Earthquake recurrence models and occurrence probabilities of strong earthquakes in the North Aegean Trough (Greece)

The determination of strong earthquakes’ recurrence time above a predefined magnitude, associated with specific fault segments, is an important component of seismic hazard assessment. The occurrence of these earthquakes is neither periodic nor completely random but often clustered in time. This fact in connection with their limited number, due to shortage of the available catalogs, inhibits a deterministic approach for recurrence time calculation, and for this reason, application of stochastic processes is required. In this study, recurrence time determination in the area of North Aegean Trough (NAT) is developed by the application of time-dependent stochastic models, introducing an elastic rebound motivated concept for individual fault segments located in the study area. For this purpose, all the available information on strong earthquakes (historical and instrumental) with M_w ≥ 6.5 is compiled and examined for magnitude completeness. Two possible starting dates of the catalog are assumed with the same magnitude threshold, M_w ≥ 6.5 and divided into five data sets, according to a new segmentation model for the study area. Three Brownian Passage Time (BPT) models with different levels of aperiodicity are applied and evaluated with the Anderson–Darling test for each segment in both catalog data where possible. The preferable models are then used in order to estimate the occurrence probabilities of M_w ≥ 6.5 shocks on each segment of NAT for the next 10, 20, and 30 years since 01/01/2016. Uncertainties in probability calculations are also estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure. It must be mentioned that the provided results should be treated carefully because of their dependence to the initial assumptions. Such assumptions exhibit large variability and alternative means of these may return different final results.     

Variation in noble gas isotopic composition of gas samples from the Aegean arc, Greece

In contrast to most other arcs with oceanic plate subduction, the Aegean arc is characterized by continent–continent subduction. Noble gas abundances and isotopic compositions of 45 gas samples have been determined from 6 volcanoes along the arc, 2 islands in the back-arc region and 7 sites in the surrounding areas. The ³He/⁴He ratios of the samples ranged from 0.027R_A to 6.2R_A (R_A denotes the atmospheric ³He/⁴He ratio of 1.4×10⁻⁶), demonstrating that even the maximum ³He/⁴He ratio in the region is significantly lower than the maximum ratios of most oceanic subduction systems, which are equal to the MORB value of 8±1 R_A. Regional variations in the ³He/⁴He ratio were observed both along and across the arc. The maximum ³He/⁴He ratio was obtained from Nisyros volcano located in the eastern end of the arc, and the ratio decreased westward possibly reflecting the difference in potential degree of crustal assimilation or the present magmatic activity in each volcano. Across the volcanic arc, the ³He/⁴He ratio decreased with an increasing distance from the arc front, reaching a low ratio of 0.063R_A in Macedonia, which suggested a major contribution of radiogenic helium derived from the continental crust. At Nisyros, a temporal increase in ³He/⁴He ratio due to ascending subsurface magma was observed after the seismic crisis of 1995–1998 and mantle neon was possibly detected. The maximum ³He/⁴He ratio (6.2R_A) in the Aegean region, which is significantly lower than the MORB value, is not probably due to crustal assimilation at shallow depth or addition of slab-derived helium to MORB-like mantle wedge, but inherent characteristics of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) beneath the Aegean arc.     

The effect of air temperature and human thermal indices on mortality in Athens, Greece

This paper investigates whether there is any association between the daily mortality for the wider region of Athens, Greece and the thermal conditions, for the 10-year period 1992–2001. The daily mortality datasets were acquired from the Hellenic Statistical Service and the daily meteorological datasets, concerning daily maximum and minimum air temperature, from the Hellinikon/Athens meteorological station, established at the headquarters of the Greek Meteorological Service. Besides, the daily values of the thermal indices Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) were evaluated in order to interpret the grade of physiological stress. The first step was the application of Pearson’s χ ² test to the compiled contingency tables, resulting in that the probability of independence is zero (p?=?0.000); namely, mortality is in close relation to the air temperature and PET/UTCI. Furthermore, the findings extracted by the generalized linear models showed that, statistically significant relationships (p?<?0.01) between air temperature, PET, UTCI and mortality exist on the same day. More concretely, on one hand during the cold period (October–March), a 10°C decrease in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 13%, 15%, 2%, 7% and 6% of the probability having a death, respectively. On the other hand, during the warm period (April–September), a 10°C increase in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 3%, 1%, 10%, 3% and 5% of the probability having a death, respectively. Taking into consideration the time lag effect of the examined parameters on mortality, it was found that significant effects of 3-day lag during the cold period appears against 1-day lag during the warm period. In spite of the general aspect that cold conditions seem to be favourable factors for daily mortality, the air temperature and PET/UTCI exceedances over specific thresholds depending on the distribution reveal that, very hot conditions are risk factors for the daily mortality.     

Winter convective precipitation variability in southeastern Europe and its connection to middle tropospheric circulation for the 60-year period, 1950–2009

The inter-annual variability of winter convective precipitation rate (CPR) in southeastern Europe and its connection to 500?hPa geopotential height (GH) is examined for the period 1950–2009 by using factor analysis and canonical correlation analysis. Two GH centers of action for CPR are found. The first one is located over Italy and it is associated with the typical winter depression activity regime over the Mediterranean Sea, controlling CPR in southern Italy, the southern Balkans, west Asia Minor, and the adjacent seas. The second one is located over the British Isles and it is associated with blocking activity over western Europe being responsible for a CPR seesaw teleconnection between (1) northern Italy, the Alps and the northwestern Balkans and (2) the south central Mediterranean Sea, south of Sicily. A CPR decrease in most of the areas under study and a CPR increase in the south central Mediterranean Sea are found.     

Two-feldspar geothermometry: a review and revision for slowly cooled rocks

Recent improvements in the experimental and thermodynamic basis of two-feldspar geothermometry allow one to recover temperatures of coexistence more reliably. Some problems, however, persist: (1) the experimental solvi by Seck (1971a) and Elkins and Grove (1990) differ from each other; (2) it is not known to what extent Na–K–Ca exchange equilibrium is approached; (3) both solvi are probably metastable with regard to Al, Si order; (4) it is difficult to judge how closely high-temperature natural feldspars compare to this situation; (5) the thermodynamic treatment neglects phase transformations; (6) the temperature dependence of the Margules parameters used to model non-ideal mixing behaviour may not be linear; (7) it is not clear which expressions should be used to describe ideal activities. With these caveats in mind we treat the problem of retrograde resetting in high-grade metamorphic rocks that were slowly cooled under essentially dry conditions. Coexisting feldspars from such rocks commonly do not plot on a common isotherm. Thus temperatures derived from such pairs using any of the proposed two-feldspar geothermometers will necessarily be in error. We suggest that the non-equilibrium compositions result from retrograde intercrystalline K–Na exchange. This exchange continues after the plagioclase and alkali feldspar have already become essentially closed systems with respect to Al–Si exchange, which is a prerequisite for (Na,K)–Ca exchange. We use a modified version of the Fuhrman and Lindsley (1988) programme to reverse the K–Na exchange and derive concordant temperatures.     

Combining geographic information system, multicriteria evaluation techniques and fuzzy logic in siting MSW landfills

This study presents a methodology for siting municipal solid waste landfills, coupling geographic information systems (GIS), fuzzy logic, and multicriteria evaluation techniques. Both exclusionary and non-exclusionary criteria are used. Factors, i.e., non-exclusionary criteria, are divided in two distinct groups which do not have the same level of trade off. The first group comprises factors related to the physical environment, which cannot be expressed in terms of monetary cost and, therefore, they do not easily trade off. The second group includes those factors related to human activities, i.e., socioeconomic factors, which can be expressed as financial cost, thus showing a high level of trade off. GIS are used for geographic data acquisition and processing. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is the multicriteria evaluation technique used, enhanced with fuzzy factor standardization. Besides assigning weights to factors through the AHP, control over the level of risk and trade off in the siting process is achieved through a second set of weights, i.e., order weights, applied to factors in each factor group, on a pixel-by-pixel basis, thus taking into account the local site characteristics. The method has been applied to Evros prefecture (NE Greece), an area of approximately 4,000 km². The siting methodology results in two intermediate suitability maps, one related to environmental and the other to socioeconomic criteria. Combination of the two intermediate maps results in the final composite suitability map for landfill siting.     

High resolution spatiotemporal analysis of erosion risk per land cover category in Korçe region,Albania

Some recent land use changes in Albania, such as deforestation, cropland abandonment, and urban sprawl, have caused serious increase of erosion risk. The main objective of this study was to map erosion risk in Korçe region and assess the degree at which every land use is concerned. The G2 erosion model was applied, which can provide erosion maps and statistical figures at month-time intervals using input from free European and global geodatabases. The mapping results in Korçe region were derived at a 30-m cell size, which is an innovation for G2. Autumn-winter months were found to be the most erosive, with average erosion rates reaching the maximum in November and December, i.e. 2.62 and 2.36 t/ha, respectively, while the annual rate was estimated at 10.25 t/ha/yr. Natural grasslands, shurblands, mixed forests, and vineyards showed to exhibit the highest mean erosion rates, while shrublands, broad-leaved forests and natural grasslands were found to be the most extended land covers risky for non-sustainable erosion rates (i.e. >10 t/ha/yr). A detailed examination of the detected hot spots is now necessary by the competent authorities, in order to apply appropriate, site-specific conservation measures. Notably, use of SPOT VGT data did not prevent the maps from having extended gaps due to cloudiness. Sentinel-2 time series, freely available by the European Space Agency (ESA), have the potential to improve spatiotemporal coverage of V-factor, thus further empowering the G2 model, in the near future.     

Re–Os isotope evidence for mixed source components in carbonate-replacement Pb–Zn–Ag deposits in the Lavrion district,Attica, Greece

The Lavrion ore district contains carbonate-replacement and vein-type Pb–Zn–Ag deposits as well as low-grade porphyry Mo, Cu–Fe skarn, and minor breccia-hosted Pb–Zn–Cu sulfide mineralization. These ore types are spatially related to a Late Miocene granodiorite intrusion (7 to 10 Ma), and various sills and dikes of mafic to felsic composition. Samples of sphalerite and pyrite from the Ilarion carbonate replacement deposit, and galena from Vein 80 (vein-type mineralization) in the Adami deposit show heterogeneous Re–Os values. These values were partially disturbed by hydrothermal activity associated with the formation of hydrothermal veins (e.g., Vein 80). A plot of initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os versus 1/Os_common ratios for pyrite and sphalerite from the Ilarion deposit form a mixing line (r²?=?0.78) between high concentration crustal-like and low concentration mantle-like end-members, or two crustal end-members one of which was more radiogenic than the other. Based on the Re–Os systematics and previously published geological and geochemical evidence, the most plausible explanation for the Re–Os isotope data is that ore-forming components were derived from mixed sources, one of which was a radiogenic crustal source from schists and carbonates probably near intrusion centers and the other, intrusive rocks in the district that are less radiogenic. Although the Re and Os concentrations of galena from Vein 80 are above background values they cannot be used as a chronometer. However, the results of the current study suggest that although pyrite, sphalerite, and galena are poor geochronometers in this ore deposit, due to partial open-system behavior, they still yield valuable information on the origin of the source rocks in the formation of bedded replacement and vein mineralization in the Lavrion district.     

Mineralogy of telluride-bearing epithermal ores in the Kassiteres-Sappes area, western Thrace, Greece

Summary The Kassiteres-Sappes district represents a multi-centered, porphyry-epithermal system developed during the Oligocene to Miocene at a composite calc-alkaline to high-K calc-alkaline volcanic edifice. Precious and base metal mineralization postdates the emplacement of dacite and rhyolite porphyries and is partly superimposed on earlier microdiorite-related porphyry-style mineralization exposed at the Koryfes Hill prospect. A second mineralized porphyry-type system genetically related to a dacite porphyry body developed near the St Demetrios deposit. Tellurides occur mainly at the St Barbara prospect and the St Demetrios deposit. Based on petrographic, electron microprobe, and scanning electron microscope analyses, hessite, petzite, sylvanite, altaite, stützite and native tellurium occur in the St Barbara prospect. These tellurium-bearing minerals are hosted in intermediate-sulfidation type veins and accompanied by pyrite, chalcopyrite, tetrahedrite-group minerals, galena and native gold/electrum. The St Demetrios mineralization includes hessite, altaite, stützite, and tetradymite in close spatial relation to a high-sulfidation assemblage composed of enargite, chalcopyrite, goldfieldite, and native gold. Tellurides were deposited at logfTe₂ values of −8.5 to −7.1 and logfS₂ values of −10.7 to −7.9 (275 °C). The ore systems are characterized by Au, Ag, Te, Bi, and Mo, which suggests a magmatic contribution to the mineralizing fluids. Ore-forming components were likely derived from both the dacite and rhyolite porphyries.