Current Status and Future Challenges of Weather Radar Polarimetry: Bridging the Gap between Radar Meteorology/Hydrology/Engineering and Numerical Weather Prediction

After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve weather observations,quantification, forecasting, and warnings. The weather radar networks in China and other countries are also being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Now, with radar polarimetry technology having matured, and PRD available both nationally and globally, it is important to understand the current status and future challenges and opportunities. The potential impact of PRD has been limited by their oftentimes subjective and empirical use. More importantly, the community has not begun to regularly derive from PRD the state parameters, such as water mixing ratios and number concentrations, used in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models.In this review, we summarize the current status of weather radar polarimetry, discuss the issues and limitations of PRD usage, and explore potential approaches to more efficiently use PRD for quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting based on statistical retrieval with physical constraints where prior information is used and observation error is included. This approach aligns the observation-based retrievals favored by the radar meteorology community with the model-based analysis of the NWP community. We also examine the challenges and opportunities of polarimetric phased array radar research and development for future weather observation.     

Growing new generations of critical zone scientists

Critical zone (CZ) science is entering its second decade. A new generation of scientists is emerging trained specifically in CZ science and are contributing to advances in environmental science across disciplines. Concurrently, the global scope of CZ science is being elevated as new countries invest in CZ observatories. Global CZ science has great potential to address a diverse array of questions beyond any single discipline. In this commentary we discuss a series of CZ science grand challenges that should be targeted by early‐career researchers: understanding water availability in the CZ; expanding CZ science into new environments; communicating the societal relevance of CZ science including earthcasting to the public; seamlessly integrating biological sciences within the CZ framework; and scaling CZ processes over large spatial and temporal gradients. Targeting these grand challenges will push CZ science well into the future. We also highlight mechanisms for increased leadership within the CZ community. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bridging a seasonal torrent: The Melfa river,southern Lazio,Italy

The Melfa River is a torrent of the intramontane Lower Liri Valley, which has been a difficult barrier to cross since ancient times. It is dry and can be forded during the summer, but it experiences high floods during rainy reasons, with recurrent disruption of bridges. In Iron Age and early Roman times, fords and bridges were located near the confluence of the river with the valley plain, servicing the ancient Via Pedemontana. Later, faster routes with bridges were moved toward the flatter central area of the valley. There, Romans selected a crossing through wide braided reaches, taking advantage of fording, but consistently losing low lying, long bridges. Traces of one and possibly two such bridges remain along what was the Via Latina, from Fregellae to Aquino. For such bridges, the Romans used relatively strong piers, probably linked with readily detachable (by floods) and replaceable, wooden, flat roadways. The strategy of Medieval and Modern civilizations was instead to bridge the river in a more permanent way, with arches across the nearby deep gorges whose banks are composed of stable calcareous conglomerates and sandstones.     

Magnetotelluric image of the crust and upper mantle in the backarc of the northwestern Argentinean Andes

Magnetotelluric data from the backarc of the Central Andes in NW Argentinawere re-examined by employing impedance tensor decomposition and 2-D inversion and modelling techniques. The data in the period range of 50–15 000 s were collected on a profile of 220 km length reaching from the Eastern Cordillera across the Santa Barbara System to the Andean foreland of the Argentinean Chaco.
After a dimensionality analysis, data from most sites were treated as regional 2-D. The exception was the eastern section of the profile, where the magnetotelluric transfer functions for periods ≤ 1000 s reflect a 3-D earth. Application of two tensor decomposition schemes yielded a regional strike direction of N–S, which is the azimuth of the Central Andean mountain chains. Several 2-D models were obtained by pseudo- and full 2-D Occam inversion schemes. Special emphasis was placed on the inversion of phase data to reduce the influence of static shifts in the apparent resistivity data. The smooth inversion models all show a good conductor at depth. A final model was then calculated using a finite element forward algorithm.
The most prominent feature of the resulting model is a conductor which rises from depths of 180 km below the Chaco region to 80 km beneath the Santa Barbara System and the Eastern Cordillera. Its interpretation as a rise of the electrical asthenosphere is supported by seismic attenuation studies. Magnetotelluric results, surface heat-flow distribution in the area, and the electrical properties of crustal and mantle rocks suggest that the upper mantle is predominantly ductile beneath the Eastern Cordillera and the western Santa Barbara System. This generally agrees with anelastic seismic attenuation models of the area and is useful in discriminating between models of Q quality factor distribution.     

The role of endolithic cyanobacteria in the formation of lithified laminae in Bahamian stromatolites

The microboring activity of endolithic cyanobacteria plays a major role in the formation of the dominant lithified laminae in modern marine stromatolites in the Exuma Cays, Bahamas. These stromatolites are composed primarily of fine-grained carbonate sand that is trapped and bound by the filamentous cyanobacteria Schizothrix sp.. Periodic introduction of coccoid endolithic cyanobacteria Solentia sp. during hiatuses in stromatolite growth associated with very low rates of sedimentation results in the formation of lithified horizons, 200–1000 μm thick. These layers consist of micritized grains that are welded together at point contacts. The micritization is caused by extensive microboring and carbonate precipitation within boreholes concurrent with endolithic activity. Grain welding occurs when boreholes cross from one grain to another at point contacts. Thus, microboring destroys original grain textures but, at the same time, plays a constructional role in stromatolite growth by forming lithified layers of welded grains. These lateral bands of fused carbonate grains help to stabilize and preserve the stromatolite deposits.     

Carbonate systems along nutrient and temperature gradients: some sedimentological and geochemical constraints

Research over the past several decades has clearly demonstrated that changes in the ocean environment have had major impacts on carbonate systems. Changes in climate, ocean circulation and seafloor spreading rates have influenced temperature and seawater chemistry, including carbonate saturation state and nutrient availability, and thereby have determined boundary conditions for the biota that form carbonate platforms. In turn, the biota determine accumulation rates and facies zonations, thus controlling platform geometry and facies dynamics. In the first section of this paper, we examine how nutrient availability influences carbonate facies associations. We first discuss the role of temperature and nutrient gradients in the modern ocean and their influence on biotic associations. Then we discuss how carbonate sedimentation can be characterized along nutrient gradients. In the second section, we review proxies currently used to reconstruct paleoproductivity in open ocean environments and discuss their applicability to neritic carbonate systems. We highlight the variety of existing proxies and their limitations, and suggest that multiple lines of evidence are needed for valid interpretations. Our short review discusses sedimentological, biogenic, and geochemical proxies that can be used to reconstruct past nutrient fluxes and to constrain paleoceanographic controls over the distribution of carbonate associations. However, it also reveals that more data and case studies are needed that integrate shallow and deep water carbonate sequences and elucidate the links between temperature vs. nutrient supplies changes and facies in ancient carbonate sequences.

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The future that may (or may not) come: How framing changes responses to uncertainty in climate change communications

Communicating possible effects of climate change inevitably involves uncertainty. Because people are generally averse to uncertainty, this activity has the potential to undermine effective action more than stimulate it. The present research considered how framing climate change predictions differently might moderate the tendency for uncertainty to undermine individual action. Two studies (Ns = 88 and 120) show that higher uncertainty combined with a negative frame (highlighting possible losses) decreased individual intentions to behave environmentally. However when higher uncertainty was combined with a positive frame (highlighting the possibility of losses not materializing) this produced stronger intentions to act. Study 2 revealed that these effects of uncertainty were mediated through feelings of efficacy. These results suggest that uncertainty is not an inevitable barrier to action, provided communicators frame climate change messages in ways that trigger caution in the face of uncertainty.     

Processes of carbonate precipitation in modern microbial mats

Microbial mats are ecosystems that arguably greatly affected the conditions of the biosphere on Earth through geological time. These laminated organosedimentary systems, which date back to > 3.4 Ga bp, are characterized by high metabolic rates, and coupled to this, rapid cycling of major elements on very small (mm-µm) scales. The activity of the mat communities has changed Earth's redox conditions (i.e. oxidation state) through oxygen and hydrogen production. Interpretation of fossil microbial mats and their potential role in alteration of the Earth's geochemical environment is challenging because these mats are generally not well preserved.Preservation of microbial mats in the fossil record can be enhanced through carbonate precipitation, resulting in the formation of lithified mats, or microbialites. Several types of microbially-mediated mineralization can be distinguished, including biologically-induced and biologically influenced mineralization. Biologically-induced mineralization results from the interaction between biological activity and the environment. Biologically-influenced mineralization is defined as passive mineralization of organic matter (biogenic or abiogenic in origin), whose properties influence crystal morphology and composition. We propose to use the term organomineralization sensu lato as an umbrella term encompassing biologically influenced and biologically induced mineralization. Key components of organomineralization sensu lato are the “alkalinity” engine (microbial metabolism and environmental conditions impacting the calcium carbonate saturation index) and an organic matrix comprised of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS), which may provide a template for carbonate nucleation. Here we review the specific role of microbes and the EPS matrix in various mineralization processes and discuss examples of modern aquatic (freshwater, marine and hypersaline) and terrestrial microbialites.     

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (?22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.     

The Functions and Values of Fringing Salt Marshes in Northern New England,USA

We compared the functions and values of fringing salt marshes to those of meadow marshes along the southern Maine/New Hampshire coast. Differences included soil organic matter content, plant species richness, and percent cover of high and low-marsh species. More sediment was trapped per unit area in fringing marshes than in meadow marshes, but this difference was not significant. Similarities included aboveground and belowground peak season biomass and the ability to dampen wave energy. Both marsh types reduced the height of waves coming onto the marsh surface by 63% only 7 m into the marsh. Fringing marshes are diverse in terms of their physical characteristics (width, length, slope, elevation, soils). Despite their small size, they are valuable components of estuaries, performing many ecological functions to the same degree as nearby meadow marshes. More effort should be made to include them in regional efforts to conserve and restore coastal habitats.