method appears to allow for many of the features necessary to accurately capture storm surge physics. The DG method was developed for modeling shocks and advection-dominated flows on unstructured finite element meshes. It easily allows for adaptivity in both mesh (h) and polynomial order (p) for capturing multi-scale spatial events. Mass conservative wetting and drying algorithms can be formulated within the DG method.In this paper, we will describe the application of the DG method to hurricane storm surge. We discuss the general formulation, and new features which have been added to the model to better capture surge in complex coastal environments. These features include modifications to the method to handle spherical coordinates and maintain still flows, improvements in the stability post-processing (i.e. slope-limiting), and the modeling of internal barriers for capturing overtopping of levees and other structures. We will focus on applications of the model to recent events in the Gulf of Mexico, including Hurricane Ike.     

The Indus flood of 2010 in Pakistan: a perspective analysis using remote sensing data

The Indus flood in 2010 was one of the greatest river disasters in recent history, which affected more than 14 million people in Pakistan. Although excessive rainfall between July and September 2010 has been cited as the major causative factor for this disaster, the human interventions in the river system over the years made this disaster a catastrophe. Geomorphic analysis suggests that the Indus River has had a very dynamic regime in the past. However, the river has now been constrained by embankments on both sides, and several barrages have been constructed along the river. As a result, the river has been aggrading rapidly during the last few decades due to its exceptionally high sediment load particularly in reaches upstream of the barrages. This in turn has caused significant increase in cross-valley gradient leading to breaches upstream of the barrages and inundation of large areas. Our flow accumulation analysis using SRTM data not only supports this interpretation but also points out that there are several reaches along the Indus River, which are still vulnerable to such breaches and flooding. Even though the Indus flood in 2010 was characterized by exceptionally high discharges, our experience in working on Himalayan rivers and similar recent events in rivers in Nepal and India suggest that such events can occur at relatively low discharges. It is therefore of utmost importance to identify such areas and plan mitigation measures as soon as possible. We emphasize the role of geomorphology in flood analysis and management and urge the river managers to take urgent steps to incorporate the geomorphic understanding of Himalayan rivers in river management plans.     

Age and geochemistry of the Newania dolomite carbonatites, India: implications for the source of primary carbonatite magma

The Newania carbonatite complex of India is one of the few dolomite-dominated carbonatites of the world. Intruding into Archean basement gneisses, the rocks of the complex have undergone limited diversification and are not associated with any alkaline silicate rock. Although the magmatic nature of the complex was generally accepted, its age of emplacement had remained equivocal because of the disturbed nature of radioisotope systems. Many questions about the nature of its mantle source and mode of origin had remained unanswered because of lack of geochemical and isotopic data. Here, we present results of our effort to date the complex using ¹⁴⁷Sm–¹⁴³Nd, ²⁰⁷Pb–²⁰⁶Pb and ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating techniques. We also present mineral chemistry, major and trace element geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotopic ratio data for these carbonatites. Our age data reveal that the complex was emplaced at ~1,473 Ma and parts of it were affected by a thermal event at ~904 Ma. The older ²⁰⁷Pb–²⁰⁶Pb ages reported here (~2.4 Ga) and by one earlier study (~2.3 Ga; Schleicher et al. Chem Geol 140:261–273, 1997) are deemed to be a result of heterogeneous incorporation of crustal Pb during the post-emplacement thermal event. The thermal event had little effect on many magmatic signatures of these rocks, such as its dolomite–magnesite–ankerite–Cr-rich magnetite–magnesio-arfvedsonite–pyrochlore assemblage, mantle like δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O and typical carbonatitic trace element patterns. Newania carbonatites show fractional crystallization trend from high-Mg to high-Fe through high-Ca compositions. The least fractionated dolomite carbonatites of the complex possess very high Mg# (≥80) and have similar major element oxide contents as that of primary carbonatite melts experimentally produced from peridotitic sources. In addition, lower rare earth element (and higher Sr) contents than a typical calcio-carbonatite and mantle like Nb/Ta ratios indicate that the primary magma for the complex was a magnesio-carbonatite melt and that it was derived from a carbonate bearing mantle. The Sr–Nd isotopic data suggest that the primary magma originated from a metasomatized lithospheric mantle. Trace element modelling confirms such an inference and suggests that the source was a phlogopite bearing mantle, located within the garnet stability zone.     

Satellite detection of earthquake thermal infrared precursors in Iran

Stress accumulated in rocks in tectonically active areas may manifest itself as electromagnetic radiation emission and temperature variation through a process of energy transformation. Land surface temperature (LST) changes before an impending earthquake can be detected with thermal infrared (TIR) sensors such as NOAA-AVHRR, Terra/Aqua-MODIS, etc. TIR anomalies produced by 10 recent earthquakes in Iran during the period of Jun 2002–Jun 2006 in the tectonically active belt have been studied using pre- and post-earthquake NOAA-AVHRR datasets. Data analysis revealed a transient TIR rise in LST ranging 2–13°C in and around epicentral areas. The thermal anomalies started developing about 1–10 days prior to the main event depending upon the magnitude and focal depth, and disappeared after the main shock. In the case of moderate earthquakes (<6 magnitude) a dual thermal peak instead of the single rise has been observed. This may lead us to understand that perhaps pre-event sporadic release of energy from stressed rocks leads to a reduction in magnitude of the main shock. This TIR temperature increment prior to an impending earthquake can be attributed to degassing from rocks under stress or to p-hole activation in the stressed rock volume and their further recombination at the rock–air interface. A precise correlation of LST maps of Bam and Zarand with InSAR-generated deformation maps also provides evidence that the thermal anomaly is a ground-related phenomenon, not an atmospheric one.     

Box fractal dimension as a measure of statistical homogeneity of jointed rock masses

A written computer programme to estimate the box fractal dimension (D_B) is verified by estimating D_B of the triadic Koch curve for which the theoretical D is known. The influence of a number of input parameters of the box-counting method on the accuracy of estimated D_B is evaluated using the same Koch curve. The employed size range of the applied box networks was found to be the parameter which has the strongest influence on the accuracy of estimated D_B. This indicated the importance of finding the range of self-similarity or self-affinity for the object considered to select the proper range for the box sizes and, in turn, to obtain accurate estimates of D_B. By calculating D_B for different block sizes sampled from three generated two-dimensional joint patterns, it is shown that D_B can capture the combined effect of joint-size distribution and joint density on the statistical homogeneity of rock masses. The spatial variation of D_B along a 350 m stretch of a tunnel in the shiplock area of the Three Gorges dam site is computed using the joint data mapped on the walls and the roof of the tunnel. This spatial variation of D_B is used, along with the visual geological evaluation of the joint trace maps of the tunnel, in making decisions about statistical homogeneity of the rock mass around the tunnel. The results obtained on statistically homogeneous regions were found to be quite similar to the results obtained from a previous statistical homogeneity investigation which incorporated the effect of number of joint sets and their orientation distributions, but not the spatial variation of D_B. It is recommended that the spatial variation of D_B is used, along with the results of other methods such as contingency table analysis and equal area plots, which incorporate the effect of joint orientation distribution, in addition to the geology of the site, in determining the statistically homogeneous regions of jointed rock masses.     

Private non-degree practitioners and spatial access to out-patient care in rural India

Most rural areas in the developing countries lack access to qualified out-patient (OPD) care. The gap in health services provision arises, due to lack of qualified doctors and is oftentimes filled by unqualified doctors who are also known as private non-degree practitioners (PNDPs). Despite their dominance, their presence is often neglected in access to health care studies. This leaves a scenario which lacks informal, but predominant, care. This paper uses a mix-method approach, combining exhaustive quantitative census of all health care providers along with location details in Geographic Information System to address the accessibility to PNDP. Longitudinal quantitative as well as spatial surveys were conducted for 3 years (2010, 2012 and 2013) in districts of Pratapgarh and Kanpur Dehat in state of Uttar Pradesh and Vaishali in Bihar state. The results of this study show that PNDPs account for 25 % of the all health care providers active across the study areas. The PNDPs are active in a radius of 2–5 km and are main workforce for the OPD care. Considering all health care providers PNDPs provide best potential accessibility to OPD care. If the PNDPs are removed from the scenario; remote areas will be the most affected ones, leaving them with almost no OPD care.