Prediction of annual average sedimentation rates in an estuary using numerical models with verification against core data – Mahurangi Estuary, New Zealand

Modelling sedimentation rates within an estuary over the time scale of years to decades is a difficult undertaking. The complex nature of sediment transport and the compounding errors associated with making predictions over longer time-scales introduce a high degree of uncertainty when predicting the fate of catchment-derived sediments. In this paper a methodology is presented that links catchment and estuary models that simulate the runoff of sediment from catchments and its subsequent dispersal within the estuary to provide estimates of annual sedimentation rates within the estuary. The models are calibrated against short-term field data and the methodology is validated against sedimentation rates obtained from sediment cores.The catchment of the Mahurangi Estuary delivers between 3800 and 39,000 tonnes/yr with an average load of just over 15,000 tonnes/yr being delivered to the estuary. Data from sediment cores show that over 80% of this load is deposited within the estuary resulting in sedimentation rates of 25 mm/yr in the upper estuary and less than 5 mm/yr in the lower sections of the estuary. The methodology predicts these rates of sedimentation across a range of sub environments within the estuary.     

Coherent eddies and temperature structure functions for three contrasting surfaces. Part I: Ramp model with finite microfront time

Air temperature time series within and above canopies reveal ramp patternsassociated with coherent eddies that are responsible for most of thevertical transport of sensible heat. Van Atta used a simple step-changeramp model to analyse the coherent part of air temperature structurefunctions. However, his ocean data, and our own measurements for aDouglas-fir forest, straw mulch, and bare soil, reveal that even withoutlinearization his model cannot account for the observed decrease of thecubic structure function for small time lag. We found that a ramp model inwhich the rapid change at the end of the ramp occurs in a finite microfronttime can describe this decrease very well, and predict at least relativemagnitudes of microfront times between different surfaces. Averagerecurrence time for ramps, determined by analysis of the cubic structurefunction with the new ramp model, agreed well with values determined usingthe Mexican Hat wavelet transform, except at lower levels within theforest. Ramp frequency above the forest and mulch scaled very well withwind speed at the canopy top divided by canopy height. Within the forest,ramp frequency did not vary systematically with height. This is inaccordance with the idea that large-scale canopy turbulence is mostlygenerated by instability of the mean canopy wind profile, similar to aplane mixing layer. The straw mulch and bare soil experiments uniquelyextend measurements of temperature structure functions and ramp frequencyto the smallest scales possible in the field.     

Energy Balance Closure Using Eddy Covariance Above Two Different Land Surfaces and Implications for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Flux Measurements

Components of the surface energy balance of a mature boreal jack pine forest and a jack pine clearcut were analysed to determine the causes of the imbalance that is commonly observed in micrometeorological measurements. At the clearcut site (HJP02), a significant portion of the imbalance was caused by: (i) the overestimation of net radiation (R _n ) due to the inclusion of the tower in the field of view of the downward facing radiometers, and (ii) the underestimation of the latent heat flux (λE) due to the damping of high frequency fluctuations in the water vapour mixing ratio by the sample tube of the closed-path infrared gas analyzer. Loss of low-frequency covariance induced by insufficient averaging time as well as systematic advection of fluxes away from the eddy-covariance (EC) tower were discounted as significant issues. Spatial and temporal distributions of the total surface-layer heat flux (T), i.e. the sum of sensible heat flux (H) and λE, were well behaved and differences between the relative magnitudes of the turbulent fluxes for several investigated energy balance closure (C) classes were observed. Therefore, it can be assumed that micrometeorological processes that affected all turbulent fluxes similarly did not cause the variation in C. Turbulent fluxes measured at the clearcut site should not be forced to close the energy balance. However, at the mature forest site (OJP), loss of low-frequency covariance contributed significantly to the systematic imbalance when a 30-min averaging time was used, but the application of averaging times that were long enough to capture all of the low-frequency covariance was inadequate to resolve all of the high-frequency covariance. Although we found qualitative similarity between T and the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO₂), forcing T to closure while retaining the Bowen ratio and applying the same factor to CO₂ fluxes (F _C ) cannot be generally recommended since it remains uncertain to what extent long wavelength contributions affect the relationship between T, F _C and C.     

Assessing scalar concentration footprint climatology and land surface impacts on tall-tower CO2 concentration measurements in the boreal forest of central Saskatchewan,Canada

Reducing the large uncertainties in current estimates of CO₂ sources and sinks at regional scales (10²–10⁵ km²) is fundamental to improving our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Continuous high-precision CO₂ concentration measurements on a tower within the planetary boundary layer contain information on regional carbon fluxes; however, its spatial representativeness is generally unknown. In this study, we developed a footprint model (Simple Analytical Footprint model based on Eulerian coordinates for scalar Concentration [SAFE-C]) and applied it to two CO₂ concentration towers in central Canada: the East Trout Lake 106-m-tall tower (54°21′N, 104°59′W) and the Candle Lake 28-m-high tower (53°59′N, 105°07′W). Results show that the ETL tower’s annual concentration footprints were around 10³–10⁵ km². The monthly footprint climatologies in summer were 1.5–2 times larger than in winter. The impacts of land surface carbon flux associated with heterogeneous distribution of vegetation types on the CO₂ concentration measurements were different for the different heights, varied with a range of ±5 % to ±10 % among four heights. This study indicates that concentration footprint climatology analysis is important in interpreting the seasonal, annual and inter-annual variations of tower measured CO₂ concentration data and is essential for comparing and scaling regional carbon flux estimates using top-down or bottom-up approaches.     

The effect of environmental change on human migration

The influence of the environment and environmental change is largely unrepresented in standard theories of migration, whilst recent debates on climate change and migration focus almost entirely on displacement and perceive migration to be a problem. Drawing on an increasing evidence base that has assessed elements of the influence of the environment on migration, this paper presents a new framework for understanding the effect of environmental change on migration. The framework identifies five families of drivers which affect migration decisions: economic, political, social, demographic and environmental drivers. The environment drives migration through mechanisms characterised as the availability and reliability of ecosystem services and exposure to hazard. Individual migration decisions and flows are affected by these drivers operating in combination, and the effect of the environment is therefore highly dependent on economic, political, social and demographic context. Environmental change has the potential to affect directly the hazardousness of place. Environmental change also affects migration indirectly, in particular through economic drivers, by changing livelihoods for example, and political drivers, through affecting conflicts over resources, for example. The proposed framework, applicable to both international and internal migration, emphasises the role of human agency in migration decisions, in particular the linked role of family and household characteristics on the one hand, and barriers and facilitators to movement on the other in translating drivers into actions. The framework can be used to guide new research, assist with the evaluation of policy options, and provide a context for the development of scenarios representing a range of plausible migration futures.     

Application of a water balance model to estimating hay growth in the peace river region

Abstract

A model that uses daily climate data for calculating hay crop growth in the Peace River region of British Columbia was developed and evaluated using data obtained over four growing seasons. The performances of the ratio of growth to transpiration and the ratio of growth to transpiration (J) divided by vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in estimating crop growth were compared. Transpiration was calculated by subtracting evaporation losses from the soil and foliage from the calculated evapotranspiration. Evapotranspiration was calculated using solar radiation and air temperature, and a one‐layer root zone water balance model, which accounted for soil water supply limitation. Soil water storage measurements showed that the water balance model worked well. The model provided satisfactory estimates of growing season yield of above‐ground dry matter. The use of the ratio of growth toT/ vpd showed no improvement in growth estimation over the ratio of growth to transpiration.     

Petrographic and coalification variations in the Eastern Southland lignites, New Zealand

The Upper Oligocene to Lower Miocene Gore Lignite Measures of Eastern Southland accumulated in humid temperature to subtropical wet forest swamps in a coastal delta-plain paleoenvironment. The lignites have relatively low ash and low sulphur contents. They are xylitic, contain abundant resinite and range from poorly to strongly gelified. Petrographically, they are relatively uniform and dominated by humic macerals.The Eastern Southland Lignite Field can be divided into a southern (lower-rank) and a northern (higher-rank) area. The lower-rank lignites have bed moisture contents of 55–61% whereas the higher-rank lignites have bed moistures of 42–46%. In both areas the lignite seams are within 200 m of the surface but are probably separated by faults and have undergone separate burial and tectonic histories. Burial depths are believed to range from 250 m for lower-rank to 1100 m for higher-rank lignites. The rank increase from south to north is largely the result of compaction-induced reduction in porosity and consequent dewatering and is not accompanied by any notable increase in gelification. For these lignites, there is a linear relationship between bed moisture and fixed carbon but a significant shift away from the linear relationship between volatile matter and specific energy and bed moisture. Also, the higher-rank northern lignites have higher H:C and lower O:C atomic ratios than the southern lower-rank lignites. These geochemical changes are heat- and depth-related and represent changes in functional group composition that are independent of observed gelification.     

Factors affecting the canopy resistance of a Douglas-fir forest

The physiological nature of canopy resistance was studied by comparing the stomatal and canopy resistance of a 10-m high Douglas-fir forest. Stomatal resistance of the needles was measured using porometry, while the canopy resistance was calculated using energy balance/Bowen ratio measurements of evapotranspiration. A typical steady increase in the forest canopy resistance during daytime hours, even at high soil water potentials, was observed. A similar trend in the stomatal resistance indicated that increasing canopy resistance during the daytime was caused by gradually closing stomata. During a dry period when soil water potentials declined from 0 to –10.5 bars, the mean daytime value of canopy resistance increased in proportion to the mean daytime value of the stomatal resistance. Values of canopy resistance calculated from stomatal resistance and leaf area index measurements agreed well with those calculated from energy balance measurements. The dependences of stomatal resistance on light, vapour pressure deficit, twig and soil water potentials art summarized.     

On the response of yielding seismically isolated structures

This paper investigates the seismic response of yielding isolated structures. To establish a general understanding of the nonlinear response of seismically isolated structures, this study first investigates the nonlinear response of isolated structures subjected to steady‐state harmonic motion and nonlinear transient ground excitation. The response of both viscously damped and hysteretically damped isolation systems is investigated in three phases. Initially, basic insights are gained through simple nonlinear two degrees of freedom (2‐DOF) models subjected to harmonic motion of varying frequencies. Next, the transient response analysis of the nonlinear 2‐DOF model is investigated for a wide range of isolation system and superstructure properties. The results obtained from both approaches indicate that the yielding behavior of a structure on an isolation system is significantly different from that of the comparable fixed‐base structure. Finally, the response of the nonlinear 2‐DOF system model is compared with that of a 15‐story, three‐dimensional model. Based on the results of these analytical investigations, some important considerations for the design of seismically isolated structures are presented. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.